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Thread: So This Is What A Trade War Does To The Stock Market

  1. #21
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    China has the most to loose.
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  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arkady View Post
    I find right-wing rhetoric to be almost charming in the shamelessness of its dishonesty. For example, the S&P 500 is actually only up 21.3% since Trump became president (a mediocre 9.4% annualized increase), but in order to make it sound better, conservatives tend to try to throw the last few months of the Obama presidency into the Trump column, by instead framing things in terms of how things have gone since Trump was elected.

    Needless to say, if the stock market had tanked between election day and inauguration day, there wouldn't be a single conservative quoting the numbers in that way. Their principles will change from one case to the next, to game the numbers. Sometimes they'll take the position that effects of a presidency actually predate the presidency -- as with Trump getting credit for late-2016 growth. Other times they'll take the position that the effects of a presidency don't take hold until much later -- as with Carter being blamed for the extremely severe recession that hit in Reagan's second year in office (a recession with unemployment rates that peaked even higher than they did in the financial crisis). And sometimes they'll even argue for a much longer delay cycle, such that, for example, Bill Clinton is to blame for a financial crisis that hit in Bush's seventh year in office.
    Like the way you only want to discuss numbers from Obama's last term when looking at economic growth rates, but always use Obama's full term when discussing stock market growth?

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
    Like the way you only want to discuss numbers from Obama's last term when looking at economic growth rates, but always use Obama's full term when discussing stock market growth?
    But, but, but, but, but, Obama.....
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  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by bajisima View Post
    He had been known for doing stuff like that. In his book "Art of the Deal" he did that all the time. Then it became nothing when the deadline hit.
    That may help to explain why he was such a markedly unsuccessful businessman. Remember, his inherited fortune expanded at about half the rate you'd have gotten in the same period with a generic passive investment like an S&P 500 index fund. Although he could get away with screwing the little guy time and again, because there's a never-ending supply of new suckers (see, for example, the rubes who handed him money for his phony university), the big players learn their lesson after a few cynical stunts like that, and stop doing business with such scumbags. Gradually Trump whittled down his potential market just to the mom-and-pop nincompoops, on the one hand, and Russian gangsters and Kremlin agents, on the other hand, and that makes it damned hard to get a decent return on investment.
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  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arkady View Post
    That may help to explain why he was such a markedly unsuccessful businessman. Remember, his inherited fortune expanded at about half the rate you'd have gotten in the same period with a generic passive investment like an S&P 500 index fund. Although he could get away with screwing the little guy time and again, because there's a never-ending supply of new suckers (see, for example, the rubes who handed him money for his phony university), the big players learn their lesson after a few cynical stunts like that, and stop doing business with such scumbags. Gradually Trump whittled down his potential market just to the mom-and-pop nincompoops, on the one hand, and Russian gangsters and Kremlin agents, on the other hand, and that makes it damned hard to get a decent return on investment.
    I wonder if a lot of it was a gimmick? He doesnt want anybody seeing his tax returns so its entirely possible he intended to lose money for tax purposes. Tax write offs and such. Plus if he was doing hanky panky with the Russians, thats where his real money went. Lots of strange things have been rumored concerning Trump. Many claim his "real business" died when his executive team was killed in that helicopter accident. From then on, he became a crackpot.
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  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by bajisima View Post
    I wonder if a lot of it was a gimmick? He doesnt want anybody seeing his tax returns so its entirely possible he intended to lose money for tax purposes. Tax write offs and such. Plus if he was doing hanky panky with the Russians, thats where his real money went. Lots of strange things have been rumored concerning Trump. Many claim his "real business" died when his executive team was killed in that helicopter accident. From then on, he became a crackpot.
    I thought at least some of his tax returns came out.

    Wasn't that a while back when Rachel Maddow humiliated herself?

    Didn't she have a big, ginormous, YUUUGE build up for her show?

    Then it blew up in her face?

    Yeah, I remember that.

    Biggest nothing burger since Geraldo did Al Capones vault back in the 70's.
    Last edited by Miller47; 19th June 2018 at 10:44 AM.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arkady View Post
    That may help to explain why he was such a markedly unsuccessful businessman. Remember, his inherited fortune expanded at about half the rate you'd have gotten in the same period with a generic passive investment like an S&P 500 index fund. Although he could get away with screwing the little guy time and again, because there's a never-ending supply of new suckers (see, for example, the rubes who handed him money for his phony university), the big players learn their lesson after a few cynical stunts like that, and stop doing business with such scumbags. Gradually Trump whittled down his potential market just to the mom-and-pop nincompoops, on the one hand, and Russian gangsters and Kremlin agents, on the other hand, and that makes it damned hard to get a decent return on investment.
    How do you know what Trump's actual value is to make that claim?

    How do you know what Trump inherited?

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
    Like the way you only want to discuss numbers from Obama's last term when looking at economic growth rates, but always use Obama's full term when discussing stock market growth?
    No, that's not something I do. What made you imagine it was? I'm happy to discuss the entirety of Obama's presidency, just as I'm happy to discuss the entirety of all the presidents' tenures, regardless of which indicator we're looking at. Generally, when you do that, you find that Obama's presidency was disappointing, by the high standards of Democratic presidents, but middle-of-the-road by the low standards of Republican presidents.

    For example:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS

    As you can see, the annualized job creation rate for Obama was 1.05%, which compares as follows to the rest of the field:

    FDR 5.35
    Johnson 3.80
    Carter 3.06
    Truman 2.49
    Clinton 2.40
    Kennedy 2.30

    Nixon 2.25
    Reagan 2.06
    Ford 1.08

    Obama 1.05
    Ike 0.86
    Bush 0.61
    WBush 0.13


    Right now Trump's at 1.4% -- it'll be interesting to see where he stands by the time his term is up.

    Anyway, as you can see, Obama would be a median Republican, but is an embarrassment relative to how Democrats usually perform. That's the usual pattern with him -- though not across the board. For example, if you measure how the US dollar did against a basket of currencies, you'll see Obama leads all presidents:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXM

    Similarly, there are some social stats where Obama looks really good:

    http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr48/nvs48_16.pdf
    http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr64/nvsr64_01.pdf
    http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr64/nvsr64_12.pdf

    Of all modern presidents, Obama's presidency is the only one when the percentage of children born to unwed mothers actually went down. It's also a strong period in terms of incarceration -- one of the only times in modern history when the number of incarcerated Americans grew more slowly than the population as a whole.

    Obama's numbers are also outstanding in terms of the change deficit -- he's first or second among all modern presidents if you look at the change of the Surplus-or-Deficit numbers as a share of GDP. His era is also one of the presidential eras when murder rates actually fell, and one of the best with regard to the decline of violent crime rates overall, and property crime rates. His was also one of the presidencies when real average weekly earnings rose and poverty fell.

    In all those cases, I'm measuring from the start of a presidency to the end, wherever I have numbers for that. In no cases do I cherry-pick by counting the last few months of one president's term into the next president's column, merely to skew the numbers in a way that favors my argument.
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  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by bajisima View Post
    I wonder if a lot of it was a gimmick? He doesnt want anybody seeing his tax returns so its entirely possible he intended to lose money for tax purposes. Tax write offs and such. Plus if he was doing hanky panky with the Russians, thats where his real money went. Lots of strange things have been rumored concerning Trump. Many claim his "real business" died when his executive team was killed in that helicopter accident. From then on, he became a crackpot.
    I think he's an example of what happens when a dumb guy gets born into a very rich family and imagines himself a player. At first he slid by on hype and media manipulation. With time that wore thin and he had to move on swindling unsophisticated small-time investors and playing a caricature of the high-finance businessman for bottom-feeding reality TV. When even started drying up, the only way to keep out of personal bankruptcy was to act as a money-laundering agent for mafia types, and to look for sweetheart deals from Russian oligarchs doing favors for Putin.

    I think this deal really sums Trump's business approach up, in a nutshell:

    http://www.politico.com/magazine/sto...an-ties-214116
    http://www.palmbeachdailynews.com/n....s-out-t/nqsmm/
    http://realtime.blog.palmbeachpost.....ince-mid-2004/

    Basically, what happened was Trump made the classic blunder of a dumb investor: getting into a bubble, based on hype, right before it popped. Just as every other get-rich-quick johnny-come-lately imbecile was getting into Florida real estate with the hope of flipping a house to the bigger fool, Trump did the same. He bought a $95 million dilapidated mansion in Florida, with the idea he could slap a new coat of paint on it and sell it for a tidy profit in a hot market. Only, being an idiot, he did it right at the height of the bubble. The bubble burst, nobody wanted the property, and Trump was teetering on the edge of personal bankruptcy with all the debt he'd piled up on the speculation. Then, like magic, one of Putin's cronies swooped in and bought up the property for far more than anyone else had bid - enough for Trump to pay off his initial purchase price and all the money he'd thrown into rehabbing the building.

    For a while, the credulous press tried to pretend it wasn't a laundered bailout from Putin.... trying to explain away the absurdly high resale price on the basis of the work Trump had put into rehabbing the building. But then that spin collapsed when the oligarch tore the building down right after buying it. So, what we were left with is Trump magically selling a house for far more than its fair-market value, in the depths of a real estate bear market, to a Russian oligarch who didn't even want the house. You couldn't make the pay-off more obvious if you tried.

    Trump showed that no matter how bad an investor you are, if Putin sees you as a future political asset, you'll be kept afloat.
    Last edited by Arkady; 19th June 2018 at 11:02 AM.
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  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
    How do you know what Trump's actual value is to make that claim?

    How do you know what Trump inherited?
    I know what Trump himself has said about his net worth over the years, and what others like Forbes have estimated it at, as well as what they estimated Trump's father at. Pick your numbers, but they all give you a miserably low rate of return.

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