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Thread: US GDP Revised Down to Anemic 2.2% Q1 2018

  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by DebateDrone View Post
    According to who? I bet you 100$ it some Trump official.
    I'm ready to collect.

    Romer's Wrong About Value Of Stimulus - Business Insider


    Back in August 2009, the White House — after having a half year to view the economy and its $800 billion stimulus response — made an astoundingly optimistic forecast. Starting in 2011, with Obamanomics fully in gear and the recession over, growth would take off. GDP would rise 4.3%in 2011, followed by 4.3% growth in 2012 and 2013, too! And 2014? Another year of 4.0% growth. In its 2010 forecast, the White House said it was looking for 3.5% GDP growth in 2012, followed by 4.4% in 2013. In its 2011 forecast, the White House predicted 3.1% growth in 2011, 4.0% in 2012, and 4.5% in 2013.

  2. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by bajisima View Post
    They also claim to be preparing to raise interest rates possibly twice more. That could have a negative effect. CNBC tv pundits did a poll among the 5 economists that appear on the network and 4 of them said 3% GDP this year and 3.3 % unemployment rate by mid terms. Recession predicted by end of 2019 or early 2020.
    We're overdue for one, unfortunately.
    Thanks from bajisima

  3. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by DebateDrone View Post
    You shouldn't even be comparing Obama's Term 1 to Trump's if you were honest. Obama started out in a recession.

    Trump has continued Obama's Term 2 Q4 numbers.

    Once again Trump started out with a Million dollars and now has 1,125,000 in the bank.

    He's a genius
    GDP growth was a pitiful 1.6% in 2016, that's what Trump started with.

  4. #64
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
    I'm ready to collect.

    Romer's Wrong About Value Of Stimulus - Business Insider


    Back in August 2009, the White House — after having a half year to view the economy and its $800 billion stimulus response — made an astoundingly optimistic forecast. Starting in 2011, with Obamanomics fully in gear and the recession over, growth would take off. GDP would rise 4.3%in 2011, followed by 4.3% growth in 2012 and 2013, too! And 2014? Another year of 4.0% growth. In its 2010 forecast, the White House said it was looking for 3.5% GDP growth in 2012, followed by 4.4% in 2013. In its 2011 forecast, the White House predicted 3.1% growth in 2011, 4.0% in 2012, and 4.5% in 2013.
    I am calling BULLSHIT on this link of yours, on TWO grounds, Libertine. First, on this final paragraph. Whence does it come? There is supposedly a link buried within it. But, mysteriously, when you click on it, it says "Page Not Found". Hmmmm. I do NOT recall the Obama administration ever making such outlandishly optimistic forecasts, sorry. Either find another link to support this claim, or I flatly do not believe it.

    And now, the second ground. The author of your link PREPOSTEROUSLY says this:

    Partly because of fierce political opposition, and partly because of ineffective communication and imperfect design, the Recovery Act generated little such rebound in confidence.

    That is UTTER BULLSHIT. I have been through this with you MANY times. We saw a HUGE spurt in consumer confidence following the passage of ARRA in February 2009. That surge in consumer confidence was more than TWICE the percentage magnitude of the surge in consumer confidence that you yourself spent so much time and effort crowing about after the surprise election of Trump in November 2016.

    Also, a VERY large majority of professional economists, both in academia and in the private sector, agree that the stimulus program DID work, in the sense that unemployment would have gone MUCH higher than 10% without the stimulus package being passed. I will be more than happy to provide the documentary proof on that.

  5. #65
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
    GDP growth was a pitiful 1.6% in 2016, that's what Trump started with.
    And it's not much better now, with 2.2% growth in the 1st Quarter of 2018. Where's the 4% growth that Trump promised?

    The Failed Economic Promises Of Donald Trump

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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLeRoy View Post
    I am calling BULLSHIT on this link of yours, on TWO grounds, Libertine. First, on this final paragraph. Whence does it come? There is supposedly a link buried within it. But, mysteriously, when you click on it, it says "Page Not Found". Hmmmm. I do NOT recall the Obama administration ever making such outlandishly optimistic forecasts, sorry. Either find another link to support this claim, or I flatly do not believe it.

    And now, the second ground. The author of your link PREPOSTEROUSLY says this:

    Partly because of fierce political opposition, and partly because of ineffective communication and imperfect design, the Recovery Act generated little such rebound in confidence.

    That is UTTER BULLSHIT. I have been through this with you MANY times. We saw a HUGE spurt in consumer confidence following the passage of ARRA in February 2009. That surge in consumer confidence was more than TWICE the percentage magnitude of the surge in consumer confidence that you yourself spent so much time and effort crowing about after the surprise election of Trump in November 2016.

    Also, a VERY large majority of professional economists, both in academia and in the private sector, agree that the stimulus program DID work, in the sense that unemployment would have gone MUCH higher than 10% without the stimulus package being passed. I will be more than happy to provide the documentary proof on that.
    It would be easy for you to disprove, if that were possible.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLeRoy View Post
    And it's not much better now, with 2.2% growth in the 1st Quarter of 2018. Where's the 4% growth that Trump promised?

    The Failed Economic Promises Of Donald Trump
    You don't consider a 38% increase in the economic growth rate significant?

    It is a 100% increase over Obama's first quarter 2016 GDP number.

  8. #68
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
    It would be easy for you to disprove, if that were possible.
    I have been searching the Internet, and I can find NO evidence, whatsoever, that the Obama administration EVER forecast economic growth of 4% or above. I am calling BULLSHIT on your link, Libertine. YOU are the one making the claim. It is up to YOU to back it up.

    And HERE is the link on the consumer confidence numbers again. Do you want me to baby-walk you through the arithmetic calculations of the percentage changes one more time, as I had to do last time?

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT/

  9. #69
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
    You don't consider a 38% increase in the economic growth rate significant?

    It is a 100% increase over Obama's first quarter 2016 GDP number.
    I'm comparing the 2.2% real GDP Growth Rate in the 1st Quarter of 2018 with the Average Real GDP Quarterly Growth Rate of Obama's second term in office. Which was 2.0%. I don't see a HUGE difference there, no. And certainly 2.2% is nowhere even remotely close to the 4% (or even better) that Donald Trump was consistently promising during his campaign.

    And, by the way, do you still think Donald Trump was being accurate when he was telling America in the summer of 2016 that the 'real' unemployment rate in America was 40%, Libertine? Or was that just campaign hogwarsh and propaganda, designed to 'sucker in' gullible voters?

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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLeRoy View Post
    I have been searching the Internet, and I can find NO evidence, whatsoever, that the Obama administration EVER forecast economic growth of 4% or above. I am calling BULLSHIT on your link, Libertine. YOU are the one making the claim. It is up to YOU to back it up.

    And HERE is the link on the consumer confidence numbers again. Do you want me to baby-walk you through the arithmetic calculations of the percentage changes one more time, as I had to do last time?

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT/
    Your graph shows that people had more confidence in the Bushconomy and Trumpconomy than the Obamaconomy.

    So there is nothing about Obama's budgets in 2009, 2010, and 2011 and their assumptions on the entire world wide web?

    Did you check the White House archives?
    Last edited by Libertine; 7th June 2018 at 03:58 PM.

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