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Thread: Will we see 4% GDP?

  1. #1
    Veteran Member bajisima's Avatar
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    Will we see 4% GDP?

    CNBC seems to think so. They cant stop gushing.

    Armed with new-found proceeds from the tax bill, American consumers went shopping in May, driving retail sales and economic growth sharply higher.

    The economy in the second quarter is tracking close to 4 percent growth a level President Donald Trump raved about last December, just before the tax bill was approved. For now, his 4 percent forecast is close to coming true on a quarterly basis, after strong retail sales data pushed up tracking GDP growth for the second quarter to about double the first quarter's level. The economy grew by 2.2 percent in the first quarter.

    CNBC/Moody's Analytics Rapid GDP Update reported economists' estimates of tracking GDP show average growth at 3.8 percent, following Thursday's retail sales report. "On the heels of this data we now estimate real GDP is expanding at a 4.0% annual rate in Q2, up from our prior estimate of 2.75% and almost twice the 2.2% growth rate experienced in Q1," wrote JP Morgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli.

    "Net, net, consumers are back in a big way and provide the rocket fuel that is powering the stronger 3 percent growth we are forecasting this quarter," wrote Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank. "This is exactly what we should expect to see when the economy is giving everyone a job and workers have their pockets stuffed with massive tax cuts cash."

    Jobless claims also surprised economists Thursday morning, falling 4,000 to a near 44-year low of 218,000, signaling an economy at full employment.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/14/trum...-proceeds.html

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    Thanks Trump!
    Thanks from Crusher

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    Then there's poor ole Bill Maher, who openly wished for the economy to crash and for us to go into recession.

    Just because he hates Trump.

    Some of our members probably feel the same way. (I can probably think of a few...)

    They may not say it like Maher did in front of all his viewers on his show last week.

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    Moderator HayJenn's Avatar
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    Does not seem like this article takes into account that the Feds are expected to hike interest rates?


    The Federal Reserve is widely expected to again raise its key short-term interest rate today as U.S. economic growth remains strong and unemployment is at an 18-year low. The bottom line for borrowers: Everything from credit cards to auto loans to mortgages is about to become more expensive.

    The Fed's monetary policymakers are likely to add another quarter-point to the central bank's key interest rate, putting it at 1.75 percent to 2 percent, the highest since 2008, economists said. The Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank's rate-setting panel, is scheduled to issue its latest policy statement at 2 p.m. Eastern time. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will give a news conference 30 minutes later to explain the decision

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fed-tip...nterest-rates/

    Guess we will see when the actual report comes out.
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    Quote Originally Posted by HayJenn View Post
    Does not seem like this article takes into account that the Feds are expected to hike interest rates?


    The Federal Reserve is widely expected to again raise its key short-term interest rate today as U.S. economic growth remains strong and unemployment is at an 18-year low. The bottom line for borrowers: Everything from credit cards to auto loans to mortgages is about to become more expensive.

    The Fed's monetary policymakers are likely to add another quarter-point to the central bank's key interest rate, putting it at 1.75 percent to 2 percent, the highest since 2008, economists said. The Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank's rate-setting panel, is scheduled to issue its latest policy statement at 2 p.m. Eastern time. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will give a news conference 30 minutes later to explain the decision

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fed-tip...nterest-rates/

    Guess we will see when the actual report comes out.
    The rate of inflation 2.1% is higher than the interest rate.

  6. #6
    Veteran Member bajisima's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by HayJenn View Post
    Does not seem like this article takes into account that the Feds are expected to hike interest rates?


    The Federal Reserve is widely expected to again raise its key short-term interest rate today as U.S. economic growth remains strong and unemployment is at an 18-year low. The bottom line for borrowers: Everything from credit cards to auto loans to mortgages is about to become more expensive.

    The Fed's monetary policymakers are likely to add another quarter-point to the central bank's key interest rate, putting it at 1.75 percent to 2 percent, the highest since 2008, economists said. The Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank's rate-setting panel, is scheduled to issue its latest policy statement at 2 p.m. Eastern time. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will give a news conference 30 minutes later to explain the decision

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fed-tip...nterest-rates/

    Guess we will see when the actual report comes out.
    The fed has factored in 2 interest rate hikes this year with a potential third.
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    Quote Originally Posted by HayJenn View Post
    Does not seem like this article takes into account that the Feds are expected to hike interest rates?


    The Federal Reserve is widely expected to again raise its key short-term interest rate today as U.S. economic growth remains strong and unemployment is at an 18-year low. The bottom line for borrowers: Everything from credit cards to auto loans to mortgages is about to become more expensive.

    The Fed's monetary policymakers are likely to add another quarter-point to the central bank's key interest rate, putting it at 1.75 percent to 2 percent, the highest since 2008, economists said. The Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank's rate-setting panel, is scheduled to issue its latest policy statement at 2 p.m. Eastern time. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will give a news conference 30 minutes later to explain the decision

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fed-tip...nterest-rates/

    Guess we will see when the actual report comes out.
    They already did.

    You musta missed it.

    It's yet another sign of how great the economy is doing.

    Nice to have a pro business president...for a change.
    Thanks from Crusher

  8. #8
    Member Arkady's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bajisima View Post
    CNBC seems to think so. They cant stop gushing.

    Armed with new-found proceeds from the tax bill, American consumers went shopping in May, driving retail sales and economic growth sharply higher.

    The economy in the second quarter is tracking close to 4 percent growth a level President Donald Trump raved about last December, just before the tax bill was approved. For now, his 4 percent forecast is close to coming true on a quarterly basis, after strong retail sales data pushed up tracking GDP growth for the second quarter to about double the first quarter's level. The economy grew by 2.2 percent in the first quarter.

    CNBC/Moody's Analytics Rapid GDP Update reported economists' estimates of tracking GDP show average growth at 3.8 percent, following Thursday's retail sales report. "On the heels of this data we now estimate real GDP is expanding at a 4.0% annual rate in Q2, up from our prior estimate of 2.75% and almost twice the 2.2% growth rate experienced in Q1," wrote JP Morgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli.

    "Net, net, consumers are back in a big way and provide the rocket fuel that is powering the stronger 3 percent growth we are forecasting this quarter," wrote Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank. "This is exactly what we should expect to see when the economy is giving everyone a job and workers have their pockets stuffed with massive tax cuts cash."

    Jobless claims also surprised economists Thursday morning, falling 4,000 to a near 44-year low of 218,000, signaling an economy at full employment.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/14/trum...-proceeds.html
    Trump wasn't claiming 4% on a quarterly basis. That would be no big deal. We broke 4% several times on Obama's watch, if you just look at quarterly numbers. Hell, we even broke 5% as recently as 3rd quarter 2014 (5.2%). Trump promised it on an annual basis. Seeing as Q1 2018 kicked off with a modest 2.2%, 4% will be damned hard to get for the year, though we may beat the mediocre 2.3% from his first year, especially with the deficit spigot wide open the way it is.
    Thanks from BigLeRoy

  9. #9
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bajisima View Post
    CNBC seems to think so. They cant stop gushing.

    Armed with new-found proceeds from the tax bill, American consumers went shopping in May, driving retail sales — and economic growth — sharply higher.

    The economy in the second quarter is tracking close to 4 percent growth — a level President Donald Trump raved about last December, just before the tax bill was approved. For now, his 4 percent forecast is close to coming true on a quarterly basis, after strong retail sales data pushed up tracking GDP growth for the second quarter to about double the first quarter's level. The economy grew by 2.2 percent in the first quarter.

    CNBC/Moody's Analytics Rapid GDP Update reported economists' estimates of tracking GDP show average growth at 3.8 percent, following Thursday's retail sales report. "On the heels of this data we now estimate real GDP is expanding at a 4.0% annual rate in Q2, up from our prior estimate of 2.75% and almost twice the 2.2% growth rate experienced in Q1," wrote JP Morgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli.

    "Net, net, consumers are back in a big way and provide the rocket fuel that is powering the stronger 3 percent growth we are forecasting this quarter," wrote Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank. "This is exactly what we should expect to see when the economy is giving everyone a job and workers have their pockets stuffed with massive tax cuts cash."

    Jobless claims also surprised economists Thursday morning, falling 4,000 to a near 44-year low of 218,000, signaling an economy at full employment.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/14/trum...-proceeds.html
    I won't be surprised at all to see Real GDP Growth of 4% or even a bit higher for the 2nd Quarter of 2018. But this will be the high point for the Trump economy.

    Yes, Americans are spending like crazy. The necessary obverse of that is the saving rate is falling. Does no one worry about that, other than me?

    We are getting this strong growth right now because we are goosing the economy like crazy, at a time when it manifestly does not NEED goosing. A dangerous fiscal experiment, and that's putting it mildly.


    John Maynard Keynes: The boom, and not the slump, is the time for austerity.

    The economy IS booming. No question. So THIS is the time when we SHOULD be pulling in our horns, and trying to get our fiscal house in order, and REDUCING our mammoth budget deficit.

    We're doing the OPPOSITE.

    We're doing the opposite of what the economics textbooks tell us we OUGHT to be doing.

    You may think those textbooks are wrong.

    You would be wrong to think that.
    Thanks from bajisima, Arkady, labrea and 1 others

  10. #10
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Miller47 View Post
    They already did.

    You musta missed it.

    It's yet another sign of how great the economy is doing.

    Nice to have a pro business president...for a change.
    Pro-business? If you say so. Does not alter the fact that he is anti-market:

    Donald Trump, Enemy Of Free Markets
    Thanks from Arkady

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