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And Trump's term has hardly begun. It's wrong to judge someone on the economic impacts of their presidency before they have a chance to enact any policy. Whatever happens, the GOP will own it.
Personally, I'd still short the Dow on a two-year contract. Anyone want to take that bet?
Last edited by Rasselas; 10th March 2017 at 09:09 AM.
Obama’s Final Jobs Report Marks 75 Consecutive Months of Growth
Over two million jobs were created in 2016, but economists believe there’s still room for improvement in 2017.
A worker drives a snow plow to clear the sidewalk in front of the White House in January of last year.
A worker drives a snow plow to clear the sidewalk in front of the White House in January of last year.Kevin Lamarque / Reuters
BOURREE LAM JAN 6, 2017 BUSINESS
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The final jobs report for 2016 shows that the U.S. economy has added just over 2 million jobs last year. The Labor Department reported on Friday morning that the U.S. economy added 156,000 jobs in December, while the unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4.7 percent. The numbers slightly missed expectations: Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal were expecting 183,000 jobs to be added.
Nevertheless, the December jobs report concludes a year of steady economic growth: For most of the year, the unemployment rate has been hovering just under 5 percent, the lowest levels since 2007. Although the pace of employment growth in 2016 slowed compared to 2014 and 2015—the height of the economic recovery—last year’s numbers put outgoing President Barack Obama ahead of George W. Bush (but behind Bill Clinton) when it comes to job creation.
In 2009, when Obama took office, the U.S. labor market was facing record-high unemployment—the highest since the early 1980s recession—and job losses due to the financial crisis. In January of 2009—the month Obama was inaugurated—the American economy lost 791,000 jobs. Now—eight years later—the U.S. has experienced 75 consecutive months of job growth.
“When President Obama took office we were losing 800,000 jobs a month. The job loss associated with the Great Recession was enormous, but a record long recovery has put people back to work including the long-term unemployed and those who left the labor force,” said Betsey Stevenson, a labor economist at the University of Michigan and former member of Obama’s Council of Economic Advisors, in an email. “Unemployment is low, wages are rising, and prime-age labor-force participation is recovering.”
Wages were an especially important indicator in 2016, since the improving labor market should, theoretically, increase pay for American workers. There’s been some improvement on that front: In December, average hourly earnings reached a high of $26.00, compared with $24.76 in January of this year. For the year, wage growth amounted to 2.9 percent—the strongest since the recession.
Harry Holzer, former chief economist of the U.S. Department of Labor and author of Where Are All The Good Jobs Going?, echoed Stevenson’s sentiments. “The job market has almost totally recovered from its devastating decline during the Great Recession … significant wage growth, which was lacking early in the recovery, has returned,” he said in an email.
Job creation has been particularly good in the private sector. “During the past 8 years, the labor market has steadily created jobs—adding 11 million jobs. Today, the labor market is tightening, and we are approaching near full-employment,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, the lead economist and head of ADP Research Institute (which puts together the private-sector jobs report). Yildirmaz says that according to ADP’s data, small and mid-sized companies in the U.S. created the most jobs since 2008.
Still, several sectors—such as energy and manufacturing—continue to struggle. Stevenson says that the trouble in these sectors will require innovative ways of approaching the changing job market. “The challenge for the future will be solving the mismatch between the types of jobs people used to have and the types of jobs the economy is currently creating,” she said.
When he takes office later this month, President-elect Donald Trump will be inheriting a strong economy. During the campaign, Trump often painted a dire portrait of the American economy despite statistics showing a strong labor market, an increase in American household incomes, and rising consumer confidence.
Critics of Obama’s job market performance often point to the drop in labor-force participation and the rise in underemployment as weak spots in the U.S. labor market, as proof that there’s still room for improvement. While labor-force participation has seen some declines in the past few years, it was steady throughout the year. In December, it hovered at 62.7 percent, which is near a 38-year low. The root cause of declining participation remains disputed, with demographics and discouraged workers cited as some of the possible explanations. In 2017, the labor-force participation number will likely remain a major focus.
“About half of the decline reflects Baby Boomers whose retirements we anticipated; it’s the other half, among prime-age workers, that we worry about most,” said Holzer. “It is possible that the labor-force participation rate among prime-age workers might improve just a bit more. But the improvements will be limited for two reasons: First, we are approaching the limit in labor supply of workers who are available and who have the skills needed for existing openings; and second, growth in demand will be limited as interest rates rise.”
Yildirmaz at ADP also points to the limits in labor supply: “The greatest challenge employers will face in 2017 will be finding skilled workers in the tightening labor market,” says Yildirmaz. A recent ADP study found that 80 percent of employers believe their top management challenges stem from the shortage of skilled workers.
Overall, 2016 has been a good year for the U.S. labor market. Looking forward to 2017, there’s evidence that the job market can continue to gain strength. Some economists expect that President-elect Trump’s promised fiscal stimulus will bring short-term job growth. But with the Federal Reserve likely raising interest rates to keep inflation in check, the impact of the stimulus on long-term growth might be hampered. In the recently released minutes of the latest Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting, members said that potential fiscal stimulus from the new administration would inform how the committee chooses to adjust interest rates in the future.
Is the Economy Overdue for a Recession?
The unemployment rate at 4.7 percent. Employers adding 235,000 workers a month. Consumer confidence at its highest level since 2001. The stock market rallying to new territory. Jobless claims flirting with a 44-year low. Wages finally rising, including for low-income workers. The expansion nearing its 100th month. Things are bound to fall apart soon.
This sentiment has become surprisingly common as the expansion has kept chugging along: President Trump has to face a recession in his first term, right? These things don’t last forever, right? “Trump’s turn,” USA Today warned. “Talk about a poisoned chalice,” quipped Bloomberg. “History shows there’s a 100 percent chance of a recession for Trump,” Yahoo declared.
Last edited by BigLeRoy; 10th March 2017 at 09:33 AM.
Both were Passed by a DEMOCRAT HOUSE, DEMOCRAT SENATE, AND SIGNED BY A DEMOCRAT PRESIDENT..
Remember that great Sucking sound that Perot warned us about...
Well Clinton did liked that sound, just ask the women he harrassed
Why, it FELL. And FELL, and FELL, and FELL, and FELL, and FELL, and FELL. For SEVEN years in a row after the passage of NAFTA, the unemployment rate FELL. And we had MORE manufacturing jobs in 2000 than we did in 1993, as per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The huge LOSSES in manufacturing jobs did not BEGIN until after 2001 and China's admission to the WTO.
Ross Perot is fucking STUPID, and Al Gore SAVAGED him in that debate they held on NAFTA. Only one other time in my life have I ever seen such a one-sided debate, and that was when Milton Friedman debated Reagan's drug czar William Bennett on the merits of legalization of drugs. In polls taken after the Perot/Gore debate on NAFTA, more than 80% of the Americans who watched it thought Al Gore had won the debate, hands down. There WAS no 'giant sucking sound of jobs going to Mexico'. Al Gore pointed out how ABSURD it was to expect that there would be: Why wasn't there, he asked, a giant sucking sound of jobs going from high-wage Connecticut to low-wage Mississippi?
You will NEVER answer that simple question. Because you don't know HOW. You HAVE no good answer for it.
There weren't over 2 million jobs created in 2016, only 1.6 million which was lower than 2015's almost 2 million, which was lower than 2014's almost 2.5 million. Can you see the decline there, just like the decline in economic growth over the same period and the decline in consumer confidence over the same period. Every economic indicator you look at was headed down during the last few years of the Obamaconomy.
Data extracted on: March 10, 2017 (2:14:35 PM)
Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey
Series Id: LNS12000000
Series title: (Seas) Employment Level
Labor force status: Employed
Type of data: Number in thousands
Age: 16 years and over
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2007 146028(1) 146057 146320 145586 145903 146063 145905 145682 146244 145946 146595 146273
2008 146378(1) 146156 146086 146132 145908 145737 145532 145203 145076 144802 144100 143369
2009 142152(1) 141640 140707 140656 140248 140009 139901 139492 138818 138432 138659 138013
2010 138438(1) 138581 138751 139297 139241 139141 139179 139438 139396 139119 139044 139301
2011 139250(1) 139394 139639 139586 139624 139384 139524 139942 140183 140368 140826 140902
2012 141584(1) 141858 142036 141899 142206 142391 142292 142291 143044 143431 143333 143330
2013 143225(1) 143315 143319 143603 143856 144006 144318 144304 144466 143577 144536 144741
2014 145055(1) 145102 145715 145673 145819 146222 146461 146501 146845 147426 147361 147521
2015 148061(1) 148108 148244 148522 148792 148742 148890 149092 148932 149255 149419 150030
2016 150533(1) 151043 151301 151028 151058 151090 151546 151655 151926 151902 152048 152111
I love how right wingers, after having their ass handed to them on a series of stats, then change the subject to a new set of stats so they can have their ass handed to them yet again. And never, ever, ever admitting they are totally wrong, no matter the evidence.