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Thread: The old solutions to economics....won't work anymore-

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    Veteran Member GordonGecko's Avatar
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    The old solutions to economics....won't work anymore-

    We face going into the 21st Century a MASSIVE economic shift....probably unseen since the start of the Industrial Revolution and move away from agrarianism.

    To a lesser extent, the loss of jobs like coal mining. Eventually the move away from fossil fuels will also hit oil and natural gas jobs as well. This is inevitable.

    Even if you are a Climate Change Denier?...green energy is the future, if for the simple fact that solar/wind is much cheaper than fossil fuels.



    But the major issue is manufacturing. First way it hit the United States was the rise of Asia....first Japan, then China. Their huge labor force, lack of environmental regulation, and ability to pay workers $1 a day wages...

    put American manufacturing from furniture to shampoo on the fast track to oblivion. While the Gephardt Left and Pat Buchanan Right tried to stop it, the Clinton Left and the GOP Big Business Right fostered it. Now? It's too late. Trump's phony promises of tariffs would destroy the economy by boosting inflation for consumer goods...for the poor, working, and middle class shopping at Target and Walmart.


    And close on its heels...will be SERVICE jobs. Lost to...automation. We're already seeing talk of burger joints that are almost fully automated. You can't cut Minimum Wage enough, conservatives, to stop McDonalds when it can operate a robot on 8-10 cents an hour of electricity and maybe $200 a YEAR in maintenance.

    So the old Reagan Conservative economic solutions won' work. Tax cuts for the wealthy ("jobs creators") and corporations...won't stop them from out-sourcing to Asia or replacing workers with automation.

    And talk of bringing back protectionism (either from the left or from the Trump Right)....won't fly either.


    Which means the Democratic Party better get serious about re-training and education promotion...or the GOP will abandon Reaganism and begin to do it.
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    Veteran Member bajisima's Avatar
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    Good post. I also think other things will have to come into play for older workers, like maybe even a guaranteed minimum wage. Otherwise what do we do with a worker in their late 50s or early 60s when the factory closes? We currently see that in coal country. The very least we can do is financially help them so maybe they can get their kids out of there to begin their lives elsewhere. Otherwise we could be looking at generational poverty in these areas considered "dead zones."
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    Veteran Member GordonGecko's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bajisima View Post
    Good post. I also think other things will have to come into play for older workers, like maybe even a guaranteed minimum wage. Otherwise what do we do with a worker in their late 50s or early 60s when the factory closes? We currently see that in coal country. The very least we can do is financially help them so maybe they can get their kids out of there to begin their lives elsewhere. Otherwise we could be looking at generational poverty in these areas considered "dead zones."
    Bajisima, we'll be looking at a "New Deal" level of progressivism that will be needed.

    Again, the old Reagan Conservatism won't cut it. You can't slash health, education, support for displaced workers......AND give the wealthy and corporations massive tax cuts to "create jobs"...

    if, again, it's STILL cheaper to go to automation or even off-shoring. Getting a tax cut, "OmniCorp" isn't going to open an electronics factory in Tennessee where it has to pay workers AT LEAST $10 an hour....if they can open one in Guangdong Province where they can pay workers $10 a WEEK.

    And "NO", before the ditto-heads jump in, we can't "cut regulations" enough to make up for the difference. Unless you want to make it PARITY with Asia....i.e. paying American workers Chinese-level wages....which are practically slave wages.....it's not going to bring back jobs.

    Nor is Trump (and Pat Buchanan) talk of tariffs or a trade war....that'll throw us into a depression, as middle and working class families face massive inflation at the Super-stores.



    So, all the old Reagan Conserrvative ideas do is create more and more under-class and erode the middle class even more.


    It's going to involve MASSIVE Governmental programs to ease or mitigate the economic upheaval.

    It's inevitable.


    If it doesn't happen under Trump and Republicans?....

    it WILL happen under Democrats and they'll get the credit for it with the American people, just as FDR and Democrats did for pulling us out of the Great Depression. (another debate, I'm sure Rightwingers will want to raise)
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  4. #4
    Veteran Member bajisima's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GordonGecko View Post
    Bajisima, we'll be looking at a "New Deal" level of progressivism that will be needed.

    Again, the old Reagan Conservatism won't cut it. You can't slash health, education, support for displaced workers......AND give the wealthy and corporations massive tax cuts to "create jobs"...

    if, again, it's STILL cheaper to go to automation or even off-shoring. Getting a tax cut, "OmniCorp" isn't going to open an electronics factory in Tennessee where it has to pay workers AT LEAST $10 an hour....if they can open one in Guangdong Province where they can pay workers $10 a WEEK.

    And "NO", before the ditto-heads jump in, we can't "cut regulations" enough to make up for the difference. Unless you want to make it PARITY with Asia....i.e. paying American workers Chinese-level wages....which are practically slave wages.....it's not going to bring back jobs.

    Nor is Trump (and Pat Buchanan) talk of tariffs or a trade war....that'll throw us into a depression, as middle and working class families face massive inflation at the Super-stores.



    So, all the old Reagan Conserrvative ideas do is create more and more under-class and erode the middle class even more.


    It's going to involve MASSIVE Governmental programs to ease or mitigate the economic upheaval.

    It's inevitable.


    If it doesn't happen under Trump and Republicans?....

    it WILL happen under Democrats and they'll get the credit for it with the American people, just as FDR and Democrats did for pulling us out of the Great Depression. (another debate, I'm sure Rightwingers will want to raise)
    I agree something has to happen and fairly soon. I noticed locally a lot of retail/service type jobs are automating quite a bit. Kiosks to order and pay and a general decline in retail due to online shopping. That hits directly at the low skilled labor force and in particular women who make up the bulk of these jobs. I know many places are putting in various types of vocational schools and classes which is helping get those skills into play but again they mostly are men. Few women are training to be plumbers or carpenters. That is a separate issue but one that is critical with the number of single moms out there.

    As for which party will attempt to do something, I don't know. Both currently are running to the right so its unlikely either will attempt something. Sure there are progressives out there who want these things, but faced with growing baby boomers, its going to be hard. They seem more focused on status quo and keeping taxes low. We see it in communities all over where budgets are turned down left and right due to voters not approving school and local budgets. That takes us back to training and vocational study. If towns cant pass these budgets they cant teach youth skills and we go round and round. One of those vicious cycles.

    I also think the parties are aligning somewhat. My spouse works in Boston in the science community and frankly, a good deal of his colleagues are pleased that the democrats aren't appealing to the blue collar workers anymore. They feel the party can move forward faster without them. So in some areas that "elitism" is definitely there. They prefer their party to be college educated and affluent. Whereas the GOP doesn't know what to do with the blue collar sector. They like their vote but cant really appeal to them when the metal hits the road. So its tricky as to who is going to grab this large and growing community of unskilled or low skilled workers and bring them in. The Joe Bidens certainly want them brought home to the democrats but if you look internally, the democrats are fast becoming more educated and settling in urban areas where many jobs are. The appeal of the rural farmer in Wisconsin is light years away. So I think while we talk about New Deals I do think it will be a long time before we see one. Both parties are so busy trying to undo Trump that they don't have a lot of time to focus on the needs of people currently.

  5. #5
    Veteran Member GordonGecko's Avatar
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    Both parties were fairly "conservative".....up to 1929.


    I hope it doesn't happen like it did then

    Today, it seems more "slow rot" than "lightning strike" (like the Crash and the Great Depression).....

    but a crises is coming, if not already upon us.

    And again, the old paradigm of the Right of "more tax cuts for the rich and corporations, more de-regulation, and gutting 'welfare' programs".....

    won't work.



    Part of TRUMP's appeal are those displaced workers......unfortunately, they bought Trump's PHONY promises of "bringing back manufacturing jobs" with trade wars, tariffs, etc......which either won't happen or will be massively counter-productive.


    So some party....Dems or Repubs....will have to come up with more viable solutions and the Democrats are in a better position ideologically to do that, not the GOP.
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    Veteran Member bajisima's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GordonGecko View Post
    Both parties were fairly "conservative".....up to 1929.


    I hope it doesn't happen like it did then

    Today, it seems more "slow rot" than "lightning strike" (like the Crash and the Great Depression).....

    but a crises is coming, if not already upon us.

    And again, the old paradigm of the Right of "more tax cuts for the rich and corporations, more de-regulation, and gutting 'welfare' programs".....

    won't work.



    Part of TRUMP's appeal are those displaced workers......unfortunately, they bought Trump's PHONY promises of "bringing back manufacturing jobs" with trade wars, tariffs, etc......which either won't happen or will be massively counter-productive.


    So some party....Dems or Repubs....will have to come up with more viable solutions and the Democrats are in a better position ideologically to do that, not the GOP.
    It definitely is a slow rot and even my kids acknowledge we have been spoiled for decades. We haven't had that big world war or that massive depression as past generations did. Those events vastly reshaped their thinking. Today the people at the forefront crying for change are the youth who study after study indicates they aren't going to live as good a life as their elders. Yet they are butt up against the boomers who don't get it. Many themselves "Reaganites" who fondly recall the 80s as time of great prosperity for themselves.

    I think if you recall, this is the type of rhetoric used by Susan Sarandon and Jill Stein during the election. The "burn it all down" mentality so we can get things done faster. They think if Trump is so awful its like putting that frog into boiling water so people will rapidly want UHC and free college. One of those things that shapes the future overnight. They see Trump as a net positive because progressives can "take over" in 2-4 years instead of waiting for another decade or two. Its kind of playing games. Lets just hope it doesn't backfire along the way.

  7. #7
    Veteran Member GordonGecko's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bajisima View Post
    They see Trump as a net positive because progressives can "take over" in 2-4 years instead of waiting for another decade or two. Its kind of playing games. Lets just hope it doesn't backfire along the way.

    It's not a bad theory though...again, Reagan Conservatism has seen its last days, even if you think it was a "success" in the 80s or even Clinton/Gingrich 90s.

    We simply cannot hold our economy together with more tax cuts for the wealthy, deregulation, and gutting health care/education/infrastructure/worker support.


    BTW, consider if there IS some "major shake-up" in 2018.....a Dem Senate, a thinning of the GOP majority in the House.....Trump's reaction, given he holds NO firm beliefs...

    might be to do a "Clinton triangulation" and agree to a Democatic economic agenda.


    That would be very interesting....because we've already seen so-called "principled conservatives" SELL OUT to Trump on other issues, especially the Cult of Personality types.

    What happens to the GOP if 1/3 or even 1/2 of the Party suddenly support a "FDR-style NEW New Deal".....promoted by Trump???

  8. #8
    Veteran Member bajisima's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GordonGecko View Post
    It's not a bad theory though...again, Reagan Conservatism has seen its last days, even if you think it was a "success" in the 80s or even Clinton/Gingrich 90s.

    We simply cannot hold our economy together with more tax cuts for the wealthy, deregulation, and gutting health care/education/infrastructure/worker support.


    BTW, consider if there IS some "major shake-up" in 2018.....a Dem Senate, a thinning of the GOP majority in the House.....Trump's reaction, given he holds NO firm beliefs...

    might be to do a "Clinton triangulation" and agree to a Democatic economic agenda.


    That would be very interesting....because we've already seen so-called "principled conservatives" SELL OUT to Trump on other issues, especially the Cult of Personality types.

    What happens to the GOP if 1/3 or even 1/2 of the Party suddenly support a "FDR-style NEW New Deal".....promoted by Trump???
    I think the fear by establishment GOPers has always been "Trump could break the party up." No secret there. We heard that during the primaries. Of course people assumed they meant due to his unprofessionalism and big mouth, but it went deeper. They knew he had been a democrat and had donated to dem politicians and entities like Planned Parenthood. They also knew the Kushner family are big dem donators so it made them uncomfortable. No one knew what he might do. I think its why Paul Ryan and Reince Preibus has attempted to be the bridge between Trump and the rest of the GOP. To keep an eye on what he thinks and plans to do. Remember Trump cares about himself first, so if he ends up with a democratic Congress he is very likely to work with them. Its why over the break when Trump talked about sitting down with some dems over healthcare, the GOP got nervous. He is a loose cannon and very vindictive.

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    If the population is growing and the number of jobs is declining, there is an obvious solution.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
    If the population is growing and the number of jobs is declining, there is an obvious solution.
    And yet there is work that desperately needs to be done.
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