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Thread: So This Is What A Trade War Does To The Stock Market

  1. #11
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
    The S&P 500 is down 0.60%, is that a big deal?

    It is up 25% since Trump was elected.
    The Dow was down more than 400 points, or 1.6%, in early trading, and is on its way to a 6th straight day of losses, attributed to fears over trade wars. And it is down more than 5.5% from its late January (2018) high. But most of the damage seen so far has been in overseas stock markets, true. It has been a global selloff, though.

    There are no safe assets in a global trade war. That is what makes it especially troublesome for a worried investor.
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  2. #12
    Senior Member BoiseBo's Avatar
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    Yep, this is why I put pulled out of all my stock investments first week of February when Trump started yammering about his stupid trade war and how "easy it would be to win".

    Got out of everything at 26,600 now down 2,000 points and betting on another thousand in next few weeks.

    -310 just on the day.

    Market Summary > Dow Jones Industrial Average
    INDEXDJX: .DJI
    24,676.72 −310.75 (1.24%)
    Jun 19, 11:34 AM EDT
    Last edited by BoiseBo; 19th June 2018 at 08:03 AM.
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  3. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by boisebo View Post
    yep, this is why i put pulled out of all my stock investments first week of february when trump started yammering about his stupid trade war.

    Got out of everything at 26,600 now down 2,000 points and betting on another thousand in next few weeks.

    -310 just on the day.

    Market summary > dow jones industrial average
    indexdjx: .dji
    24,676.72 −310.75 (1.24%)
    jun 19, 11:34 am edt
    dji -1.03%
    s&p -0.5%

  4. #14
    Veteran Member Dr.Knuckles's Avatar
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    Neither China, EU, Japan, nor Canada have enacted their retaliatory tariffs yet. All are coming by the beginning of July. They haven’t started yet. I think Mexico’s kicked in very recently.

    It’s possible that Trump will cancel all the US tariffs right before any counter tariffs are applied. Then he would have decimated foreign businesses then stopped right before the consequences kick in. Which I admit would be clever. In a “would never be forgotten and vengeance would be served personal and cold” kind of way.
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  5. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by carpe diem View Post
    Remember when you all said he had zero chance to beat Hillary?
    Reduced to diversions and attempted derailment from the idiot you follow?
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  6. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLeRoy View Post
    Now that we are in a GENUINE trade war, as opposed to merely threats of a trade war, how is that affecting the stock market? Well, look and see:

    Global stocks sink as Trump ups the stakes in China trade fight
    So far, overall the Trump stock market has been mediocre, but not terrible. As of this writing, the annualized rate of change for the S&P 500 has been +9.4%, compared to 13.8% under Obama, and an annualized total return of +17.4% during the Clinton era, 14.4% under GHW Bush, 14.4% under Reagan, 11.2% under Carter, 17.0% under Ford, 10.2% under Johnson, 12.4% under Kennedy, 14.9% under Eisenhower. Things aren't as bad as in the Nixon and GW Bush eras, but the fascinating thing is that things haven't been better in light of the artificial stimulus from lower corporate taxes, which should goose the value of stocks.
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  7. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
    The S&P 500 is down 0.60%, is that a big deal?

    It is up 25% since Trump was elected.
    I find right-wing rhetoric to be almost charming in the shamelessness of its dishonesty. For example, the S&P 500 is actually only up 21.3% since Trump became president (a mediocre 9.4% annualized increase), but in order to make it sound better, conservatives tend to try to throw the last few months of the Obama presidency into the Trump column, by instead framing things in terms of how things have gone since Trump was elected.

    Needless to say, if the stock market had tanked between election day and inauguration day, there wouldn't be a single conservative quoting the numbers in that way. Their principles will change from one case to the next, to game the numbers. Sometimes they'll take the position that effects of a presidency actually predate the presidency -- as with Trump getting credit for late-2016 growth. Other times they'll take the position that the effects of a presidency don't take hold until much later -- as with Carter being blamed for the extremely severe recession that hit in Reagan's second year in office (a recession with unemployment rates that peaked even higher than they did in the financial crisis). And sometimes they'll even argue for a much longer delay cycle, such that, for example, Bill Clinton is to blame for a financial crisis that hit in Bush's seventh year in office.
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  8. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dr.Knuckles View Post
    Neither China, EU, Japan, nor Canada have enacted their retaliatory tariffs yet. All are coming by the beginning of July. They haven’t started yet. I think Mexico’s kicked in very recently.

    It’s possible that Trump will cancel all the US tariffs right before any counter tariffs are applied. Then he would have decimated foreign businesses then stopped right before the consequences kick in. Which I admit would be clever. In a “would never be forgotten and vengeance would be served personal and cold” kind of way.
    That would be about the farthest thing from clever I can imagine. It would mean he pissed away huge amounts of accumulated goodwill for America, making it harder for us to get cooperation from other leading nations on matters requiring their help, for nothing. That bad-will will also mean a stigma for American products abroad.... and a hesitancy for foreign firms to integrate US components into their supply chain, for fear that next time Trump isn't bluffing. So, you get the disadvantage of a trade war without the benefits of actual protectionism. Meanwhile, it will have meant mal-investment here in the US: Americans making investments that only make sense if the industries are going to be protected from foreign competition by way of tariffs... money that will be stranded if that protection doesn't show up. How'd you feel to be sitting on a pile of debt you took on to expand a steel plant that won't be able to pay a sufficient return to cover that debt if cheap foreign steel keeps coming in?

    We'd be suffering for that misstep from day one, with no benefits, and that's before the "cold vengeance" showed up.
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  9. #19
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    More "Chicken Little" investors preaching gloom and doom about the markets.

    Hilarious as one member loves to say.

    One down day, and it means the end of the world as we know it, as REM used to say.

    Go ahead you "Chicken Little" investors, set your hair on fire and run back and forth screaming that the end is near.

    Meanwhile...BUYING OPPORTUNITY!
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  10. #20
    Veteran Member bajisima's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dr.Knuckles View Post
    Neither China, EU, Japan, nor Canada have enacted their retaliatory tariffs yet. All are coming by the beginning of July. They haven’t started yet. I think Mexico’s kicked in very recently.

    It’s possible that Trump will cancel all the US tariffs right before any counter tariffs are applied. Then he would have decimated foreign businesses then stopped right before the consequences kick in. Which I admit would be clever. In a “would never be forgotten and vengeance would be served personal and cold” kind of way.
    He had been known for doing stuff like that. In his book "Art of the Deal" he did that all the time. Then it became nothing when the deadline hit.
    Thanks from labrea

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