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Thread: Whither South Carolina?

  1. #1
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    Whither South Carolina?

    Complete cross-post from the Library:


    Enough polling has come in over the last three days to indicate quite clearly that Newt Gingrich will likely win the SC primary.

    But in a week as volatile as this last week was, a person would be foolish to make a 100% prediction in this race.

    You can see some, but not all, of the end polling results here at RCP.

    It is to be noted that since the SC primary came into existence in 1980, every Republican candidate who won in SC went on to win the nomination and since 1992, the same has held for the Democrats. More exact information about this is HERE in Wikipedia.

    From the GREEN PAPERS, here the poll-times and the delegate distribution:

    "As regards the South Carolina Republican Winner-Take-Most Presidential Primary:

    • Polling hours are 7:00a EST (1200 UTC) to 7:00p EST (0000 UTC).
    • 14 district delegates are allocated to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the state's 7 congressional districts: each congressional district is assigned 2 National Convention delegates and the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in that district receives that district's National Convention delegates.
    • 11 at-large delegates are allocated to the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in the primary statewide.
    South Carolina has been sanctioned- losing approximately half of its original delegate allocation- for holding its Primary too early re: Party rules..."
    More data:

    SC has 2,804,321 registered voters. It has 46 counties and 2,126 precincts.

    Here the exact numeric results from the 2008 SC primary. In 2008, Romney came in 4th place with 15.30% of the vote, behind John McCain, Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson. So, it is likely that even if Romney loses in SC, he will improve upon his results from 2008.

    In 2008, 445,677 votes were cast in the SC GOP primary.


    You can also follow the election returns for the GOP here at POLITICO, TPM or the South Carolina State Election Commission. All three of these sites are excellent.

    Politico is listing 6 counties to watch as the voting comes in.

    Nate Silver has done an outstanding analysis of the Romney "benchmarks" from his race there in 2008.


    .-----------------------------------------------------------------------------


    Facit: Many Republicans are unhappy that Newt Gingrich is about to win SC, for that can only mean one of two things:

    a.) Romney will eventually win the nomination, but it will take longer and he will have a bloody nose afterward.

    -or-

    b.) SC loses it's historical place as the "make or break" primary in the GOP world.

    Just one week ago, no one thought Gingrich was going to win SC; now it looks very much like he will.

    Are the pundits just as wrong about Florida, coming up next week? Is the Anti-Romney wall bigger and stronger than people thought? I can't really imagine that GOP voters are as pro-Gingrich as they are simply anti-Romney.

    My gut tells me that if Santorum pulls out of the race after this weekend, then all bets are off for Florida and this really could become a dogfight between Romney and Gingrich, with Paul collecting enough delegates in between to play "Kingmaker" at the convention.

    Suddenly, the entire "Romney is going to sew-up the nomination" meme has disappeared. Even if Romney does win FL in one week, the thing is still not sewed-up, because FL also lost half of it's delegates.

    And all you have to do is to surf the internet some to see who is HAPPY about a Gingrich win in SC, and who is not.

    And it is interesting to note that even Rasmussen Polling has put out a write-up by Geoffrey Skilley comparing 2012 to the very contentious 1976 GOP nomination race.
    Last edited by bonncaruso; 21st January 2012 at 02:27 PM.

  2. #2
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    The SC returns will be posted here

    ...as they come in.



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    Last edited by bonncaruso; 21st January 2012 at 04:29 PM.

  3. #3
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    The sC Preliminary results will be posted here...

    ... in comparison to 2008.

  4. #4
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    The SC Final Canvass results will be published here...

    ... in comparison to 2008.

    (This will probably take a couple of weeks and is a normal process in electioneering)

  5. #5
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    This will be my live-blogging thread from 6:30 pm - 8:30 pm.

    When complete, I will then transfer this to the library as well.

    6:20 EDT: In 2008, 445,677 votes were cast in the SC GOP primary. Both Donna Brazil and Alex Costellano at CNN incorrectly stated the number as 450,000 and 455,000, respectively.

    James Carville also incorrected referred to Obama's 2008 margin as "8 and a half points". That is incorrect. Obama won by +7.26%, not +8.50%

    Exit polling is showing that 64% of those who voted are evangelical Christians and 66% of those who voted are Tea Party members. Neither of these numbers is surprising - we were expecting this on the GOP side.

    ---------------------------------------------------

    6:45 PM: Jessica Yellin on CNN is stating that the Obama team thinks that the longer the GOP primary, the better for the Democrats. Duh! The more energy, time and money the Republicans must expend to cannabilize each other, the more the President can concentrate on fundraising and gathering material against the eventual GOP nominee.

    The CNN team is now discussing that GOP operatives are scared that with Newt at the top of the GOP ticket, the GOP will lose the House of Representatives.

    Gergen is noting that many South Carolinans have only have had two weeks of extensive exposure to Newt, but Washington insiders have known him for years, which is why the Washington insiders are leery of Newt.

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    6:55: CNN just did a crazy two minute advertisement for itself over what a gladiator type of thing the SC race is. Really, am I watching an election or WWF??

    7:00 PM: CNN cannot project a winner yet.

    EXIT POLL RESULTS:

    Gingrich 38
    Romney 29
    Santorum 17
    Paul 15

    If these exit poll results hold, then that will mean that PPP nailed the race in SC.

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    7:03: James Carville is saluting Newt Gingrich for coming back from the dead once again. Ari Fleisher salutes him as well. Castellanos: if Newt wins by double-digits, then calls will be out to Jindal and Jeb Bush talking about them entering the race.

    Tit-for-Tat:

    Brazil: DEMS have other rules. Castellanos: Only Rebublicans have rules. Brazil: No, the difference is, the DEMS follow their rules.

    The internals of the exit polling show Gingrich leading in all categories over Romney, except over the super rich.

    In SC, Southern Conservatives think that Newt is a stronger candidate against Obama, 48% to 39% over Romney.

    The CNN panel is discussing what could happen in Florida if this psychology, as they termed it, transfers over from South Carolina, i.e., if Florida Republicans also start thinking that Gingrich is the more competitive candidate against Obama.

    Gergen: Gingrich is an Alpha-Male, he went in and took it away from Romney.

    Borger: Why did Romney handle the tax thing the way he did?

    7:12 EDT, more about Exit Polls:

    Men:

    Gingrich 41
    Romney 27

    Women:

    Gingrich 36
    Romney 30

    MORMONISM

    "Are the candidates religous beliefs extremely important to you?"
    Gingrich 43
    Romney 9


    "Are the candidates religious beliefs somewhat important to you"?
    Gingrich 45
    Romney 29

    "Do the candidates religious beliefs mean nothing to you"?
    Romney 42
    Gingrich 29

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    7:18 Castellano goes there and invokes GOLDWATER. Wow.

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    7:31 CNN calls the race for Newt Gingrich

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    7:45 CNN panel is talking about the importance of the upcoming contests in FL and OH and implying that if Newt wins in FL, most likely the GOP upper-ups will try to draft yet another candidate before it is too late.

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------

    7:52 Santorum thinks this will be a long race and he thinks that is good, for it will hone the eventual GOP candidate. Jessica Yellin asks Santorum why he didn't pick-up more evangelical voters.

    Jessica says that the GOP upper-ups are freaking out over the possibility of a Newt nomination...

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    8:00 Romney is speaking. Crowd is cheering: "You should hear them when we win"

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    8:15 the CNN team characterizes Romney's concession / attack Obama speech as weak and lacking in fire in the belly.

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    8:18 Ron Paul states that he is staying in the race - and that he is just getting started.


    8:20 Ron Paul claims that it looks like he is going to get between 4-5 times more votes in SC than in 2008. Paul got 16,555 votes (3.62%) in 2008, he is currently at 14,090 votes (12.8%)


    His supporters, the most voiciferous that I have heard, are screaming "END THE FED, END THE FED!!!"

    8:29 Ron Paul is railing against the Patriot Act.


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    8:39 Carville nails it: Ron Paul can be the Kingmaker at the convention (just as I have been predicting)



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    8:40 Santorum speaks. Santorum congratulates Gingrich. He talks about his counter-book to Hilary Clinton's book "It takes a Village" with his "It takes a Family".

    Santorum is talking about "radical Jihadists".



    "We're goin' to Florida, Arizona, Colorado...." - if Newt was hoping for Santorum to drop out, I think those hopes just died.

    "WE have to be the party that speaks to everyone" (except gays and hispanics, of course)

    Santorum thanks a voter for getting a "muzzle loader" as a gift.
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    8:50 : looking at the county map of SC, Romney has only won 2 counties, and just barely, and not all the results are in. It is very possible that Gingrich will win every county in SC, which means that he will get ALL of SC's delegates.

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    8:58 Paul is indicating that he will essentially skip Florida and concentrate on the Caucus states (in the West, mostly). Says he wants to be frugal with his donor's money.


    9:00 Gergen asks Paul how many delegates he needs to get in order to have a hand in steering the convention in the Fall.


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    9:12 Carville says he has heard that Jeb Bush is not going to endorse yet.

    9:13 Castellano: "Romney is an incementalist" - Republicans want a big thinker.

    9:14 Carville: Conservatives don't like Romney because he is not one of them. He doesn't "smell" like one of them. Romney is not good on his feet. We are never gonna hear a senior strategist say "We are gonna let Mitt be Mitt."

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    9:30 Newt victory speech ----- zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.............


    Homage to Reagan.... praise of the other candidates.


    "We don't want to run a Republican campaign. We want to run an American campaign". Uhuh...


    "This is the most important election of our lifetime" -- "Just think how radical he (Obama) would be in a 2nd term"... uhuh...


    "If I do become your nominee, and I think with your help, I will become your nominee, then I will challenge President Obama to 7 three-hour debates. I have already conceded that he can use a teleprompter...." uhuh...


    "American Exceptionalism vs. the radicalism of Saul Alinsky". Uhuh...


    "Growing anti-religious bigotry...." uhuh...


    "Obama - the most effective food-stamp president in history"


    Newt is just making promises right and left. I think he is the Messiah.


    Uh-oh: American Energy Policy. So that no American President bows to a Saudi King. Uhuh...


    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Well, enough live blogging for now. Newt Gingrich will get creamed by the President, so let him bloviate, bloviate, bloviate.... every time he opens his mouth, another independent voters recoils...

    Last edited by bonncaruso; 21st January 2012 at 05:50 PM.

  6. #6
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    CNN declares Newt Gingrich the winner of SC

    at 7:31 pm.
    Last edited by bonncaruso; 21st January 2012 at 03:36 PM.

  7. #7
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    Deep thought: there will be not knock-out blow in this primary season. It is gonna be a dogfight all the way to the finish line.

    (Popcorn and Rootbeer tasting very good right now)

  8. #8
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    More election night results.



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    Last edited by bonncaruso; 21st January 2012 at 05:39 PM.

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    -------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Last edited by bonncaruso; 21st January 2012 at 06:06 PM.

  10. #10
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    IMPORTANT NOTE from the GREEN PAPERS:

    "We have it on good authority that- this evening- the vote from the SOUTH CAROLINA Republican Primary is not being displayed by Congressional District because the District boundaries are still not set due to court challenges over Reapportionment after the 2010 Census (a reminder: the presidential candidate with the most votes in each Congressional District in South Carolina is to be pledged 2 National Convention delegates [while the Statewide winner in South Carolina gets the pledges of 11 National Convention delegates in addition to any Congressional District delegates he might also win])

    This is being noted in order to remind interested persons that any report of delegates per candidate per Congressional District in South Carolina you might see in various sources right now may well be subject to future change; and this may also prove to also be an issue in States holding primaries and/or caucuses later on!"


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    Of course, if Gingrich won almost every county, and he did, then he will most likely get all the CD's as well.

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