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Thread: The Economy is NOT Booming

  1. #31
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
    So you did a regression analysis and found the slope of both the 3 year and 7 year lines to be negative? When you plot the data and fit the trendline the negative slope is very clear.

    The slope has to be zero, positive or negative. It is negative which means the years long trend is declining economic growth rates.

    It is fifth grade math, and no matter how many personal insults and f bombs you drop, economic growth rates were declining in the Obamaconomy.
    Wow, man. Just wow.

    No, I did no three-year regression. Any statistician would tell you there is little point in doing a linear regression with only THREE data points. Three data points will not reveal ANY trend. But if you WERE to do a three-year regression on those years from 2013 to 2015, are you trying to tell me there would be a NEGATIVE slope to the line??!???

    Here are those values again:

    2013: 1.7%
    2014: 2.4%
    2015: 2.6%

    A NEGATIVE slope? REALLY??

    The only regression I did was on the full seven years of data going back to 2010. There is NO negative trend there. I ALREADY pointed out to you that two of the three largest values, the highest growth years, were towards the END of that series, in 2014 (2.4% growth) and 2015 (2.6% growth).

    I asked you in the link I gave you back in post #26 to change the graph to the last TEN years, and you plainly and clearly did not bother to do that. Had you done so, you would IMMEDIATELY see that there is NO downward trend apparent over the last seven years. There just isn't. You are imagining things, in your head, and I'm beginning to wonder if you're BLIND. I wish I could just post the graph DIRECTLY, so that others reading this could SEE for themselves what a BULLSHIT artist you are.

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
    According to the your chart, the US economy was declining under Obama and is improving with Trump. See the inflection point at 2016?

    Looks to me like it slowed in 2015, and picked up, rising through 2016 (the year Hillary was projected to win).

  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLeRoy View Post
    Wow, man. Just wow.

    No, I did no three-year regression. Any statistician would tell you there is little point in doing a linear regression with only THREE data points. Three data points will not reveal ANY trend. But if you WERE to do a three-year regression on those years from 2013 to 2015, are you trying to tell me there would be a NEGATIVE slope to the line??!???

    Here are those values again:

    2013: 1.7%
    2014: 2.4%
    2015: 2.6%

    A NEGATIVE slope? REALLY??

    The only regression I did was on the full seven years of data going back to 2010. There is NO negative trend there. I ALREADY pointed out to you that two of the three largest values, the highest growth years, were towards the END of that series, in 2014 (2.4% growth) and 2015 (2.6% growth).

    I asked you in the link I gave you back in post #26 to change the graph to the last TEN years, and you plainly and clearly did not bother to do that. Had you done so, you would IMMEDIATELY see that there is NO downward trend apparent over the last seven years. There just isn't. You are imagining things, in your head, and I'm beginning to wonder if you're BLIND. I wish I could just post the graph DIRECTLY, so that others reading this could SEE for themselves what a BULLSHIT artist you are.
    Where did 2016 go?

    Where did 2012 go?

    Where did 2011 go?

    You are so dishonest.

    President Obama wasn't President 10 years ago.

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
    Economic growth in the Obamaconomy for 2016 was 1.6%, a significant drop from 2015 and prior years. The IMF sees Donald J Trump changing that and predicting growth in the Trumpconomy.

    There are plenty of reasons for the anemic economic growth, Obamacare, cap and trade, Dodd-Frank, Hillary/Obama foreign policy decisions, race baiting, just to name a few.

    We were trending toward recession, maybe we can finally see recovery in the Trumpconomy.
    A lot has to do with attitude, as @bajisima said. If thats the case, republicans have a share of the blame for constantly running around during the Obama administration yelling "the sky is falling, the sky is falling."

    Note the EU's performance during the same period - Obama did a pretty darn good job!
    Thanks from April15, BigLeRoy and bajisima

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
    So you if plotted economic growth for 2014, 2015 and 2016 and fitted a line would it not have a negative slope, as shown in the graph of the OP?
    The rate of growth can slow, but the economy is still growing, it isn't shrinking.

    If you grow 2 inches taller in one year, and only 1 inch the next, your rate of growth has slowed, but you haven't gotten shorter.

  6. #36
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by labrea View Post
    A lot has to do with attitude, as @bajisima said. If thats the case, republicans have a share of the blame for constantly running around during the Obama administration yelling "the sky is falling, the sky is falling."

    Note the EU's performance during the same period - Obama did a pretty darn good job!
    Oh, you can tell Libertine that the American economy has done better than the economy of almost EVERY other developed country in the world. But it won't 'penetrate' his thinking, not a whit.

  7. #37
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
    Where did 2016 go?

    Where did 2012 go?

    Where did 2011 go?

    You are so dishonest.

    President Obama wasn't President 10 years ago.
    Christ in a bucket, I KNOW he wasn't President 10 years ago. I am TELLING you that if you LOOK at the last ten years in that graph that I have provided for your EDUCATION, you would INSTANTLY see that there has been NO downward trend for the last SEVEN years. DUH! DUH! DUH!!

  8. #38
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by labrea View Post
    The rate of growth can slow, but the economy is still growing, it isn't shrinking.

    If you grow 2 inches taller in one year, and only 1 inch the next, your rate of growth has slowed, but you haven't gotten shorter.
    That is NOT what has happened, though. There has been NO slowdown in the rate of growth over the past seven years. I have TRIED and TRIED and TRIED and TRIED to educate Libertine on this point, but he is simply ineducable. We have been STUCK in a pattern of slow but steady growth, averaging around 2.1% per year, for the past seven years. NONE of the years in that time frame have departed more than HALF a percentage point from that average, and there IS NO DOWNWARD TREND.
    Thanks from labrea

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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLeRoy View Post
    That is NOT what has happened, though. There has been NO slowdown in the rate of growth over the past seven years. I have TRIED and TRIED and TRIED and TRIED to educate Libertine on this point, but he is simply ineducable. We have been STUCK in a pattern of slow but steady growth, averaging around 2.1% per year, for the past seven years. NONE of the years in that time frame have departed more than HALF a percentage point from that average, and there IS NO DOWNWARD TREND.
    I don't know what you mean that the Obamaconomy is doing better that almost everyone else, GDP growth in Germany, the UK, China and others in 2016 was stronger than the US.

    This data set produces an equation with a negative slope. You ran the regression analysis yourself, you know that it shows decreasing economic growth rates, yet you are still claiming not. After proving it to yourself, why do you repeat the lie that it is not declining?

    2010 2.50%
    2011 1.60%
    2012 2.80%
    2013 1.90%
    2014 2.40%
    2015 2.60%
    2016 1.60%

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...estic-spending


    https://www.theguardian.com/business...brexit-economy


    In 2016, the UK economy grew by 2%, slower than the previous two years, which showed growth of 2.2% and 3.1% respectively.

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