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Thread: 6 months in, a record low for Trump, with troubles from Russia to health care (POLL)

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    Senior Member Eve1's Avatar
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    Veteran Member Canada - Geography game Champion, Geography Champion mtm1963's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eve1 View Post
    why don't you stop trolling the forum

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    Senior Member Eve1's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mtm1963 View Post
    why don't you stop trolling the forum

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    Veteran Member cpicturetaker12's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mtm1963 View Post
    ABC is playing the poll number game. hey look at our poll, its the one that matters.

    polls go up and down.
    Yep and his are HISTORICALLY LOW even the span of time these polls for 'newbie' presidents have been conducted. The great orange hope ain't delivering.

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    Veteran Member bajisima's Avatar
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    But here is the problem with all these types of polls. Sure people are angry and may not approve, but will these same voters vote democrat next time? Or will they just vote republican again? For example, I heard Joe Scarborough "Morning Joe" claim he no longer is a republican because of Trump. But in the next breath he announced he would gladly love to vote for John Kasich or Marco Rubio if they were to run. So while he is anti Trump he isn't going over to the democrats. He still will vote republican. Polls don't ever display this only elections do.
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    Quote Originally Posted by bajisima View Post
    But here is the problem with all these types of polls. Sure people are angry and may not approve, but will these same voters vote democrat next time? Or will they just vote republican again? For example, I heard Joe Scarborough "Morning Joe" claim he no longer is a republican because of Trump. But in the next breath he announced he would gladly love to vote for John Kasich or Marco Rubio if they were to run. So while he is anti Trump he isn't going over to the democrats. He still will vote republican. Polls don't ever display this only elections do.
    Opposition to Trump isn't necessarily opposition to Republicans generally--for sure. But look at history--the party in power nearly always loses seats in the first mid-term, and those usual losses are tied to the approval rating of the sitting president.

    Do you think Kasich or Rubio will be running in 2020, and do you think they could win the nomination? If not, the point you're making is kind of moot.

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    Veteran Member bajisima's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rasselas View Post
    Opposition to Trump isn't necessarily opposition to Republicans generally--for sure. But look at history--the party in power nearly always loses seats in the first mid-term, and those usual losses are tied to the approval rating of the sitting president.

    Do you think Kasich or Rubio will be running in 2020, and do you think they could win the nomination? If not, the point you're making is kind of moot.
    True. Midterms depend heavily on momentum and turnout. If one party is energized over another surely that makes the difference. But often in presidential years, it doesnt make a difference. Most people don't tend to swing too much on that one. There were at least 8 people I recall here alone that were "NeverTrumpers" but none of them voted for Clinton either. All went third party. So its possible that could happen again in 2020 if Trump were to run again. If the dems put up someone popular it could swing the necessary votes. I don't like to think we have turned the EC into this partisan turf that cant be undone. As to if Kasich or Rubio will run, its possible. Kasich has said he would like to run again. Few think Trump will run again anyway (either by choice, impeachment or resignation) so its possible we could be looking at a 16 person primary all over again or at the very least a Pence presidency with a new VP.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mtm1963 View Post
    its old news.

    trump's poll numbers have been like this for 2 months
    Not in this particular poll, which can be compared not just to other current polls but to itself, going back over 30 years.

    And you're wrong about 2 months. More like six. According to the RCP link you provided, Trump was at 50-50 in Inauguration Day and then tanked shortly after that. They rose a bit or fell a bit but he's been at more than -10 since April, and -5 since February.
    Last edited by Rasselas; 17th July 2017 at 08:20 AM.

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    Veteran Member bajisima's Avatar
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    I think this still looks plausible today. From April:

    "Despite Trump's low approval numbers, the poll showed him retaining support among his base, with 96% of people who said they voted for him saying they would do so again. The poll showed only 85% of those who voted for Hillary Clinton would do so again, with most of those who would not saying they would either go with a third-party candidate or not vote at all. That difference in remaining support for the two candidates would mean Trump would best Clinton 43 to 40% in a hypothetical rematch today."


    Poll: Trump, Democrats and GOP all unpopular - CNNPolitics.com

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    Quote Originally Posted by bajisima View Post
    I think this still looks plausible today. From April:

    "Despite Trump's low approval numbers, the poll showed him retaining support among his base, with 96% of people who said they voted for him saying they would do so again. The poll showed only 85% of those who voted for Hillary Clinton would do so again, with most of those who would not saying they would either go with a third-party candidate or not vote at all. That difference in remaining support for the two candidates would mean Trump would best Clinton 43 to 40% in a hypothetical rematch today."


    Poll: Trump, Democrats and GOP all unpopular - CNNPolitics.com
    Clinton is unlikely to be on the ballot again, so I'm not sure why reference to her matters. There will be no hypothetical rematch. That news suggests Clinton should give up her markers in the Dem party and leave her supporters to find another champion. It says nothing about 2018 or 2020.

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