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Thread: Doe Trump Affect The Economy?

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    Veteran Member Madeline's Avatar
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    Doe Trump Affect The Economy?



    *Snip*

    [I]n normal times the president has very little influence on macroeconomic developments — far less influence than the chair of the Federal Reserve.

    This only stops being true when the economy is so depressed that monetary policy loses traction, as was the case in 2009-10; at that point it mattered a lot that Obama was willing to engage in fiscal stimulus, and it also mattered a lot, unfortunately, that Republican opposition plus Obama’s own caution meant that the stimulus was much smaller than it should have been. By 2016, however, the aftershocks of the financial crisis had faded away to the point that the usual rules once again applied.

    Indeed, if we could find an economist who didn’t know that there was an election in 2016, and showed her the economic data for the past couple of years, she would have no clue that something drastic happened:



    For that matter, economic developments in the U.S. during Trump’s first year were remarkably similar to developments in other advanced countries. Europe, in particular, has at least for now emerged from the shadow of the euro crisis, and is steadily growing — if you take its lower population growth into account, it’s doing a bit better than the US:



    So we’re living in an era of political turmoil and economic calm. Can it last?

    My answer is that it probably can’t, because the return to normalcy is fragile. Sooner or later, something will go wrong, and we’re very poorly placed to respond when it does. But I can’t tell you what that something will be, or when it will happen.

    The key point is that while the major advanced economies are currently doing more or less OK, they’re doing so thanks to very low interest rates by historical standards. That’s not a critique of central bankers. All indications are that for whatever reason — probably low population growth and weak productivity performance — our economies need those low, low rates to achieve anything like full employment. And this in turn means that it would be a terrible, recession-creating mistake to “normalize” rates by raising them to historical levels.

    But given that rates are already so low when things are pretty good, it will be hard for central bankers to mount an effective response if and when something not so good happens. What if something goes wrong in China, or a second Iranian revolution disrupts oil supplies, or it turns out that tech stocks really are in a 1999ish bubble? Or what if Bitcoin actually starts to have some systemic importance before everyone realizes it’s nonsense?

    I’m not predicting any of these things, and when the next big shock comes it will probably come from some direction I haven’t thought of. But when it does come, we’ll need an effective, coherent response from officials beyond the world of central banking.

    So imagine such an event happening soon. How confident would you feel in the team of Donald Trump and Steve Mnuchin? How much leadership could a weakened Angela Merkel exert in a fragmented Europe?

    You might have thought that such concerns would weigh on markets even now. But for whatever reason, investors are currently in what-me-worry mode. And let’s hope that they’re right — that by the time stuff happens, we’ll actually have non-delusional people in charge.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/01/o...-carry-on.html

    Every major economic news outlet predicts that, in a crisis, Trump's economic policies would be hideously destructive to the U.S. and world economies.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/business...conomy/481743/

    https://www.usnews.com/opinion/econo...alth-care-plan

    Donald Trump Takes Credit for the Economy. How Much Should He Get? | Fortune

    https://www.thestreet.com/story/1333...s-economy.html

    https://www.thebalance.com/donald-tr...c-plan-3994106

    How Will Trump?s Policies Affect the U.S. Economy? - Knowledge@Wharton

    There are some who disagree, but they rely on discredited economic theories, most prominently, trickle-down economics. I'm not sure what an individual is meant to do about any of this, except that we need to stop pretending that Trump's bizarre behavior does not present economic risks to the U.S., and we need to step up the pressure on GOP Congressmen to get him impeached or removed.

    If there is a disruption in the world economy of any severity before that happens, Trump's flailing about is likely to plunge the U.S., and the world, into a serious recession.

    Or worse.

    Your thoughts?

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    Veteran Member aboutenough's Avatar
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    So far this idea “the sky is falling” has no merit to it. Jobs are up, companies are making profits, the stock market is roaring. I see no dark clouds in the horizon to worry about. The worry is perpetuated by a media that is politically motivated. A healthy economy is worry for Democrats trying to get elected, so they claim the sky is falling, even when it’s not

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    Dick with my Buzz...Try DebateDrone's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by aboutenough View Post
    So far this idea “the sky is falling” has no merit to it. Jobs are up, companies are making profits, the stock market is roaring. I see no dark clouds in the horizon to worry about. The worry is perpetuated by a media that is politically motivated. A healthy economy is worry for Democrats trying to get elected, so they claim the sky is falling, even when it’s not
    It was Donald Trump and the Republicans claiming the sky was falling 18 months ago.

    The trend has been going up since the crash of 2009.

    2017 was not all that different than 2016.

    Its Trump that has made all kinds of fantastical claims that have not come about.

    No major increases in manufacturing or companies relocating to the us

    No increases in coal consumption or increase in coal jobs.


    Trump claims increases in 'consumer confidence' as a victory. Consumer confidence is not a product or service.
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    Veteran Member Madeline's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by aboutenough View Post
    So far this idea “the sky is falling” has no merit to it. Jobs are up, companies are making profits, the stock market is roaring. I see no dark clouds in the horizon to worry about. The worry is perpetuated by a media that is politically motivated. A healthy economy is worry for Democrats trying to get elected, so they claim the sky is falling, even when it’s not
    Fair enough. Things ARE good atm, and economic theory is just that.

    Theory.

    I personally find it hard to ignore, but time will tell.

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    Quote Originally Posted by aboutenough View Post
    So far this idea “the sky is falling” has no merit to it. Jobs are up, companies are making profits, the stock market is roaring. I see no dark clouds in the horizon to worry about. The worry is perpetuated by a media that is politically motivated. A healthy economy is worry for Democrats trying to get elected, so they claim the sky is falling, even when it’s not
    Isnt that exactly what republicans did during the obama recovery?

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    Veteran Member Devil505's Avatar
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    Corporate America will only allow this country to prosper if we give them all the power and let them wage warfare on the middle class......as they are doing right now.
    After the next election they will start tearing down Social Security, Medicare and all the safety nets for the middle class.
    They want all the money....all the power...all the means of communication that any tyranny aims at acquiring.

    All of us but the 1% will be mere servants and warriors to the ruling class of white, Christian aristocracy that still calls itself the Republican party.
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    Quote Originally Posted by aboutenough View Post
    So far this idea “the sky is falling” has no merit to it. Jobs are up, companies are making profits, the stock market is roaring. I see no dark clouds in the horizon to worry about. The worry is perpetuated by a media that is politically motivated. A healthy economy is worry for Democrats trying to get elected, so they claim the sky is falling, even when it’s not
    Wages dont seem to reflect all this good news.

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  8. #8
    Veteran Member Devil505's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Madeline View Post
    Fair enough. Things ARE good atm, and economic theory is just that.

    Theory.

    I personally find it hard to ignore, but time will tell.
    It's a cookbook!

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    the "good" prag pragmatic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Devil505 View Post
    Corporate America will only allow this country to prosper if we give them all the power and let them wage warfare on the middle class......as they are doing right now.
    After the next election they will start tearing down Social Security, Medicare and all the safety nets for the middle class.
    They want all the money....all the power...all the means of communication that any tyranny aims at acquiring.

    All of us but the 1% will be mere servants and warriors to the ruling class of white, Christian aristocracy that still calls itself the Republican party.
    Presents us a fine question:

    Among those decadent "1% ers", which side of the political aisle do most of them fall? More vote Republican?? More vote Democrat?

    Certainly warrants some serious research!!!
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  10. #10
    Veteran Member aboutenough's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DebateDrone View Post
    It was Donald Trump and the Republicans claiming the sky was falling 18 months ago.

    The trend has been going up since the crash of 2009.

    2017 was not all that different than 2016.

    Its Trump that has made all kinds of fantastical claims that have not come about.

    No major increases in manufacturing or companies relocating to the us

    No increases in coal consumption or increase in coal jobs.


    Trump claims increases in 'consumer confidence' as a victory. Consumer confidence is not a product or service.
    So you think consumer confidence will change in one month and all manufacturing will instantly come back. I wish it would happen that fast, but there has been bonus increases and wage increases due to the tax cut. I am hoping America bring business back to this country rather then not. The Stock Market is a good sign that there is profits and hope for a prosperous future.

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