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Thread: Are We Headed For A Bear Market?

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by bajisima View Post
    But if you watched his rally in ND last night, the supporters there said they will give him some leeway for a while. Most of them said 6 months or so before they worry. He has convinced them he will fix the trade issue. In fact one of the things he mentioned which got me laughing, was he likened it to roasting a turkey. He said "we cant take the turkey out until its done or it will be a disaster and undone." He said trade was the same, cant panic until its all done. lol
    Awkward analogy, perhaps, but true.

    It ain't ova till it's ova.

    I don't know if he'll win, lose, or draw, but it's just getting started.

  2. #22
    Veteran Member bajisima's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Miller47 View Post
    Awkward analogy, perhaps, but true.

    It ain't ova till it's ova.

    I don't know if he'll win, lose, or draw, but it's just getting started.
    Well he often makes awkward comparisons.. Dont usually care too much for CNBCs Jim Kramer but he said something interesting the other day. He said knowing Trump, he is tired of hearing how "this is Obama's economy" so he fully intends to wreck it for awhile with all the trade talk tariffs. The market will falter and go down over the course of the summer. Then Kramer claims Trump will end all the tariff nonsense early in September and of course the market will have big rallies. Then Trump can fully claim its "his economy" going into midterms and that he "saved it." Interesting.
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  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by bajisima View Post
    Well he often makes awkward comparisons.. Dont usually care too much for CNBCs Jim Kramer but he said something interesting the other day. He said knowing Trump, he is tired of hearing how "this is Obama's economy" so he fully intends to wreck it for awhile with all the trade talk tariffs. The market will falter and go down over the course of the summer. Then Kramer claims Trump will end all the tariff nonsense early in September and of course the market will have big rallies. Then Trump can fully claim its "his economy" going into midterms and that he "saved it." Interesting.
    Right before the mid terms?

    A fiendish plan, indeed.

    But, it just might work...

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLeRoy View Post
    We could be. By the end of the summer, and especially if our trade war with China, Europe, Canada, Mexico, Japan, Australia, and other countries continues to heat up, we very well could be.

    We are already close to correction territory on the Dow, from the high it reached in late January of this year, when it topped out at 26616.71 on January 26 (2018). The Dow closed today at 24117.59, which is 90.61% of its January high. Not quite a 10% drop from the high, but getting close. Another bad few days could certainly put us into correction territory, and then another 10% drop would mark a crash, and mean that we are in a bear market.

    No one who has any sense of stock market history should be surprised by this: Trade wars lead to bear markets.

    That high in the stock market we saw last January? That was PROBABLY the high point for the stock market, for as long as Donald Trump is President. That's my prediction. You've already seen the high point, as far as the stock market is concerned, for the Trump Presidency.
    Already things are looking pretty shaky for investors, which is bizarre when you consider how much of an advantage there should be, in terms of stock prices, when you lower corporate taxes the way the Republicans did. The ability to translate profits more efficiently into capital gains or dividends ought to have done great things for stock values (albeit at the cost of huge deficits), but I guess that after the corporations responded to that not by way of investing in research, expanded physical assets, and training, but instead through dividends and stock buy-backs, it amounted to essentially a one-time increase in stock values, with no benefit down the road.

    On inauguration day, the S&P 500 was at 2,271.31. Today it's at 2,695.25, with futures pointed lower. That's a decent annualized return of about 12.7% -- not Obamaesque or Clintonesque, but investors have nothing to complain about. But it was front-loaded and we're essentially flat for 2018, so it really is looking more and more like that was a one-time adjustment related to the tax windfall.
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  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by bajisima View Post
    Well he often makes awkward comparisons.. Dont usually care too much for CNBCs Jim Kramer but he said something interesting the other day. He said knowing Trump, he is tired of hearing how "this is Obama's economy" so he fully intends to wreck it for awhile with all the trade talk tariffs. The market will falter and go down over the course of the summer. Then Kramer claims Trump will end all the tariff nonsense early in September and of course the market will have big rallies. Then Trump can fully claim its "his economy" going into midterms and that he "saved it." Interesting.

    Yeah, that sounds like a Trump plan. Kinda like how he "saved" all of those kids who were separated from their parents while seeking asylum in the US.
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  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arkady View Post
    Already things are looking pretty shaky for investors, which is bizarre when you consider how much of an advantage there should be, in terms of stock prices, when you lower corporate taxes the way the Republicans did. The ability to translate profits more efficiently into capital gains or dividends ought to have done great things for stock values (albeit at the cost of huge deficits), but I guess that after the corporations responded to that not by way of investing in research, expanded physical assets, and training, but instead through dividends and stock buy-backs, it amounted to essentially a one-time increase in stock values, with no benefit down the road.

    On inauguration day, the S&P 500 was at 2,271.31. Today it's at 2,695.25, with futures pointed lower. That's a decent annualized return of about 12.7% -- not Obamaesque or Clintonesque, but investors have nothing to complain about. But it was front-loaded and we're essentially flat for 2018, so it really is looking more and more like that was a one-time adjustment related to the tax windfall.
    So, you predicting gloom and doom going forward?

    You wouldn't be the only one...

  7. #27
    Veteran Member bajisima's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NightSwimmer View Post
    Yeah, that sounds like a Trump plan. Kinda like how he "saved" all of those kids who were separated from their parents while seeking asylum in the US.
    It has worked for him before I fully expect he will do it again.

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by bajisima View Post
    It has worked for him before I fully expect he will do it again.

    It always works on his minion base. He's still bragging in his weekly campaign rallies that there is absolutely nothing that he could do or say that would turn his base against him.

    Merely holding regular campaign rallies during a president's first term in office would be enough to turn normal people away.

  9. #29
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Miller47 View Post
    So, you predicting gloom and doom going forward?

    You wouldn't be the only one...
    You know, I am at least willing to stick my neck out and make specific predictions, as I did in my top post here. But you? Nooooooo. You're not willing to put your money where your mouth is.

    Do you think the Dow is going to 27,000, which would top the market high it hit in January? If so, when?

    Do you think the Dow is going to 30,000? To 50,000??

    Too BASHFUL to actually MAKE a forecast, Miller? Or just like to take potshots from the peanut stand?
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  10. #30
    Veteran Member bajisima's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLeRoy View Post
    You know, I am at least willing to stick my neck out and make specific predictions, as I did in my top post here. But you? Nooooooo. You're not willing to put your money where your mouth is.

    Do you think the Dow is going to 27,000, which would top the market high it hit in January? If so, when?

    Do you think the Dow is going to 30,000? To 50,000??

    Too BASHFUL to actually MAKE a forecast, Miller? Or just like to take potshots from the peanut stand?
    The elections of 2016 really made a mess of predicting for me, since I ended up being wrong on every single election. But I will gamble here. I do think we will hit some new highs later this year. There is still a bit of a bounce left for the stock market probably due to GDP news. I do think though we are headed for some trouble in another year or so, as we are already overdue for a big correction. As for Dow 30,000 I do think we will see that within 5 years. 50,000 yea I am sure we will get there too but probably not for a couple decades. Now dont crucify me when I am proven wrong!
    Thanks from BigLeRoy and Wonderer

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