Page 1 of 5 123 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 45

Thread: CA-36 special election historical preview - with electoral TABLE

  1. #1
    Banned Camp
    Joined
    Jun 2011
    Posts
    27,485
    Thanks
    5129

    From
    N/A

    CA-36 special election historical preview - with electoral TABLE

    For the special election to be held tomorrow in CA-36, it is always a good idea to know the political history of the district in question going into an election. I have put the electoral results from 1962-2010 in one table to see:

    CA-36 voting patterns since 1962:


    CA-36 DEM GOP OTH MARGIN SWING COMMENTS
    1962 38.2 61.8 --- R +23.6 --- Wilson
    1964 40.9 59.1 --- R +18.2 R -5.4 Wilson (inc)
    1966 27.1 72.9 --- R +45.8 R +27.6 Wilson (inc)
    1968 28.4 71.6 --- R +43.2 R -2.6 Wilson (inc)
    1970 24.2 71.5 4.3 R +47.3 R +4.1 Wilson (inc)
    1972 43.5 52.7 3.8 R +9.2 R -38.1 Ketchum
    1974 62.6 32.3 5.1 D +30.3 D +39.5 Brown
    1976 61.6 33.5 5.0 D +28.1 D -2.2 Brown (inc)
    1978 62.9 37.1 --- D +25.8 D -2.3 Brown (inc)
    1980 52.5 43.4 --- D +9.1 D -16.7 Brown (inc)
    1982 54.3 45.7 --- D +8.6 D -0.5 Brown (inc)
    1984 56.6 43.4 --- D +13.2 D +4.6 Brown (inc)
    1986 57.1 42.9 --- D +14.2 D +1.0 Brown (inc)
    1988 54.0 42.5 3.5 D +11.5 D -2.7 Brown (inc)
    1990 52.7 47.3 --- D +5.4 D -6.1 Brown (inc)
    1992 48.4 42.2 9.4 D +6.2 D +0.8 Harman
    1994 48.0 47.6 4.4 D +0.4 D -5.8 Harmon (inc)
    1996 52.5 44.0 3.5 D +8.5 D +8.1 Harmon (inc)
    1998 46.6 48.9 4.5 R +2.3 R +10.8 Kuykendall
    2000 48.4 46.6 5.0 D +1.8 D +4.1 Harmon
    2002 61.4 35.0 3.6 D +26.4 D +24.6 Harmon (inc)
    2004 62.0 33.5 4.5 D +28.5 D +2.1 Harmon (inc)
    2006 63.4 32.0 4.6 D +31.4 D +2.9 Harmon (inc)
    2008 68.6 31.4 --- D +37.2 D +5.8 Harmon (inc)
    2010 59.6 34.7 5.7 D +24.9 D -12.3 Harmon (inc)
    2011? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

    The winning percentages are bolded. The swing is the shift in margin as opposed to the previous cycle. All of the numbers in the table represent percentage values.

    For instance, Bob Wilson won his largest landslide as a Republican in 1970 (+47.3%) and then after redistricting, he moved on to the 40th district. His republican successor, Ketchum, won by a far less margin (although +9.1% is very close to a landslide margin), so the SWING in 1972 was R -38.1%.

    Just as impressive was the massive swing to the Democrats in 1974, with George W. Brown, Jr. as the candidate. He won a +30.3% margin blowout landslide and the SWING over 1972 was D +39.5. Between a GOP margin loss of -38.1 in 1972 and a DEM margin gain of +39.5 in 1974, this means that 77.6% of this electorate shifted over 4 years time. There can be no doubt that the Watergate scandal and the ensuing resignation of then-President Richard Nixon in August of 1974 - in close proximity to the election - played a role in such massive SWINGS throughout the country in the 1972 mid-terms. (The Democrats picked-up 49 house seats in 1974, which put them over a 2/3 majority in the House)

    On paper it looks enormous, this mega-swing over four years, but again, CD-36 was redistricted after 1970, so some of that can be accounted for because of the new political make-up of the electorate in a newly drawn CA-36 . Nonetheless, this still marks a monumental shift in the makeup of this CD.

    Brown served 9 terms. Jane Harmon came in 1992 and rode in somewhat on Bill Clintons coattails. It is also a similar story to 1972- the CD was redistricted again and Brown, the incumbent, moved over to the 42nd district. So, Jane Harmon had a narrow start here and a number of close elections in the 90s. Notice that she served 9 terms, just like Brown, but not consecutively: she ran instead for Governor in 1998 and in that year Republican Steven Kuykendall narrowly won over Janice Hahn, who is running in tomorrows election.

    Harmon came back and won election in 2000 easily and up till 2008, her landslides grew larger and larger and peaked with a massive blowout +37.2% margin in 2008. Though Harmon won with a lesser margin in 2010, a +24.9% blowout margin is still quite impressive in the year of a massive GOP wave nationwide.

    So, that is the history of the district in a nutshell. At least since 1962, CA-36 has never had a special election, so we have nothing to compare tomorrow to.

    Polling has showed it close between Janice Hahn and her Republican-Tea Party opponent, Craig Huey.

    The last poll shows Hahn up by +8. Actually, that looks about right. Go back and look at the table above and look at the comments column when you see a new name. Excepting Brown in 1974, everytime a new winner came on the scene, the margin was narrow: Ketchum 1972, Harmon 1992, Kuykendall 1998, (Harmon 2000).

    So, pundits may want to jump and clamour and ask why Hahn didn't win by +30 (if she wins), but the electoral history of this district over the last 50 years shows relatively narrow wins for first-timers. An 8 point win would be the norm in this case. The poll shows that she is winning 51-46 with voters who already voted. I suspect she will win with over +10. But special elections are dicey things: the turnout is always a crap-shoot and the weather always plays a role in these elections.

  2. #2
    Best Garage Ever! Disappointed not surprised's Avatar
    Joined
    Aug 2009
    Posts
    2,253
    Thanks
    0

    From
    SoCal
    Janice Hahn is a family member of an LA political dynasty.

    As far as I can tell she is a horrible person and hyper-partisan.

  3. #3
    Banned Camp
    Joined
    Jun 2011
    Posts
    27,485
    Thanks
    5129

    From
    N/A
    Quote Originally Posted by Disappointed not surprised View Post
    Janice Hahn is a family member of an LA political dynasty.

    As far as I can tell she is a horrible person and hyper-partisan.
    Since you brought no facts to back up this outlandish claim, I will just do as if this never happened...

  4. #4
    Best Garage Ever! Disappointed not surprised's Avatar
    Joined
    Aug 2009
    Posts
    2,253
    Thanks
    0

    From
    SoCal
    Quote Originally Posted by bonncaruso View Post
    Since you brought no facts to back up this outlandish claim, I will just do as if this never happened...
    I already know what I am talking about.

    If you don't I suggest Google and Wikipedia for a start.

  5. #5
    Banned Camp
    Joined
    Jun 2011
    Posts
    27,485
    Thanks
    5129

    From
    N/A
    The purpose of this thread was to analyse the political voting history of CA-36, which I have done.

    It is not to malign one candidate or another.

    Did I say one word about Doug Huey other than to mention his name? NO.

    Please keep it sanguine and sane. If you want to rip Hahn a new one, then please open your own thread and say you want to rip her a new one.

    Other than that I have very much enjoyed bumping into you on a number of occasions on this forum and I am sure we can get along very well.

    I hope you will respect my request.

    Thanks, BC
    Last edited by bonncaruso; 12th July 2011 at 01:37 AM.

  6. #6
    Best Garage Ever! Disappointed not surprised's Avatar
    Joined
    Aug 2009
    Posts
    2,253
    Thanks
    0

    From
    SoCal
    I don't know anything about the other guy running so I didn't mention him. I do know about Hahn. Sorry.

    For the record, I saw similar statistical breakdown of yours in another thread once and I found it both helpful and informative.

    I typically post whatever I want, at least until I get banned, but after such a polite and cordial request how can I do anything but acquiesce? At least I didn't call you a racist because you disagree with me. That happens more often then not here at PH regardless of topic or the intent of the person that starts the topic or even what is actually posted.

    Anyway, carry on!

  7. #7
    Banned Camp
    Joined
    Jun 2011
    Posts
    27,485
    Thanks
    5129

    From
    N/A
    Quote Originally Posted by Disappointed not surprised View Post
    I don't know anything about the other guy running so I didn't mention him. I do know about Hahn. Sorry.

    For the record, I saw similar statistical breakdown of yours in another thread once and I found it both helpful and informative.

    I typically post whatever I want, at least until I get banned, but after such a polite and cordial request how can I do anything but acquiesce? At least I didn't call you a racist because you disagree with me. That happens more often then not here at PH regardless of topic or the intent of the person that starts the topic or even what is actually posted.

    Anyway, carry on!
    Feel free to express yourself. If you are like my dog, then you just gotta stretch those legs, day and night. But, you are much smarter than my dog, which means you can discern when and when not to stretch them. Kind of like knowing when to say the right thing around a woman with enormous, äh, assets. Wrong word = no n**k*e.

    If you disagree with me, since I have so many voices in my head, first we have to decide which one you are disagreeing with....

    Yes, please feel free to aquiesce. I like that word.

  8. #8
    Best Garage Ever! Disappointed not surprised's Avatar
    Joined
    Aug 2009
    Posts
    2,253
    Thanks
    0

    From
    SoCal
    Quote Originally Posted by bonncaruso View Post
    Feel free to express yourself. If you are like my dog, then you just gotta stretch those legs, day and night. But, you are much smarter than my dog, which means you can discern when and when not to stretch them. Kind of like knowing when to say the right thing around a woman with enormous, äh, assets. Wrong word = no n**k*e.

    If you disagree with me, since I have so many voices in my head, first we have to decide which one you are disagreeing with....

    Yes, please feel free to aquiesce. I like that word.
    My dog is smarter than your your dog... and who doesn't love tittes?

    I promise I am done now.

  9. #9
    Banned Camp
    Joined
    Jun 2011
    Posts
    27,485
    Thanks
    5129

    From
    N/A
    Quote Originally Posted by disappointed not surprised View Post
    my dog is smarter than your your dog... And who doesn't love tittes?

    I promise i am done now.
    rofl.

  10. #10
    Banned Camp
    Joined
    Jun 2011
    Posts
    27,485
    Thanks
    5129

    From
    N/A
    Results from today's special election can be followed here at the CA SOS website.

    BTW, here is how CA-36 looks:



    And here is a handy-dandy Timeline of some events leading up to today:


    1992-2010: CA-36 elects Democrats in nearly every election at every level.
    Feb. 28 2011: Incumbent Democratic congresswoman Jane Harman resigns her seat to take a job at a think-tank, setting in motion a special election to fill her newly vacant position.
    May 17 2011: Primary election; Janice Hahn and Craig Huey emerge victorious amongst a large and contentious field of candidates.
    June, 2011: Outside PAC group unaffiliated with the Huey campaign releases offensive YouTube rap video parody attacking Hahn for her support of a program to give millions of taxpayer dollars to convicted violent gang members as part of purported “gang amelioration” efforts. The ad draws national attention but backfires and causes more damage to Huey’s campaign than it does to Hahn’s.
    Early July, 2011: The general campaign begins to turn nasty as Hahn, stunned by poll results that show her lead is razor-thin, releases several underhanded negative attack ads against Huey.
    July 12, 2011: General election day.
    Last edited by bonncaruso; 12th July 2011 at 01:28 AM. Reason: grammar corrections, God made me do it, my borg implants HATE bad grammar.

Page 1 of 5 123 ... LastLast

Tags for this Thread


Facebook Twitter RSS Feed