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Thread: Seattle eateries closing as $15 minimum wage approaches

  1. #21
    Veteran Member Southern Dad's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by labrea View Post
    Umm - the $15.00 minimum wage (for tip earners) doesn't go into effect until 2021.



    But, carry on…
    Quote Originally Posted by labrea View Post
    A $15.00 minimum wage that doesn't go into effect for years.
    Okay so the minimum wage going to $11 on 4/1/2015, $13 on 1/1/2016, $15 on 1/1/2017… And before you say that doesn't apply to tipped wage and make yourself look ignorant, read up a little on tipped wage. If an employee doesn't make enough tips to make the regular minimum wage the employer is responsible for the difference, so it does apply to tipped wage.

    Here's some interesting reading, but if people get laid off because of it, then screw them, right? Personally, I'd love to see franchises close up shop in Seattle. Send them a message. Want to bet new businesses will build OUTSIDE of the city limits rather than inside?
    Thanks from texmaster

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by texmaster View Post
    Your ignorance of economics is just painfully sad.
    Prediction from ALEC:

    Last year, the California chapter of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) projected the potential negative effects of the state’s 2013 legislation that raises California’s minimum wage rate to $9 per hour in 2014 and again to $10 by 2016.9 It estimated the increase to the wage rate would shrink the California economy by $5.7 billion in the next 10 years and result in approximately 68,000 jobs being cut from the state. It further projected that 63 percent of the estimated 68,000 jobs lost would be from small businesses that could no longer afford to pay their employees.10

    The bottom line is that someone must pay for the costs associated with an increased minimum wage. Often, because a business cannot pay these costs, they are paid for by the individuals the minimum wage is intended to help—low-skilled, undereducated indi- visuals—as they lose out on job opportunities.

    http://www.alec.org/wp-content/uploa...nimum_wage.pdf
    The reality so far:

    Ben Casselman at FiveThirtyEight noted last month that no state added more nonfarm payroll jobs from March 2013 to March 2014 than California, a total of 325,000 over the last year. That puts the Golden State close to its pre-recession employment peak.

    When we factor in agriculture, military, and miscellaneous federal government jobs — sectors that EMSI tracks with our comprehensive data — California had 293,000 fewer jobs in 2013 than at its low in 2007, a 2% decline. Yet according to EMSI’s latest data release, it had the most total job gains of any state from 2010 to 2013 (904,000) and the most new jobs from 2012 to 2013 (341,000). Both marks rank sixth per capita among all states, including Washington, D.C. (for a per-capita ranking of all states, see here).

    Breaking Down California's Jobs Comeback - Forbes
    Thanks from Panzareta and OldGaffer

  3. #23
    Southern Strategy Liberal OldGaffer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southern Dad View Post
    Okay so the minimum wage going to $11 on 4/1/2015, $13 on 1/1/2016, $15 on 1/1/2017… And before you say that doesn't apply to tipped wage and make yourself look ignorant, read up a little on tipped wage. If an employee doesn't make enough tips to make the regular minimum wage the employer is responsible for the difference, so it does apply to tipped wage.

    Here's some interesting reading, but if people get laid off because of it, then screw them, right? Personally, I'd love to see franchises close up shop in Seattle. Send them a message. Want to bet new businesses will build OUTSIDE of the city limits rather than inside?
    My guess, there will still be plenty of Restaurants in Seattle, and the unemployment rate will be no higher. But you can hope for the worst possible outcome if you like.

    Lets look at some other places that have higher minimum wages and see how they are doing, shall we?

    States That Raised Their Minimum Wages Are Experiencing Faster Job Growth
    Think a higher minimum wage is a job killer? Think again: The states that raised their minimum wages on January 1 have seen higher employment growth since then than the states that kept theirs at the same rate.

    The minimum wage went up in 13 states — Arizona, Connecticut, Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington — either thanks to automatic increases in line with inflation or new legislation, as Ben Wolcott reports in his analysis at the Center for Economic and Policy Research. The average change in employment for those states over the first five months of the year as compared with the last five of 2013 is .99 percent, while the average for all remaining states is .68 percent.

    Digging deeper, all but one of those states are experiencing increases in employment, and nine of them have seen growth above the median rate.
    wolcott-2014-06-30_494.jpg

    Wolcott’s analysis builds on a previous one from Goldman Sachs, which did the same evaluation for just January and compares it to December of last year. It found that the states that had minimum wage increases experienced faster job growth than those without a raise.

    This doesn’t mean that increasing the minimum wage necessarily creates more jobs. “While this kind of simple exercise can’t establish causality, it does provide evidence against theoretical negative employment effects of minimum-wage increases,” Wolcott writes. Indeed, it adds to the evidence that higher minimum wages may not hurt job growth as much as some have warned. Washington has the highest minimum wage and saw the biggest increase in small business jobs last year. Its job growth has also remained steady and above average in the 15 years since it raised its wage. When economists studied state-level minimum wage increases over two decades they didn’t find any conclusive evidence that the raises impacted job creation.

    That’s all good news for the ten states that have increased their minimum wages this year. Massachusetts went the furthest, raising its wage to $11 by 2017, but three — Hawaii, Maryland, and Connecticut — passed the $10.10 minimum wage being pushed at the federal level by Democrats and Vermont increased its wage to $10.50. And some cities have gone even further, with Seattle enacting a $15 minimum wage.
    States That Raised Their Minimum Wages Are Experiencing Faster Job Growth | ThinkProgress
    Progress in raising the entire country’s minimum wage has stalled, though. Republicans blocked a bill that would have increased it to $10.10 an hour.
    So the evidence tells me that the nay sayers are full of shit, no surprise here.
    Thanks from Hollywood

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Michael J View Post
    Yet you can't cite any specific cases where a business has closed because they have to pay their employees more. Are you so naive that you don't understand that arguments and predictions must be based on facts? Listen to this:

    Cities, too, have enacted laws raising pay for low-wage workers. In 2003, Santa Fe, New Mexico adopted a citywide $8.50 an hour living-wage law with regular cost-of-living increases. At the time, Sam Goldenberg, a business leader, predicted that the law "would be a disaster for the businesses in Santa Fe." And restaurateur Al Lucero called the plan economically irresponsible and argued that "people will be so content with $8.50 or $10.50 an hour that they'll have no desire to improve themselves." Nearly 10 years later, Santa Fe has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the state at 5.1 percent. Jeff Mitchell, a senior research scientist at the University of New Mexico's Bureau of Business and Economic Research, found "no evidence of adverse effects" from the wage hike. Santa Fe's tourism industry is doing fine. Travel + Leisure magazine last year listed Santa Fe in its top 10 US and Canadian travel destinations for the 11th consecutive year. In 2003, San Francisco voters also adopted a citywide minimum-wage law. The Golden Gate Restaurant Association called it a job killer that would "bankrupt many restaurants." The Association of Realtors said that many hospitality industry workers were "likely to receive pink slips and join the ranks of the unemployed." Wrong again. A 2007 study by University of California economists found that after San Francisco's minimum wage went up, restaurant growth was higher in the city than in neighboring East Bay cities. In December 2012, the city's unemployment rate was 6.5 percent, well below the statewide average, and job growth in bars and restaurants has led the region's post-recession recovery."]Cities, too, have enacted laws raising pay for low-wage workers. In 2003, Santa Fe, New Mexico adopted a citywide $8.50 an hour living-wage law with regular cost-of-living increases. At the time, Sam Goldenberg, a business leader, predicted that the law "would be a disaster for the businesses in Santa Fe." And restaurateur Al Lucero called the plan economically irresponsible and argued that "people will be so content with $8.50 or $10.50 an hour that they'll have no desire to improve themselves."

    Nearly 10 years later, Santa Fe has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the state at 5.1 percent. Jeff Mitchell, a senior research scientist at the University of New Mexico's Bureau of Business and Economic Research, found "no evidence of adverse effects" from the wage hike. Santa Fe's tourism industry is doing fine. Travel + Leisure magazine last year listed Santa Fe in its top 10 US and Canadian travel destinations for the 11th consecutive year.

    In 2003, San Francisco voters also adopted a citywide minimum-wage law. The Golden Gate Restaurant Association called it a job killer that would "bankrupt many restaurants." The Association of Realtors said that many hospitality industry workers were "likely to receive pink slips and join the ranks of the unemployed."

    Wrong again. A 2007 study by University of California economists found that after San Francisco's minimum wage went up, restaurant growth was higher in the city than in neighboring East Bay cities. In December 2012, the city's unemployment rate was 6.5 percent, well below the statewide average, and job growth in bars and restaurants has led the region's post-recession recovery.
    Mr. Michael,

    You can't really use Santa Fe to compare to cities like Seattle, Oakland, etc. First, Santa Fe is a moderately sized city, with only about 85,000 living in the city and county. Second, it has always had the lowest unemployment rate in New Mexico, so that is not a measure. The large tourist industry combined with the seat of State Government and the State Penitentiary beling located there keeps unemployment low, good times or bad. Third, it is an extremely rich community, with a large percentage of the homes being second homes owned by rich people that live elsewhere. As such, these people are not part of the work force. However, a lot of workers do not live within the city limits, but rather, live in the county or commute from Espanola. Ergo, the unemployment rate is skewed downward because the eligiable pool of workers is skewed down, and the number of workers is skewed up.

    San Francisco may also not be a good measure for a number of reasons. The first is the tourist and high tech industry growth is fueling post-econ9omic recovery, not the job growth in bars and restaurants. As such, you have the same thing in Santa Fe, i.e., there are actually more workers commuting into the city than the eligible pool of workers would reflect such that the unemployment numbers are skewed downward. One think I have noticed in San Francisco, when San Francisco initiated manditory health insurance, I started noticing a surcharge put on the bill. That did two things; first, I generally ate less, and less often in San Francisco, and second, I lowered my tip down. Recently, following the latest minimum wage increase, there has been a surcharge added to a lot of restaurant bills, further lessening what I order, and what I tip.

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southern Dad View Post
    Okay so the minimum wage going to $11 on 4/1/2015, $13 on 1/1/2016, $15 on 1/1/2017… And before you say that doesn't apply to tipped wage and make yourself look ignorant, read up a little on tipped wage. If an employee doesn't make enough tips to make the regular minimum wage the employer is responsible for the difference, so it does apply to tipped wage.

    Here's some interesting reading, but if people get laid off because of it, then screw them, right? Personally, I'd love to see franchises close up shop in Seattle. Send them a message. Want to bet new businesses will build OUTSIDE of the city limits rather than inside?
    From your link:

    Schedule 2 employers (500 or fewer employees in the U.S.) Schedule 2 employers shall pay each employee an hourly minimum wage of at least:
    $10.00 by April 1, 2015
    $10.50 by January 1, 2016
    $11.00 by January 1, 2017
    $11.50 by January 1, 2018
    $12.00 by January 1, 2019
    $13.50 by January 1, 2020
    $15.00 by January 1, 2021
    $15.75 by January 1, 2022
    $16.50 by January 1, 2023
    $17.25 by January 1, 2024


    Thread title: Seattle eateries closing as $15 minimum wage approaches

    How does it make sense to claim restaurants are closing now because of a minimum wage increase to $15.00 an hour that won't go into effect until 2021?
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  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by labrea View Post
    Prediction from ALEC:



    The reality so far:
    Like you said, it hasn't hit yet.

  7. #27
    Veteran Member Southern Dad's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by labrea View Post
    From your link:

    Schedule 2 employers (500 or fewer employees in the U.S.) Schedule 2 employers shall pay each employee an hourly minimum wage of at least:
    $10.00 by April 1, 2015
    $10.50 by January 1, 2016
    $11.00 by January 1, 2017
    $11.50 by January 1, 2018
    $12.00 by January 1, 2019
    $13.50 by January 1, 2020
    $15.00 by January 1, 2021
    $15.75 by January 1, 2022
    $16.50 by January 1, 2023
    $17.25 by January 1, 2024


    Thread title: Seattle eateries closing as $15 minimum wage approaches

    How does it make sense to claim restaurants are closing now because of a minimum wage increase to $15.00 an hour that won't go into effect until 2021?
    So it is your premise that these business closing has nothing to do with the minimum wage being increased, Seattle has just become a crappy place to try and run a business?
    Thanks from texmaster

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kallie Knoetze View Post
    Mr. Michael,

    You can't really use Santa Fe to compare to cities like Seattle, Oakland, etc. First, Santa Fe is a moderately sized city, with only about 85,000 living in the city and county. Second, it has always had the lowest unemployment rate in New Mexico, so that is not a measure. The large tourist industry combined with the seat of State Government and the State Penitentiary beling located there keeps unemployment low, good times or bad. Third, it is an extremely rich community, with a large percentage of the homes being second homes owned by rich people that live elsewhere. As such, these people are not part of the work force. However, a lot of workers do not live within the city limits, but rather, live in the county or commute from Espanola. Ergo, the unemployment rate is skewed downward because the eligiable pool of workers is skewed down, and the number of workers is skewed up.

    San Francisco may also not be a good measure for a number of reasons. The first is the tourist and high tech industry growth is fueling post-econ9omic recovery, not the job growth in bars and restaurants. As such, you have the same thing in Santa Fe, i.e., there are actually more workers commuting into the city than the eligible pool of workers would reflect such that the unemployment numbers are skewed downward. One think I have noticed in San Francisco, when San Francisco initiated manditory health insurance, I started noticing a surcharge put on the bill. That did two things; first, I generally ate less, and less often in San Francisco, and second, I lowered my tip down. Recently, following the latest minimum wage increase, there has been a surcharge added to a lot of restaurant bills, further lessening what I order, and what I tip.
    Overall, requiring San Francisco restaurants to provide their employees with health insurance doesn't seem to have hurt their business.

    San Francisco Leads in 2013 Restaurant Visits, Reveals OpenTable Index

    San Francisco Leads in 2013 Restaurant Visits, Reveals OpenTable Index - FSR magazine

  9. #29
    Veteran Member Panzareta's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Michael J View Post
    Your simplistic, black-and-white knowledge of economics is ignorant.
    I had him on ignore but actually found that laughing at his skewed way at looking at issues was something I missed so I took him off.
    Thanks from Michael J

  10. #30
    Veteran Member Panzareta's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by labrea View Post
    Overall, requiring San Francisco restaurants to provide their employees with health insurance doesn't seem to have hurt their business.
    I like my food servers to be healthy.
    Thanks from labrea

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