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Thread: The Economy is NOT Booming

  1. #11
    Veteran Member bajisima's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zephyr View Post
    That is my point. The general public will see, hear and feel the impact of the market correction and many will not understand what is happening. It is inevitable. No amount of infrastructure investment will change what is looming ahead.
    True and sometimes it makes it worse. People are more likely to overspend or go out on a limb to get credit or buy a car or house and then when it collapses, they are in bigger trouble than if they just hadn't done anything. Where I work, the management is ready to go out on a massive limb and get major loans for capital equipment. Going to have huge repercussions if it doesn't hold up.
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  2. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by bajisima View Post
    The stock market doesn't always tell the real truth. It only reflects those involved in it. Many of the blue collar Trump supporters aren't invested in it, so they think of it all as a folly for the rich. But if we can get an infrastructure bill passed it means we need tons of heavy machinery and manpower. That means those people will benefit. So they will think more of it if they can prosper out of it as well.
    The more global economies are manipulated, the less the connection between economy and stock market indices.

  3. #13
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
    Economic growth in the Obamaconomy for 2016 was 1.6%, a significant drop from 2015 and prior years. The IMF sees Donald J Trump changing that and predicting growth in the Trumpconomy.

    There are plenty of reasons for the anemic economic growth, Obamacare, cap and trade, Dodd-Frank, Hillary/Obama foreign policy decisions, race baiting, just to name a few.

    We were trending toward recession, maybe we can finally see recovery in the Trumpconomy.
    Almost everything you write here is simply wrong and incorrect. But we are all used to that from you by this point.
    Thanks from April15, OldGaffer and labrea

  4. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLeRoy View Post
    Almost everything you write here is simply wrong and incorrect. But we are all used to that from you by this point.
    Economic growth did slow to its lowest rate since 2011 in 2016, 1.6% was a big slowdown in the Obamaconomy from prior years, was were weak themselves.

    The U.S. economy expanded 1.9 percent between October and December, government data showed Friday morning, capping off a long period of tepid expansion under the Obama administration.

    For the full-year 2016, the economy grew 1.6 percent, the lowest reading on record since 2011 and down from an increase of 2.6 percent the prior year.
    The U.S. just had its worst year of economic growth since 2011


    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.fa6143f754ec



  5. #15
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
    Economic growth in the Obamaconomy for 2016 was 1.6%, a significant drop from 2015 and prior years. The IMF sees Donald J Trump changing that and predicting growth in the Trumpconomy.

    There are plenty of reasons for the anemic economic growth, Obamacare, cap and trade, Dodd-Frank, Hillary/Obama foreign policy decisions, race baiting, just to name a few.

    We were trending toward recession, maybe we can finally see recovery in the Trumpconomy.
    Here is the TRUTH, and we have been through most of this before:

    (1) Real GDP growth in the U.S. economy has been 'stuck' in a very narrow range of 1.6% to 2.6% from 2010 through 2016. It was 1.6% in 2016, but it was ALSO 1.6% in 2011, and was just 1.7% in 2013. Hence your claim that 1.6% is "a significant drop from....prior years" is simply FALSE. Why lie about this??

    (2) The IMF does NOT see any significant uptick in growth, either for the world economy OR for the U.S. economy. This was pointed out in the OP. And, by the way, neither does the Federal Reserve see any uptick in U.S. economic growth coming.

    (3) We were NOT 'trending toward recession' before the election. This is simply an ASSERTION by you, for which you have NEVER provided even an IOTA of statistical evidence. As I noted, with growth having been in a very narrow range of only one percentage point for the seven years from 2010 to 2016 inclusive, there is NO good statistical evidence of any downward trend leading to recession. The CONSENSUS economic forecast for the year 2017 BEFORE the election was for continued slow growth, and the odds of a recession beginning in 2017 were seen as VERY LOW, in the 10% range.

    Your endless pattern of simply lying about these issues is doing you NO credit, Libertine.
    Thanks from April15, Babba, OldGaffer and 1 others

  6. #16
    Veteran Member DebateDrone's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bajisima View Post
    Wall Street likes the idea of less regulation and tax cuts. So that is causing the upswing. Some also are banking on big projects like Caterpillar who are hiring and upping production for infrastructure projects. I have no doubt that all these roundtable discussions Trump is having with CEOs is telling them to hire and invest so he looks good. As a town developer, we are getting the message from the state to ramp up hiring and spending because of Trump. So the expectation is that there will be massive investment in infrastructure. If there isn't, there will massive trouble.

    Things are not that rosy at Cat.

    UAW orders thousands of Caterpillar workers to stay on the job as contract expires
    The United Auto Workers (UAW) ordered its members at Caterpillar, Inc. to continue working Tuesday night as its previous six-year contract with the heavy equipment manufacturer expired.
    In a statement released shortly before the midnight contract expiration, the UAW wrote, “The UAW/CAT Bargaining Committee continues to work hard at the bargaining table. We have agreed to continue working beyond the expiration of the contract in hopes of achieving an agreement in the best interest of all members.”


    Caterpillar has seen its revenue and profits plummet over the past several years as a result of global stagnation in the real economy. Having bet big on mining equipment with a series of multibillion dollar investments and acquisitions at the beginning of the decade, Caterpillar responded to the developing slump in commodity prices and subsequent downturn in machinery orders with a slash-and-burn strategy of factory closures and mass layoffs. The company has cut its global workforce by at least 16,000 since late 2015, a reduction of roughly 10 percent.
    UAW orders thousands of Caterpillar workers to stay on the job as contract expires - World Socialist Web Site

    Seems Cat is betting again for a bail-out.

  7. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLeRoy View Post
    Here is the TRUTH, and we have been through most of this before:

    (1) Real GDP growth in the U.S. economy has been 'stuck' in a very narrow range of 1.6% to 2.6% from 2010 through 2016. It was 1.6% in 2016, but it was ALSO 1.6% in 2011, and was just 1.7% in 2013. Hence your claim that 1.6% is "a significant drop from....prior years" is simply FALSE. Why lie about this??

    (2) The IMF does NOT see any significant uptick in growth, either for the world economy OR for the U.S. economy. This was pointed out in the OP. And, by the way, neither does the Federal Reserve see any uptick in U.S. economic growth coming.

    (3) We were NOT 'trending toward recession' before the election. This is simply an ASSERTION by you, for which you have NEVER provided even an IOTA of statistical evidence. As I noted, with growth having been in a very narrow range of only one percentage point for the seven years from 2010 to 2016 inclusive, there is NO good statistical evidence of any downward trend leading to recession. The CONSENSUS economic forecast for the year 2017 BEFORE the election was for continued slow growth, and the odds of a recession beginning in 2017 were seen as VERY LOW, in the 10% range.

    Your endless pattern of simply lying about these issues is doing you NO credit, Libertine.
    A 38% drop in economic growth from 2015 to 2016 isn't significant? The chart from the OP shows a downward trend.

    10% odds, that was higher than the odds of Trump winning.

  8. #18
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
    A 38% drop in economic growth from 2015 to 2016 isn't significant?
    No, not when the two years 2011 and 2013 had the SAME rate of economic growth. [1.7% is not a statistically significant difference from 1.6%.]

  9. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLeRoy View Post
    No, not when the two years 2011 and 2013 had the SAME rate of economic growth. [1.7% is not a statistically significant difference from 1.6%.]
    2.4% in 2014
    2.6% in 2015
    1.6% in 2016

    is a negative trend, just as the chart shows.

  10. #20
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
    2.4% in 2014
    2.6% in 2015
    1.6% in 2016

    is a negative trend, just as the chart shows.
    No, and this is actually becoming FUNNY at this point. From 2.4% in 2014 to 2.6% in 2015 is an INCREASE. There is NO statistical evidence of any 'negative TREND' in those THREE numbers.
    Thanks from labrea

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