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Thread: So This Is What A Trade War Does To The Stock Market

  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLeRoy View Post
    Now that we are in a GENUINE trade war, as opposed to merely threats of a trade war, how is that affecting the stock market? Well, look and see:

    Global stocks sink as Trump ups the stakes in China trade fight
    I sort of wonder if he's trying to curtail it now. Stocks really went parabolic in the year after he was elected. At one point I recall you calling him a "vulgar Keynesian," warning against actions that could stimulate during an already-hot stock market. If he were to continue encouraging the stock growth, a correction could be really sharp and turn recessionary, which would be bad timing coming up on his reelection.

    I could see him continuing with these antics for another year or so and then come 2019-2020, calling an end to it all, saying "we got what we wanted out of that hard trade bargaining," ramming through a massive 13-figure infrastructure bill, and then taking credit for the rebound.

    Who knows though.
    Last edited by Neomalthusian; 19th June 2018 at 12:35 PM.
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  2. #42
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arkady View Post
    I find right-wing rhetoric to be almost charming in the shamelessness of its dishonesty. For example, the S&P 500 is actually only up 21.3% since Trump became president (a mediocre 9.4% annualized increase), but in order to make it sound better, conservatives tend to try to throw the last few months of the Obama presidency into the Trump column, by instead framing things in terms of how things have gone since Trump was elected.

    Needless to say, if the stock market had tanked between election day and inauguration day, there wouldn't be a single conservative quoting the numbers in that way. Their principles will change from one case to the next, to game the numbers. Sometimes they'll take the position that effects of a presidency actually predate the presidency -- as with Trump getting credit for late-2016 growth. Other times they'll take the position that the effects of a presidency don't take hold until much later -- as with Carter being blamed for the extremely severe recession that hit in Reagan's second year in office (a recession with unemployment rates that peaked even higher than they did in the financial crisis). And sometimes they'll even argue for a much longer delay cycle, such that, for example, Bill Clinton is to blame for a financial crisis that hit in Bush's seventh year in office.
    Libertine loves to brag about how Consumer Confidence supposedly SKYROCKETED after Trump's surprise election victory over Hillary Clinton, and in truth, it DID go up a bit after that. But I've been pointing out to him lately that the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence number has BARELY gone up 0.8% since Trump was INAUGURATED. Almost 17 months since he took office, and it hasn't even gone up by ONE percent!

    That is really a pretty damning INDICTMENT of the Trump economic policies. It says, loudly and clearly, that the American public is not very impressed. The piddling little tax cut that Joe Sixpack got is already long gone, eaten up by gasoline and food price increases, with more price hikes coming down the pike.

    Plus, it was only NATURAL that Consumer Confidence was going to rebound after the election----no matter who won. It had been depressed by a lot of UNCERTAINTY about what economic policies were going to look like in 2017 and beyond. The post-mortem evidence showed that confidence rose after the election among Trump voters, but hardly at all among those who did not vote for Trump......
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  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLeRoy View Post
    You know, I both like and admire Warren Buffett, I really do. But I find that particular statement to be both extraordinarily na´ve and completely ahistorical. Was China doing what was in its best economic interests circa 1430 AD when it became completely isolationistic, burned all its ocean-going ships, turned inward, erected a Great Wall of the Mind against the outside world, and proceeded to FORGET much of the technology it had previously invented?
    Well I suppose another way to look at it, is that Buffett knows Trump. He knows his posturing. He isnt worried over NAFTA either. I suspect he figures Trump is putting up a big show for the base and then retreats when its time. Also dont forget Trump has a history of doing this for 30 years. Makes extreme threats and then falls back. That way he can look strong for his followers and reasonable to his foes when he doesnt do what he started out doing.
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  4. #44
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Neomalthusian View Post
    I sort of wonder if he's trying to curtail it now. Stocks really went parabolic in the year after he was elected. At one point I recall you calling him a "vulgar Keynesian," warning against actions that could stimulate during an already-hot stock market. If he were to continue encouraging the stock growth, a correction could be really sharp and turn recessionary, which would be bad timing coming up on his reelection.

    I could see him continuing with these antics for another year or so and then come 2019-2020, calling an end to it all, saying "we got what we wanted out of that hard trade bargaining," ramming through a massive 13-figure infrastructure bill, and then taking credit for the rebound.

    Who knows though.
    Those are interesting thoughts. I am going to ponder them for a while before making a more in-depth response.

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arkady View Post
    That may help to explain why he was such a markedly unsuccessful businessman. Remember, his inherited fortune expanded at about half the rate you'd have gotten in the same period with a generic passive investment like an S&P 500 index fund. Although he could get away with screwing the little guy time and again, because there's a never-ending supply of new suckers (see, for example, the rubes who handed him money for his phony university), the big players learn their lesson after a few cynical stunts like that, and stop doing business with such scumbags. Gradually Trump whittled down his potential market just to the mom-and-pop nincompoops, on the one hand, and Russian gangsters and Kremlin agents, on the other hand, and that makes it damned hard to get a decent return on investment.
    According to an analyst specializing in North Korea, they have read, and studied trumps book as well as the man himself.
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  6. #46
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by labrea View Post
    According to an analyst specializing in North Korea, they have read, and studied trumps book as well as the man himself.
    Little doubt about that! They know the old maxim: Know your enemy!
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  7. #47
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bajisima View Post
    Well I suppose another way to look at it, is that Buffett knows Trump. He knows his posturing. He isnt worried over NAFTA either. I suspect he figures Trump is putting up a big show for the base and then retreats when its time. Also dont forget Trump has a history of doing this for 30 years. Makes extreme threats and then falls back. That way he can look strong for his followers and reasonable to his foes when he doesnt do what he started out doing.
    You and Neomalthusian seem to be having some parallel thoughts here. You both seem to think Trump is STILL bluffing in regard to the tariffs. But it is getting very late in the game for bluffing. These tariff threats are ALREADY affecting investment decisions, and not in any minor way.

  8. #48
    Veteran Member bajisima's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Neomalthusian View Post
    I sort of wonder if he's trying to curtail it now. Stocks really went parabolic in the year after he was elected. At one point I recall you calling him a "vulgar Keynesian," warning against actions that could stimulate during an already-hot stock market. If he were to continue encouraging the stock growth, a correction could be really sharp and turn recessionary, which would be bad timing coming up on his reelection.

    I could see him continuing with these antics for another year or so and then come 2019-2020, calling an end to it all, saying "we got what we wanted out of that hard trade bargaining," ramming through a massive 13-figure infrastructure bill, and then taking credit for the rebound.

    Who knows though.
    Trump likes to take extreme positions and then comes around. He likes to play the tough guy who suddenly becomes aware. He did it with North Korea and likely will with trade. He knows he cant win with these tariffs but if the midwest gets frantic over these and then all of a sudden Trump says "I fixed it, told you I was great at trade negotiations" they will love him all over again. I would bet he will have these trade deals sorted out by early fall. In the meantime these big falls in stock prices are a great time for his Wall Street supporters to get in on some stocks. Warren Buffett said just this morning "its a buying opportunity."
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    Quote Originally Posted by Miller47 View Post
    I thought at least some of his tax returns came out.

    Wasn't that a while back when Rachel Maddow humiliated herself?

    Didn't she have a big, ginormous, YUUUGE build up for her show?

    Then it blew up in her face?

    Yeah, I remember that.

    Biggest nothing burger since Geraldo did Al Capones vault back in the 70's.
    Tump is the biggest nothing burger.

    Just replace life's with trump's.

    Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player That struts and frets his hour upon the stage And then is heard no more: it is a tale Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, Signifying nothing.

  10. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by bajisima View Post
    Trump likes to take extreme positions and then comes around. He likes to play the tough guy who suddenly becomes aware. He did it with North Korea and likely will with trade. He knows he cant win with these tariffs but if the midwest gets frantic over these and then all of a sudden Trump says "I fixed it, told you I was great at trade negotiations" they will love him all over again. I would bet he will have these trade deals sorted out by early fall. In the meantime these big falls in stock prices are a great time for his Wall Street supporters to get in on some stocks. Warren Buffett said just this morning "its a buying opportunity."
    Eventually trust gets eroded.

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