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Thread: So This Is What A Trade War Does To The Stock Market

  1. #51
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by roberthughey View Post
    China has the most to loose.
    I don't follow your 'calculus'. If China decides to stop buying our U.S. government bonds, then who, exactly, is going to be lending us the money to finance our suddenly ballooning budget deficits, Robert? And, whoever it is, they are going to be demanding much higher interest rates!

    Typically, you don't walk into your bank and start making threats against your banker, do you, Robert? China is one of our major bankers.....

  2. #52
    Veteran Member bajisima's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLeRoy View Post
    You and Neomalthusian seem to be having some parallel thoughts here. You both seem to think Trump is STILL bluffing in regard to the tariffs. But it is getting very late in the game for bluffing. These tariff threats are ALREADY affecting investment decisions, and not in any minor way.
    Well first, I knew someone that worked in the Trump Organization back in the late 80s and this was standard practice even back then. Make veiled threats and then at the last second turn it over. Always makes management and leadership look tough yet fabulous negotiators. Secondly, I just cant believe he would let these tariffs go by. He must know HE is at stake here not the agreements. If these issues arent fixed, he is on the ballot in November and impeachment will come.

  3. #53
    Veteran Member bajisima's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by labrea View Post
    Eventually trust gets eroded.
    He has been doing it for over 30 years. Of course it gets eroded, but a new sucker is born every day.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bajisima View Post
    Well first, I knew someone that worked in the Trump Organization back in the late 80s and this was standard practice even back then. Make veiled threats and then at the last second turn it over. Always makes management and leadership look tough yet fabulous negotiators. Secondly, I just cant believe he would let these tariffs go by. He must know HE is at stake here not the agreements. If these issues arent fixed, he is on the ballot in November and impeachment will come.
    Depends on how special, and smart he thinks he is.

  5. #55
    Veteran Member bajisima's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLeRoy View Post
    I don't follow your 'calculus'. If China decides to stop buying our U.S. government bonds, then who, exactly, is going to be lending us the money to finance our suddenly ballooning budget deficits, Robert? And, whoever it is, they are going to be demanding much higher interest rates!

    Typically, you don't walk into your bank and start making threats against your banker, do you, Robert? China is one of our major bankers.....
    Well Russia started buying US debt last year and now they are cutting it in half. Another reason why I think Trump is bluffing here.

    Russia is buying up US debt
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/18/russ...r-us-debt.html
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  6. #56
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bajisima View Post
    Well first, I knew someone that worked in the Trump Organization back in the late 80s and this was standard practice even back then. Make veiled threats and then at the last second turn it over. Always makes management and leadership look tough yet fabulous negotiators. Secondly, I just cant believe he would let these tariffs go by. He must know HE is at stake here not the agreements. If these issues arent fixed, he is on the ballot in November and impeachment will come.
    This all seems to be assuming that he understands trade wars to be a lose-lose, negative-sum game! I don't believe he does! I think Donald Trump quite genuinely views international trade as being a zero-sum, win-lose game. Where if Mexico is gaining by trading with the United States, that MUST mean that we are somehow losing! This is the view of a long-time casino operator, which is what Trump WAS! A casino IS a zero-sum game! Trump has carried over that point of view into the much wider world, where it is wildly wrong and inappropriate. He talks this way ALL the time, says the U.S. is always losing in world trade, and that every other nation is "taking advantage of us". I don't think for a moment that that is 'phony' language; I think he genuinely believes that!


    When he said a few months ago that "Trade wars are good, and easy to win", I think that is his genuine and sincere belief!
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  7. #57
    Veteran Member bajisima's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by labrea View Post
    Depends on how special, and smart he thinks he is.
    He must know the implications if he loses the House and the Senate in the fall? I think its Trump being Trump. Same thing with the immigrant children. Blame past admins, blame congress, blame opposition, schedule meetings and then reach some sort of negotiation where he can come on tv and say "see all fixed I did that."

  8. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by bajisima View Post
    Trump likes to take extreme positions and then comes around. He likes to play the tough guy who suddenly becomes aware. He did it with North Korea and likely will with trade. He knows he cant win with these tariffs but if the midwest gets frantic over these and then all of a sudden Trump says "I fixed it, told you I was great at trade negotiations" they will love him all over again. I would bet he will have these trade deals sorted out by early fall. In the meantime these big falls in stock prices are a great time for his Wall Street supporters to get in on some stocks. Warren Buffett said just this morning "its a buying opportunity."
    He didn't win in 2016 because of the life-long unquestioning Republican voters that have always only ever voted Republican. He won in 2016 thanks to people who don't usually or necessarily vote Republican.

    That means his election was very, very significantly thanks to no other group of swing votes more than the union households, who very often vote Democrat because the union bosses implore them to vote Democrat. They gave the finger to the bosses this time and voted for the guy that actually seemed crazy enough to rip up NAFTA, abandon TPP talks, and start trade wars. Unions who have long xenophobically despised trade agreements and spouted protectionist rhetoric to try to insulate their jobs from cheaper overseas labor quietly became very giddy at the thought of a crazy person actually finally maybe carrying out their agenda. Hillary couldn't possibly have been less believable on these issues. She is an open-borders globalist, and everyone knew that. People who are afraid of their livelihoods being threatened by the competition of cheaper overseas or cross-border labor are secretly delighting in the fact that he is being a raging asshole in illegal immigration and starting trade wars. They are quietly rejoicing.

    So how does Trump win these same union household votes again in 2020? By pointing to his record and pointing to the histrionics from the media and the monied interests over these particular items. He will say to voters, "did you SEE the way the big banks, the EU globalists, the monied corporate and banking interests, the liberal media and think tanks, the Democrat Party establishment, did you not SEE how they all squirmed and shrieked and hollered at my tough trade stances and my tough stance on immigration? Did you notice how the globalists squealed and moaned and cried like babies when I actually did what you've been wanting done for decades? When the globalist monied interests are squealing like stuck pigs, you know something is working. Trump 2020. Making America Even Greater." The union households will vote for him again. It will be easy.
    Last edited by Neomalthusian; 19th June 2018 at 12:59 PM.

  9. #59
    Veteran Member bajisima's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLeRoy View Post
    This all seems to be assuming that he understands trade wars to be a lose-lose, negative-sum game! I don't believe he does! I think Donald Trump quite genuinely views international trade as being a zero-sum, win-lose game. Where if Mexico is gaining by trading with the United States, that MUST mean that we are somehow losing! This is the view of a long-time casino operator, which is what Trump WAS! A casino IS a zero-sum game! Trump has carried over that point of view into the much wider world, where it is wildly wrong and inappropriate. He talks this way ALL the time, says the U.S. is always losing in world trade, and that every other nation is "taking advantage of us". I don't think for a moment that that is 'phony' language; I think he genuinely believes that!


    When he said a few months ago that "Trade wars are good, and easy to win", I think that is his genuine and sincere belief!
    Oh I have no doubt he isnt aware how it operates. I just think its standard operating procedure with him. He has done it on every single issue since he became president. Either that or he is looking for the exit.

  10. #60
    Master political analyst Dittohead not!'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLeRoy View Post
    This all seems to be assuming that he understands trade wars to be a lose-lose, negative-sum game! I don't believe he does! I think Donald Trump quite genuinely views international trade as being a zero-sum, win-lose game. Where if Mexico is gaining by trading with the United States, that MUST mean that we are somehow losing! This is the view of a long-time casino operator, which is what Trump WAS! A casino IS a zero-sum game! Trump has carried over that point of view into the much wider world, where it is wildly wrong and inappropriate. He talks this way ALL the time, says the U.S. is always losing in world trade, and that every other nation is "taking advantage of us". I don't think for a moment that that is 'phony' language; I think he genuinely believes that!


    When he said a few months ago that "Trade wars are good, and easy to win", I think that is his genuine and sincere belief!
    He also believes that global warming is a hoax, perpetrated by the Chinese. I wonder how many other absurd beliefs he has? Does he dismiss evolution in favor of a young Earth creationism? Does he think vaccines cause autism? Does he buy into Alex Jones' theory on chemtrails? Does he believe that a wall is going to keep illegals out of the country? What else must he believe?
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