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Thread: The Economy is NOT Booming

  1. #1
    Cat-tastic Babba's Avatar
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    The Economy is NOT Booming

    While the economy is not booming it's not doing too badly in reality, contrary to what Trump keeps saying. (It's just like his continued insistence that crime and the murder rate are out of control when that's a complete lie.) Anyway, since the Great Recession the economy has been steadily hummed along. Granted, there are challenges. Automation has meant many fewer manufacturing jobs but manufacturing output has continued to rise over time. There has been growth in the service sector and unfortunately those jobs normally do not pay as well as manufacturing jobs.

    Anyway, the narrative that Trump and his people hope to sow is that Wall Street and business in general is booming because Trump was elected and there is no evidence of that.


    Neil Irwin writes about the fabulous Trump economy:

    The stock market reached yet another new high on Wednesday, the latest development to make a mockery of what savvy economic commentators thought they knew about the world.

    Consider how things looked one year ago. The world economy seemed hopelessly trapped in a cycle of low growth and inflation. Markets recoiled at the mere possibility that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates. Populist political insurgencies seemed to threaten yet more financial market chaos.

    Now, interest rates and inflation forecasts have risen substantially from last winterís lows; financial markets are shrugging off ó or even rallying at the possibility of ó imminent Fed rate increases; and it is all taking place during Donald J. Trumpís presidency.

    Why do we keep hearing this? Once again, here's the S&P 500 since the end of the Great Recession. I've even adjusted it for inflation just to be super fair:


    Finally, economic growth. You can talk about animal spirits all you want, but GDP growth in the US has been running steadily between 1 percent and 3 percent since 2010. Last quarter it was 1.9 percent, and there's no particular reason to think it's about to take a sustained jump. As for the rest of the world, the IMF doesn't seem especially optimistic:


    The Economy Is Not Booming | Mother Jones

    I'm really sick and tired of the lies Trump spews day in and day out but I'm especially bored with the people who are buying his bullshit. They're just the people who foisted that idiot on us.
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    Veteran Member bajisima's Avatar
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    Wall Street likes the idea of less regulation and tax cuts. So that is causing the upswing. Some also are banking on big projects like Caterpillar who are hiring and upping production for infrastructure projects. I have no doubt that all these roundtable discussions Trump is having with CEOs is telling them to hire and invest so he looks good. As a town developer, we are getting the message from the state to ramp up hiring and spending because of Trump. So the expectation is that there will be massive investment in infrastructure. If there isn't, there will massive trouble.
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    According to the your chart, the US economy was declining under Obama and is improving with Trump. See the inflection point at 2016?


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    Cat-tastic Babba's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bajisima View Post
    Wall Street likes the idea of less regulation and tax cuts. So that is causing the upswing. Some also are banking on big projects like Caterpillar who are hiring and upping production for infrastructure projects. I have no doubt that all these roundtable discussions Trump is having with CEOs is telling them to hire and invest so he looks good. As a town developer, we are getting the message from the state to ramp up hiring and spending because of Trump. So the expectation is that there will be massive investment in infrastructure. If there isn't, there will massive trouble.
    I honestly don't see the Republican Congress funding those things at the level some are expecting.
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    Veteran Member bajisima's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Babba View Post
    I honestly don't see the Republican Congress funding those things at the level some are expecting.
    I don't either, at least not all of them, which is why Trump has been courting some blue dog/moderate dems like Manchin, McCaskill, Heitlkamp etc. The ones that have helped confirm his cabinet.

    Most people also don't realize that a hefty chunk of whether an economy is booming or not is mental, if its believed it is, is kind of thing. Consumer confidence levels and that. The last two town meetings I was at is definitely reflecting a change in peoples outlooks, they are more interested in spending. Have been kind of surprised actually. Projects we have been begging for for years are now given a greenlight by the taxpayers because they think things look good. Like I said upthread, it damn well better be good because people are gambling a lot on it and if things go sour its going to be really bad.

    Consumer confidence hits 15-year high - MarketWatch
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    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    From the OP: Finally, economic growth. You can talk about animal spirits all you want, but GDP growth in the US has been running steadily between 1 percent and 3 percent since 2010. Last quarter it was 1.9 percent, and there's no particular reason to think it's about to take a sustained jump. As for the rest of the world, the IMF doesn't seem especially optimistic:

    Actually, the United States has not had a SINGLE year of 3%+ Real GDP growth since 2005; and we have not had a single year of 4%+ Real GDP Growth since 2000. The decline in the underlying growth rate is a LONG-standing pattern, not just recent, and is also WORLDWIDE. It is not fully understood, although we DO understand that there are MANY reasons for the sluggish growth, which has become 'the new normal'.
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    Junior Member Zephyr's Avatar
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    I think if we look back 12, 24, 48, 60 months Democrats would tell us the economy was okay and things would improve. I understand that now just over a month in, the perception of the economy from Democrats has taken a 180 degree turn. That is not unusual.

    I would add that as my friends on the right are excited about the current high levels of the stock market after the Tuesday evening speech by Mr Trump, they need to temper their zeal with the realization that a potentially strong market correction cycle will come within the next 12-18 months and it will probably stun some people in the general public. This is a natural and needed recalibration of an overinflated "overvalued" market situation. It is important to understand that this market correction would happen no matter who the President is. I advise people to prepare for it.
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    Veteran Member bajisima's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zephyr View Post
    I think if we look back 12, 24, 48, 60 months Democrats would tell us the economy was okay and things would improve. I understand that now just over a month in, the perception of the economy from Democrats has taken a 180 degree turn. That is not unusual.

    I would add that as my friends on the right are excited about the current high levels of the stock market after the Tuesday evening speech by Mr Trump, they need to temper their zeal with the realization that a potentially strong market correction cycle will come within the next 12-18 months and it will probably stun some people in the general public. This is a natural and needed recalibration of an overinflated "overvalued" market situation. It is important to understand that this market correction would happen no matter who the President is. I advise people to prepare for it.
    The stock market doesn't always tell the real truth. It only reflects those involved in it. Many of the blue collar Trump supporters aren't invested in it, so they think of it all as a folly for the rich. But if we can get an infrastructure bill passed it means we need tons of heavy machinery and manpower. That means those people will benefit. So they will think more of it if they can prosper out of it as well.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLeRoy View Post
    From the OP: Finally, economic growth. You can talk about animal spirits all you want, but GDP growth in the US has been running steadily between 1 percent and 3 percent since 2010. Last quarter it was 1.9 percent, and there's no particular reason to think it's about to take a sustained jump. As for the rest of the world, the IMF doesn't seem especially optimistic:

    Actually, the United States has not had a SINGLE year of 3%+ Real GDP growth since 2005; and we have not had a single year of 4%+ Real GDP Growth since 2000. The decline in the underlying growth rate is a LONG-standing pattern, not just recent, and is also WORLDWIDE. It is not fully understood, although we DO understand that there are MANY reasons for the sluggish growth, which has become 'the new normal'.
    Economic growth in the Obamaconomy for 2016 was 1.6%, a significant drop from 2015 and prior years. The IMF sees Donald J Trump changing that and predicting growth in the Trumpconomy.

    There are plenty of reasons for the anemic economic growth, Obamacare, cap and trade, Dodd-Frank, Hillary/Obama foreign policy decisions, race baiting, just to name a few.

    We were trending toward recession, maybe we can finally see recovery in the Trumpconomy.
    Last edited by Libertine; 2nd March 2017 at 07:24 AM.

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    Junior Member Zephyr's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bajisima View Post
    The stock market doesn't always tell the real truth. It only reflects those involved in it. Many of the blue collar Trump supporters aren't invested in it, so they think of it all as a folly for the rich. But if we can get an infrastructure bill passed it means we need tons of heavy machinery and manpower. That means those people will benefit. So they will think more of it if they can prosper out of it as well.
    That is my point. The general public will see, hear and feel the impact of the market correction and many will not understand what is happening. It is inevitable. No amount of infrastructure investment will change what is looming ahead.
    Thanks from bajisima

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