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Thread: So This Is What A Trade War Does To The Stock Market

  1. #61
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Neomalthusian View Post
    He didn't win in 2016 because of the life-long unquestioning Republican voters that have always only ever voted Republican. He won in 2016 thanks to people who don't usually or necessarily vote Republican.

    That means his election was very, very significantly thanks to no other group of swing votes more than the union households, who very often vote Democrat because the union bosses implore them to vote Democrat. They gave the finger to the bosses this time and voted for the guy that actually seemed crazy enough to rip up NAFTA, abandon TPP talks, and start trade wars. Unions who have long xenophobically despised trade agreements and spouted protectionist rhetoric to try to insulate their jobs from cheaper overseas labor quietly became very giddy at the thought of a crazy person actually finally maybe carrying out their agenda. Hillary couldn't possibly have been less believable on these issues. She is an open-borders globalist, and everyone knew that. People who are afraid of their livelihoods being threatened by the competition of cheaper overseas or cross-border labor are secretly delighting in the fact that he is being a raging asshole in illegal immigration and starting trade wars. They are quietly rejoicing.

    So how does Trump win these same union household votes again in 2020? By pointing to his record and pointing to the histrionics from the media and the monied interests over these particular items. He will say to voters, "did you SEE the way the big banks, the EU globalists, the monied corporate and banking interests, and the liberal Democrat establishment, did you not SEE how they all squirmed and shrieked and hollered at my tough trade stances and my tough stance on immigration? Did you notice how the globalists squealed and moaned and cried like babies when I actually did what you've been wanting done for decades? When the monied interests are squealing like stuck pigs, you know something is working. Trump 2020. Making America Even Greater." The union households will vote for him again. It will be easy.
    This is perhaps true, but he may lose at least SOME of the female union voters. And, more seriously, he may lose large chunks of the FARM vote, at least if these tariffs go through, because China in particular is carefully targeting the farm states with their tariffs on things like pork, soybeans, sorghum, and etc. That is going to HURT the farm states, they KNOW it, and the Republican Senators from those farm states are already making loud noises about it.

  2. #62
    Veteran Member bajisima's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Neomalthusian View Post
    He didn't win in 2016 because of the life-long unquestioning Republican voters that have always only ever voted Republican. He won in 2016 thanks to people who don't usually or necessarily vote Republican.

    That means his election was very, very significantly thanks to no other group of swing votes more than the union households, who very often vote Democrat because the union bosses implore them to vote Democrat. They gave the finger to the bosses this time and voted for the guy that actually seemed crazy enough to rip up NAFTA, abandon TPP talks, and start trade wars. Unions who have long xenophobically despised trade agreements and spouted protectionist rhetoric to try to insulate their jobs from cheaper overseas labor quietly became very giddy at the thought of a crazy person actually finally maybe carrying out their agenda. Hillary couldn't possibly have been less believable on these issues. She is an open-borders globalist, and everyone knew that. People who are afraid of their livelihoods being threatened by the competition of cheaper overseas or cross-border labor are secretly delighting in the fact that he is being a raging asshole in illegal immigration and starting trade wars. They are quietly rejoicing.

    So how does Trump win these same union household votes again in 2020? By pointing to his record and pointing to the histrionics from the media and the monied interests over these particular items. He will say to voters, "did you SEE the way the big banks, the EU globalists, the monied corporate interests, and the liberal did you SEE how they all squirmed and shrieked and hollered at my tough trade stances and my tough stance on immigration? Did you notice how the globalists squealed and moaned and cried like babies when I actually did what you've been wanting for decades? When the monied interests squeal like stuck pigs, you know something is working. Trump 2020. Making America Even Greater." The union households will vote for him again. It will be easy.
    I work with construction unions and they absolutely love him. Best president ever and all that. They love the saber rattling. Tariffs are the greatest thing ever to them. Their management however thinks vastly different. But they dont vote for Trump. Its why he is going up to Duluth tomorrow, the miners love these tariffs. I am sure he will go on about them all night. Unions in the last decade or so have become very isolationist. "Outsiders" steal their jobs and they want closed borders. There is a running theme here that non union people and older union workers dont get but modern ones are on a totally different page. This is their guy.

    Trump's steel tariffs rile markets, please miners - Minnesota Brown
    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/04/u...ta-mining.html
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  3. #63
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bajisima View Post
    He must know the implications if he loses the House and the Senate in the fall? I think its Trump being Trump. Same thing with the immigrant children. Blame past admins, blame congress, blame opposition, schedule meetings and then reach some sort of negotiation where he can come on tv and say "see all fixed I did that."
    Heh, I have heard the 'theory'----maybe from YOU!!----that if he loses both houses of Congress in the fall, he will suddenly PIVOT and start saying he is REALLY a Democrat! And start coming out with more Dem-friendly policies, like pushing for an increase in the minimum wage, being more union-friendly, and so forth.....And I wouldn't put it past the man. He has all the 'flexibility' of Gumbo. He BRAGS about how 'flexible' he is!

    Groucho Marx: "Those are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others."
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arkady View Post
    I've used a number of different numbers from different sources, but regardless of their differences, they point to the same big picture truth. For example, in November 1976, Trump said his net worth was "more than $200 million.":

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesl.../#19953bc54bfd

    To give him the best chance to show a decent return, we'll assume it was just negligibly more than $200 million, and count that as exactly $200 million. As of March 2018 it was just $3,100 million:

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalex.../#a6551f413575

    This calculator will give you total return for the S&P 500:

    https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

    In that time, a generic investment in an S&P 500 index fund would have gotten 11.348% annualized return (dividends reinvested), for a total return of 8403.270%. So, if he merely did as well as someone who invested by blindly picking a random selection of large cap stocks, he'd have been worth about $17 billion in March 2018, instead of just $3.1 billion.

    Now, of course, it's possible Trump was lying. Maybe he is such a shameless liar he doubled his real net worth in 1976. But then he'd still be worth $8.5 billion today. And maybe today Forbes is underestimating his worth by half. But, even making BOTH those forgiving assumptions --that he was half as wealthy as reported in 1976 and twice as wealthy as reported today, he STILL got crappy returns.

    And even that is underestimating the extent of his incompetence for two reasons:

    (1) He was managing a mid-cap company, not a large cap one, and they tend to get better returns. So, he was basically controlling a smaller, more potentially nimble company, and still getting rings run around him by the big guys.

    (2) It doesn't count the tens or even hundreds of millions he would have gotten from his father's estate when he passed away. At the time his father was worth as much as $300 million, and at Donald's urging had disinherited one of Donald's brothers' so Donald's net worth should have gotten a big boost then.

    There are lots of numbers out there you can use, but they all show the same thing: Donald Trump was a MISERABLY incompetent businessman, who got a far lower return with his father's money than a literally retarded person would have gotten with the same windfall just by leaving it sitting in a passively managed index fund.
    That is putting a lot of stock in what Donald Trump says.

    You have no idea what the numbers actually are.

    Your analysis doesn't take into account 50 years of extravagant spending.

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by bajisima View Post
    He must know the implications if he loses the House and the Senate in the fall? I think its Trump being Trump. Same thing with the immigrant children. Blame past admins, blame congress, blame opposition, schedule meetings and then reach some sort of negotiation where he can come on tv and say "see all fixed I did that."
    Remember this?

    The Senate on Thursday rejected immigration legislation crafted by centrists in both parties after President Trump threatened to veto the bill if it made it to his desk.

    http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3...migration-bill

  6. #66
    Veteran Member bajisima's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLeRoy View Post
    Heh, I have heard the 'theory'----maybe from YOU!!----that if he loses both houses of Congress in the fall, he will suddenly PIVOT and start saying he is REALLY a Democrat! And start coming out with more Dem-friendly policies, like pushing for an increase in the minimum wage, being more union-friendly, and so forth.....And I wouldn't put it past the man. He has all the 'flexibility' of Gumbo. He BRAGS about how 'flexible' he is!

    Groucho Marx: "Those are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others."
    I think that came from Ana Navarro on CNN. She is a NeverTrumper and swears if he loses them both he will re-declare himself a democrat just to be on the winning team!
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  7. #67
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dittohead not! View Post
    He also believes that global warming is a hoax, perpetrated by the Chinese. I wonder how many other absurd beliefs he has? Does he dismiss evolution in favor of a young Earth creationism? Does he think vaccines cause autism? Does he buy into Alex Jones' theory on chemtrails? Does he believe that a wall is going to keep illegals out of the country? What else must he believe?
    He DOES think that vaccines cause autism. He has endorsed that 'theory' in the past. I have never heard him say anything about evolution or creationism. But we know what his friend Dr. Ben Carson thinks on that issue.

  8. #68
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bajisima View Post
    I think that came from Ana Navarro on CNN. She is a NeverTrumper and swears if he loses them both he will re-declare himself a democrat just to be on the winning team!
    I like Ana Navarro. A feisty woman, and I generally agree with her, except about Jeb Bush.
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  9. #69
    Veteran Member bajisima's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLeRoy View Post
    He DOES think that vaccines cause autism. He has endorsed that 'theory' in the past. I have never heard him say anything about evolution or creationism. But we know what his friend Dr. Ben Carson thinks on that issue.
    I think he has said his own children were vaccinated but he doesnt want vaccinations mandated. He is pals with RFK Jr. and the Kennedys are well known anti vaxxers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Arkady View Post

    As a reminder, deficits fell by about half on Obama's watch. That's a massive decrease in stimulus, which is what makes the growth in that period all the more impressive.

    Try to think of it in business terms. Let's say that for years you've been running your business on $100,000 per year, and earning just $60,000. Then you start running it on $80,000 per year and still earning $60,000. What is likely to happen to the growth rate of your business? Well, we'd expect it to decline, other things being equal. Your'e going to have to be cutting back on the spending that might otherwise grow the business, even though you're continuing to run up debt. That's what happened on Obama's watch. He inherited a deficit-addicted economy, and started to ween it off that addiction, even as he somehow managed to get a better annualized real growth rate than his predecessor.
    GWB largest budget deficit was $459 billion. Much of that were brides in the form of pork spending to get Congressional Dems to go along with his surge in Iraq.

    But that doesn't matter much, the deficit number counts debt as income.

    I would be like taking a $100k loan out against your 401k and claiming you made an extra $100k that year.

    https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-conten...z1-fy2019.xlsx

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