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Thread: Virginia Gubernatorial: McAuliffe (D) vs. Cucinelli (R) vs. Sarvis (L), 3 weeks out.

  1. #21
    Senior Member Raoul_Duke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldGaffer View Post
    Oh, yeah, that is really going to derail his campaign, keep grasping for straws, your nutbag Winger candidate is going down, the first of many.
    It's not an issue of him "doing wrong" (i.e. participating knowingly in the fraud). It's an issue of he's the kind of guy who would invest in a vehicle to profit off of other people's deaths!

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cicero View Post
    Cucinelli is toast.
    The GOP has itself to blame.
    Not quite yet, but if the numbers hold over the next two weeks, then I would say: stick a fork in him, he's done.

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cicero View Post
    It's unfortunate that the election is shaking out this way, because Sarvis might have had a chance at a better showing...given that folks weren't overly enamored of either Cucinelli or McAuliffe. As it stands, right now, there is a very large percentage of the electorate (in Northern VA) that is irate over the shutdown. They might have, otherwise, stayed away from this election but are now very motivated to come out and spank the GOP. Most of them probably aren't going to vote libertarian, and those that do will probably take votes from Cucinelli at a greater rate than they will from McAuliffe.

    Right. and NOVA decides elections in that state. Plain and simple. The demographics tell me that Clinton will easily win this state in both 2016 and 2020 and by then, it will be considered a solid blue state.

  4. #24
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    We now have a third poll in a row showing McAuliffe moving beyond an average of +5 from all pollsters before last week, this time to +8 over Cucinelli. For Quinnipiac alone, this represents a jump from McAuliffe +3 in September to +8 now in October. That is a big jump.

    Virginia (VA) Poll - October 10, 2013 - 'Too Conservative' Tag Hurts C | Quinnipiac University Connecticut

    McAuliffe (D) 47%
    Cuccinelli (R) 39%
    Sarvis (L) 8%

    Margin: McAuliffe +8

    1,180 LV, Moe +/-2.9. Qpiac uses a larger polling base than either Rasmussen or PPP or, now, Harper. Qpiac had a CONSERVATIVE mathematical bias in the 2012 election of R +2.17 for all of it's end polling, but only R +0.66 for the three battlegrounds it polled. Qpiac nailed the results in Florida and was the only pollster to nail New York State, in spite of Hurricane Sandy :

    Bonncaruso's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2012: The moment of truth: how did the pollsters do?


    ---------------------------------------------------------------------

    The internals of the Qpiac poll show where Cuccinelli is hurting: McAuliffe is winning Democrats 95D-3R-2L (as expected), but Cuccinelli is only winning Republicans 83R-7D-7L. That's not good enough.

    McAuliffe is winning women voters 53-34, a whalloping +19 margin. Clinton will win women voters by at least +25 in this state, maybe +30. Female voters are the majority gender in VA, as through most of the Union.

    In the independent voters, it is almost a tie: McAuliffe 40 - Cucinelli 38.

    46% of Virginians find Cucinelli too conservative. But only 38% of voters (that would be your hard-core GOP voters right there) find McAuliffe to be too liberal. Indies tend to vote more for the middle, which is why this 46% is important. In order to be competitive, Cucinelli needs that number at 40% or below in a general election.


    Virginians oppose shutting down the government by a +47 margin: 71-24. That is bad news for the GOP.
    Last edited by bonncaruso; 13th October 2013 at 12:54 AM.

  5. #25
    Senior Member Raoul_Duke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bonncaruso View Post
    We now have a third poll in a row showing McAuliffe moving beyond an average of +5 from all pollsters before last week, this time to +8 over Cucinelli. For Quinnipiac alone, this represents a jump from McAuliffe +3 in September to +8 now in October. That is a big jump.

    Virginia (VA) Poll - October 10, 2013 - 'Too Conservative' Tag Hurts C | Quinnipiac University Connecticut

    McAuliffe (D) 47%
    Cuccinelli (R) 39%
    Sarvis (L) 8%

    Margin: McAuliffe +8

    1,180 LV, Moe +/-2.9. Qpiac uses a larger polling base than either Rasmussen or PPP or, now, Harper. Qpiac had a CONSERVATIVE mathematical bias in the 2012 election of R +2.17 for all of it's end polling, but only R +0.66 for the three battlegrounds it polled. Qpiac nailed the results in Florida and was the only pollster to nail New York State, in spite of Hurricane Sandy :

    Bonncaruso's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2012: The moment of truth: how did the pollsters do?


    ---------------------------------------------------------------------

    The internals of the Qpiac poll show where Cuccinelli is hurting: McAuliffe is winning Democrats 95D-3R-2L (as expected), but Cuccinelli is only winning Republicans 83R-7D-7L. That's not good enough.

    McAuliffe is winning women voters 53-34, a whalloping +19 margin. Clinton will win women voters by at least +25 in this state, maybe +30. Female voters are the majority gender in VA, as through most of the Union.

    In the independent voters, it is almost a tie: McAuliffe 40 - Cucinelli 38.

    46% of Virginians find Cucinelli too conservative. But only 38% of voters (that would be your hard-core GOP voters right there) find McAuliffe to be too liberal. Indies tend to vote more for the middle, which is why this 46% is important. In order to be competitive, Cucinelli needs that number at 40% or below in a general election.


    Virginians oppose shutting down the government by a +47 margin: 71-24. That is bad news for the GOP.
    LOL! He'll probably win. An awful lot of VA residents are big government socialists who could not care less that he's the kind of sleeze ball that is attracted to investments that profit off other people dying. Hey, at least that kind of an investment it doesn't pollute the environment, eh?

  6. #26
    Senior Member MaryAnne's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cicero View Post
    If that's what it takes to soothe your wounded feelings, then fell free to recast it as you please (in the theater of your mind.)
    The reality is that the national GOP has hurt republican standing in VA, and not just in Northern VA. They can see that Ted Cruz has almost certainly put this election out of reach for them.
    Cicero,I will not be voting in that race,but I have to tell you I have admired McAulliffe since he took over the DNC, paid off their debts, built a new headquarters and put them on the right path.

    Sure beats Steele and Preibus, who I think is the poorest excuse of a leader I have seen. Steele lived high on RNC money and ran them into debt. But it took many votes to get Preibus elected,and that was because Blackwell gave him his 4 votes.

  7. #27
    Senior Member MaryAnne's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raoul_Duke View Post
    LOL! He'll probably win. An awful lot of VA residents are big government socialists who could not care less that he's the kind of sleeze ball that is attracted to investments that profit off other people dying. Hey, at least that kind of an investment it doesn't pollute the environment, eh?
    Raoul, it is clear you know nothing about McAulliffe except a story you picked up on Fox. You really should study more. I have watched Terry for at least 10 years and he is a good businessman.
    Thanks from Friday13

  8. #28
    Pragmatic Revolutionary Suppiluliuma's Avatar
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    McAuliffe takes this one. It will hardly be a contest.
    Thanks from Cicero and Friday13

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Suppiluliuma View Post
    McAuliffe takes this one. It will hardly be a contest.


    Which has big implications for the 2016 GE. VA stays blue for Hillary. Easily.
    Thanks from Cicero

  10. #30
    Irrelevant relevancy Czernobog's Avatar
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    Well...Cuccinelli does have one last option open to him to help him win:

    The voter purge

    You know...the tried, and true Republican strategy: If you can't convince them to vote for you, just don't let `em vote!
    Thanks from Cicero

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