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Thread: Thanks to Trump? Poll: Dem leads by 4 points in Pennsylvania House race

  1. #11
    Moderator HayJenn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eve1 View Post
    So? If the new people in the newly drawn district want someone more left than he is then he will get primaried as it should be. I don't quite understand why if the seat is coming up again in 2018 there is a special election now? Would not the Governor of that state just appoint someone until Nov 2018?
    I agree. But again, in terms of symbolism, it's highly important.

    Trump won the current district by 20 points I think?
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  2. #12
    Veteran Member bajisima's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eve1 View Post
    So? If the new people in the newly drawn district want someone more left than he is then he will get primaried as it should be. I don't quite understand why if the seat is coming up again in 2018 there is a special election now? Would not the Governor of that state just appoint someone until Nov 2018?
    Yea thats seems expensive in my opinion. Whoever wins tomorrow, will have to start campaigning again by summers as primaries come again in Sep for another November election. Lots of money poured in for just a couple months and then it starts again.

  3. #13
    Veteran Member bajisima's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by HayJenn View Post
    I agree. But again, in terms of symbolism, it's highly important.

    Trump won the current district by 20 points I think?
    Its one of those odd districts, dems outnumber republicans in registration by like 3 to 1. Its Murthas old seat that dems held forever but recently went red over trade and tariffs since Obama. Will be interesting to see.

  4. #14
    Retired Admin Macduff's Avatar
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    The poll in the OP is an outlier. RCP shows the race as a toss up. https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls...lamb-6327.html
    Which is still something in a district as red as this one. Living in the district, I have to say that Saccone isn't a great candidate. All things being equal, he should still get by with the district being what it is. But Lamb has a pretty solid ground game.

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    "Mr. Original". the watchman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Macduff View Post
    The poll in the OP is an outlier. RCP shows the race as a toss up. https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls...lamb-6327.html
    Which is still something in a district as red as this one. Living in the district, I have to say that Saccone isn't a great candidate. All things being equal, he should still get by with the district being what it is. But Lamb has a pretty solid ground game.
    isn't 4 point a toss up?

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    SPOCK! Puzzling Evidence's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Miller47 View Post
    If the weather is as bad as some predict, which candidate would be hurt the most?
    *Right-wingers all drive four-wheel-drive vehicles with nekid lady mudflaps.
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    Quote Originally Posted by the watchman View Post
    isn't 4 point a toss up?
    Sort of, I would say at that point, you are leaning one way just a tad.

  8. #18
    "Mr. Original". the watchman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Puzzling Evidence View Post
    Sort of, I would say at that point, you are leaning one way just a tad.
    that's in the margin of error in most polls.

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    Quote Originally Posted by the watchman View Post
    that's in the margin of error in most polls.
    Three points for most polls I thought?
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  10. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Puzzling Evidence View Post
    Three points for most polls I thought?
    3.7 in this case. In my book, still a toss up. That slim of a margin can change on a dime.

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