Results 1 to 5 of 5
Thanks Tree1Thanks
  • 1 Post By HayJenn

Thread: Trump's Forecast Far Rosier than CBO

  1. #1
    Moderator HayJenn's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2014
    Posts
    43,131
    Thanks
    33360

    From
    CA

    Trump's Forecast Far Rosier than CBO

    WASHINGTON—The Trump administration has drafted preliminary economic growth forecasts in its federal budget planning that rely on assumptions that are far rosier than projections made by independent agencies and most private forecasters, according to several people familiar with the discussions. The forecasts are being revised, these people said, following an internal debate. One concern is that pressing staff economists to produce aggressive forecasts might undercut the credibility of top appointees forced to later defend those numbers. The deliberations show the challenge the administration faces as it tries to reconcile the competing goals of cutting taxes, boosting military and infrastructure spending, preserving Medicare and Social Security programs and keeping budget deficits from soaring.

    The internal Trump projections are at odds with other assessments of the economy’s long-run growth prospects. The Congressional Budget Office, a nonpartisan agency that provides analysis to Congress, estimates the economy will grow 1.9% annually between 2021 and 2027. The Federal Reserve forecasts growth of 1.8% over the long run. While there are often disparities between the White House and other agencies on growth projections, they are rarely this large.

    During the campaign, Mr. Trump made apparent his low regard for economists. His administration has yet to name any of the three members to his Council of Economic Advisers, which oversees forecasting and other modeling.

    “It is awfully hard to get to 3%. I don’t know where a number like that would come from,” said Dale Jorgenson, a Harvard economics professor who specializes in such projections. Mr. Jorgenson’s most recent forecasts show an economy growing by 1.8% annually over the next decade. That’s in part because the labor force is aging, meaning there are fewer workers to produce goods and services, and because the educational attainment of the workforce has plateaued, meaning workforce skills aren’t advancing. Major policy changes such as a tax-code overhaul could boost growth to 2.4%, he said.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-t...6278?mg=id-wsj


    Great so he is telling his team to lie. Par for the course.

  2. #2
    Veteran Member TNVolunteer73's Avatar
    Joined
    Nov 2014
    Posts
    30,497
    Thanks
    7849

    From
    TN
    Isnt this the same CBO that said Obamacare would only cost 900 billion dollars in 10 years.. But ended up costing 2,100 Billion dollars after just 4 years. That CBO.

    1,200 billion dollars over budget only 4 years in.

  3. #3
    Moderator HayJenn's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2014
    Posts
    43,131
    Thanks
    33360

    From
    CA
    Quote Originally Posted by TNVolunteer73 View Post
    Isnt this the same CBO that said Obamacare would only cost 900 billion dollars in 10 years.. But ended up costing 2,100 Billion dollars after just 4 years. That CBO.

    1,200 billion dollars over budget only 4 years in.
    And per usual, I guess you have nothing to back that up?

    Are you ok with MM basically telling his staff to lie - AGAIN?
    Thanks from EnigmaO01

  4. #4
    Veteran Member TNVolunteer73's Avatar
    Joined
    Nov 2014
    Posts
    30,497
    Thanks
    7849

    From
    TN
    Quote Originally Posted by HayJenn View Post
    And per usual, I guess you have nothing to back that up?

    Are you ok with MM basically telling his staff to lie - AGAIN?
    No, Actually I can back it up,.

    CBO: Obamacare to cost $2 trillion over the next decade | Washington Examiner

    CBO: Obamacare to cost $2 trillion over the next decade

    When Obama pitched the healthcare law to Congress, he said it would cost "around $900 billion" over 10 years. But his statement was misleading because the way the law was designed, the major spending provisions didn't kick in until 2014. This meant that 10-year estimates at the time the law was passed in 2010 were artificially low, because they included four years (2010 through 2013) in which spending was negligible.


    And will still leave more people without insurance in 2025 than were uninsured in 2008 by 3,000,000


    ONCE AGAIN @HayJenn your NUH UH falls horribly short and makes you look very very very uninformed. OH wait, Nevermind.

  5. #5
    Senior Member
    Joined
    Apr 2015
    Posts
    8,053
    Thanks
    1363

    From
    Banned
    Quote Originally Posted by HayJenn View Post
    WASHINGTON—The Trump administration has drafted preliminary economic growth forecasts in its federal budget planning that rely on assumptions that are far rosier than projections made by independent agencies and most private forecasters, according to several people familiar with the discussions. The forecasts are being revised, these people said, following an internal debate. One concern is that pressing staff economists to produce aggressive forecasts might undercut the credibility of top appointees forced to later defend those numbers. The deliberations show the challenge the administration faces as it tries to reconcile the competing goals of cutting taxes, boosting military and infrastructure spending, preserving Medicare and Social Security programs and keeping budget deficits from soaring.

    The internal Trump projections are at odds with other assessments of the economy’s long-run growth prospects. The Congressional Budget Office, a nonpartisan agency that provides analysis to Congress, estimates the economy will grow 1.9% annually between 2021 and 2027. The Federal Reserve forecasts growth of 1.8% over the long run. While there are often disparities between the White House and other agencies on growth projections, they are rarely this large.

    During the campaign, Mr. Trump made apparent his low regard for economists. His administration has yet to name any of the three members to his Council of Economic Advisers, which oversees forecasting and other modeling.

    “It is awfully hard to get to 3%. I don’t know where a number like that would come from,” said Dale Jorgenson, a Harvard economics professor who specializes in such projections. Mr. Jorgenson’s most recent forecasts show an economy growing by 1.8% annually over the next decade. That’s in part because the labor force is aging, meaning there are fewer workers to produce goods and services, and because the educational attainment of the workforce has plateaued, meaning workforce skills aren’t advancing. Major policy changes such as a tax-code overhaul could boost growth to 2.4%, he said.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-t...6278?mg=id-wsj


    Great so he is telling his team to lie. Par for the course.
    The CBO overestimated growth in the Obamaconomy every single year. Now here in the Trumpconomy all of a sudden they get pessimistic?

    They missed 2016 GDP growth by over 30% just one year out. They were calling it at near 3% and it didn't even make it to 2%. Never underestimate the power of the Obamaconomy to disappoint.


Similar Threads

  1. Replies: 37
    Last Post: 18th August 2016, 08:08 PM
  2. Replies: 8
    Last Post: 5th August 2016, 02:18 PM
  3. Elections 2010 Forecast
    By Morgan in forum Political Discussion
    Replies: 16
    Last Post: 16th May 2010, 10:38 AM
  4. Forecast for 2010
    By Morgan in forum Political Discussion
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 6th May 2010, 11:15 AM

Tags for this Thread


Facebook Twitter RSS Feed