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Thread: Special Election in GA-6: Referendum on President Trump?

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    Veteran Member Southern Dad's Avatar
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    Special Election in GA-6: Referendum on President Trump?

    Tonight we get the results from the Special Election in Georgia's 6th District. The Democrat Party has put $8 million on John Ossoff. In order to win this seat, the Ossoff will have to take 50% to win the seat. A plurality will not do it. The Democrats have unified behind one candidate. The Republicans are split between several that have been infighting. If this goes to a runoff, which is likely, the Republicans will most likely win handily. The Democrats best chance is to get 50% in tonight's count.

    More than 80% of the money John Ossoff's campaign has is from outside of the district. The Democrats see this race as a very important race to win.

    If the polls are right, then Democrat Jon Ossoff will receive by far the most votes in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District, which is holding a special election to replace former U.S. Rep. Tom Price on Tuesday.1 But Ossoff will probably finish with less than 50 percent of the vote, which would trigger a runoff between him and the next-highest finisher — most likely the Republican Karen Handel, but possibly one of three other Republicans (Bob Gray, Dan Moody Judson Hill) who are closely bunched behind her in polls.

    Furthermore, the combined vote for all Republican candidates will probably exceed the combined vote for Ossoff and other Democrats, although it should be close. And the district has historically been Republican-leaning, although it was much less so in the 2016 election than it had been previously. All of this makes for a fairly confusing set of circumstances and a hard-to-forecast outcome.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...cial-election/
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    Veteran Member PACE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southern Dad View Post
    Tonight we get the results from the Special Election in Georgia's 6th District. The Democrat Party has put $8 million on John Ossoff. In order to win this seat, the Ossoff will have to take 50% to win the seat. A plurality will not do it. The Democrats have unified behind one candidate. The Republicans are split between several that have been infighting. If this goes to a runoff, which is likely, the Republicans will most likely win handily. The Democrats best chance is to get 50% in tonight's count.

    More than 80% of the money John Ossoff's campaign has is from outside of the district. The Democrats see this race as a very important race to win.


    Preparing yourself for a loss perhaps? how about all your toothless minions who are going around and stealing Osoff's signs? yeah, that's democracy, isn't it?

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    Veteran Member Southern Dad's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PACE View Post
    Preparing yourself for a loss perhaps? how about all your toothless minions who are going around and stealing Osoff's signs? yeah, that's democracy, isn't it?
    A loss? I believe this is going to a runoff election where the Republican, most likely Karen Handel will beat John Ossoff by double digits.

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    You'll see what I can do Singularity's Avatar
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    It's been argued here and elsewhere --- victory in a historically Republican district would be an extraordinary event that forecasts a wave election for the opposition in 2018. This district in particular was held by Newt Gingrich and Johnny Isakson, both of whom routinely won elections by dozens of points. Tom Price last year, same story. Any Republican who is palatable by a basic standard to the base will win this district, unless Democrats do literally everything right. That was the case in Wichita, without a doubt, and that will likely be the case here. Ossoff is a yuppie Don Quixote, but it's still a fight worth fighting. And if he gets a pretty solid plurality today, as forecast (specials are notoriously hard to poll, you just don't know who is going to show up in an odd year outside of November), it'll be an achievement.

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    Veteran Member DebateDrone's Avatar
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    No one find it interesting that so many "Republicans" are running? Seems the GOP is still ...if not even more fractured. So instead of D vs R, it is really R1, R2, R3, R4 vs D.
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    You'll see what I can do Singularity's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DebateDrone View Post
    No one find it interesting that so many "Republicans" are running? Seems the GOP is still ...if not even more fractured. So instead of D vs R, it is really R1, R2, R3, R4 vs D.
    A consequence of the weirdo runoff rule which I actually like, a lot --- plurality victories are kinda hollow in the best of times, especially if they only occurred because the opposition was too divided to stop them. I have to imagine that if a plurality victory WAS going to decide it today, according to the American standard, the GOP would've pulled a lot of favors and bashed some skulls to get some of these guys out of the race.

    As it is, Southern Dad is most likely correct ... Handel or one of her rivals will take second place, and enjoy a huge unification effort that Ossoff probably doesn't have enough potential voters living in the district to overcome. But it'll be close, and this is a good trial run for more competitive districts in 2018. And maybe, just maybe...
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southern Dad View Post
    A loss? I believe this is going to a runoff election where the Republican, most likely Karen Handel will beat John Ossoff by double digits.
    If it goes to a runoff in a state full of ignorant rednecks you lost.

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    Veteran Member John T Ford's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DebateDrone View Post
    No one find it interesting that so many "Republicans" are running? Seems the GOP is still ...if not even more fractured. So instead of D vs R, it is really R1, R2, R3, R4 vs D.
    Which should give the D a tremendous advantage.

    50% could avoid a run off.

    But, that will not happen.

    It will be R1 vs. D1 in a runoff with R1 winning by double digits.

    Democrats are desperate to get a win to point out that the tides for Trump are changing.

    But, back in reality, the referendum against the Democratic Party and the fake news MSM in this Country is still in full swing.

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    Veteran Member Southern Dad's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pragmatist View Post
    If it goes to a runoff in a state full of ignorant rednecks you lost.
    You may genuinely not know this but our state does have several Democrat representatives in the House. We also have only had two Republican governors since the Reconstruction. While it is easy to claim the state is full of ignorant rednecks in a post, you show your utter ignorance with that post. Look up GA-6. Only three Republicans have held that district. This district has cities like Atlanta, Marietta, Sandy Springs, and Smryna in it. Look up the demographics on any of those three and then come back talking about the ignorant rednecks. Cobb and Fulton Counties are about as far from ignorant redneck as you can get.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southern Dad View Post
    Tonight we get the results from the Special Election in Georgia's 6th District. The Democrat Party has put $8 million on John Ossoff. In order to win this seat, the Ossoff will have to take 50% to win the seat. A plurality will not do it. The Democrats have unified behind one candidate. The Republicans are split between several that have been infighting. If this goes to a runoff, which is likely, the Republicans will most likely win handily. The Democrats best chance is to get 50% in tonight's count.

    More than 80% of the money John Ossoff's campaign has is from outside of the district. The Democrats see this race as a very important race to win.
    so now we are to rely on polls again?

    Cuz, polls aren't looking too good for Trump's approvals right now.

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