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Thread: Are We Headed For A Bear Market?

  1. #31
    New Member BigBob's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLeRoy View Post
    We could be. By the end of the summer, and especially if our trade war with China, Europe, Canada, Mexico, Japan, Australia, and other countries continues to heat up, we very well could be.

    We are already close to correction territory on the Dow, from the high it reached in late January of this year, when it topped out at 26616.71 on January 26 (2018). The Dow closed today at 24117.59, which is 90.61% of its January high. Not quite a 10% drop from the high, but getting close. Another bad few days could certainly put us into correction territory, and then another 10% drop would mark a crash, and mean that we are in a bear market.

    No one who has any sense of stock market history should be surprised by this: Trade wars lead to bear markets.

    That high in the stock market we saw last January? That was PROBABLY the high point for the stock market, for as long as Donald Trump is President. That's my prediction. You've already seen the high point, as far as the stock market is concerned, for the Trump Presidency.
    I saw a recession in our future when tRumputin was elected. it is a natural effect of repukes policies.

  2. #32
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bajisima View Post
    The elections of 2016 really made a mess of predicting for me, since I ended up being wrong on every single election. But I will gamble here. I do think we will hit some new highs later this year. There is still a bit of a bounce left for the stock market probably due to GDP news. I do think though we are headed for some trouble in another year or so, as we are already overdue for a big correction. As for Dow 30,000 I do think we will see that within 5 years. 50,000 yea I am sure we will get there too but probably not for a couple decades. Now dont crucify me when I am proven wrong!
    Interesting news: 2018 1st Quarter GDP was just revised down to 2.0%, from 2.2%. This was the final revision for Q1 2018. We are still expecting a STRONG 2nd Quarter GDP report, though. I do imagine that will lift the stock market for a while, but not back to its January highs. I'm also on record as predicting that this 2nd Quarter GDP report will mark the high point of GDP growth for the Trump Presidency. After this, growth will slow down. Doesn't mean ABRUPTLY, as Miller47 misinterpreted me a few weeks back. We will still get a DECENT 3rd Quarter GDP report, just not as good as this looming 2nd Quarter GDP report. And so on.

    Do I think the Dow will hit 30,000? I'm still uncertain on that. I don't know WHO the next President will be, for one thing! America MAY have already reached its economic zenith, I'm sorry to say. But that, too, may be premature. Your prediction that we may hit Dow 30,000 in the next five years is certainly at least plausible, especially if there are some big technological breakthroughs, and if we get some good Presidential leadership, and avoid major military conflicts AND trade wars! After all, it would only take a bit more than a 20% increase from current levels to get there. But for the near term, I think the market is headed in the other direction....
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  3. #33
    Veteran Member bajisima's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLeRoy View Post
    Interesting news: 2018 1st Quarter GDP was just revised down to 2.0%, from 2.2%. This was the final revision for Q1 2018. We are still expecting a STRONG 2nd Quarter GDP report, though. I do imagine that will lift the stock market for a while, but not back to its January highs. I'm also on record as predicting that this 2nd Quarter GDP report will mark the high point of GDP growth for the Trump Presidency. After this, growth will slow down. Doesn't mean ABRUPTLY, as Miller47 misinterpreted me a few weeks back. We will still get a DECENT 3rd Quarter GDP report, just not as good as this looming 2nd Quarter GDP report. And so on.

    Do I think the Dow will hit 30,000? I'm still uncertain on that. I don't know WHO the next President will be, for one thing! America MAY have already reached its economic zenith, I'm sorry to say. But that, too, may be premature. Your prediction that we may hit Dow 30,000 in the next five years is certainly at least plausible, especially if there are some big technological breakthroughs, and if we get some good Presidential leadership, and avoid major military conflicts AND trade wars! After all, it would only take a bit more than a 20% increase from current levels to get there. But for the near term, I think the market is headed in the other direction....
    It is hard to say. I have a friend who pulled everything out of the stock market, not due to Trump, but because she fears the boomers retiring and the younger kids not having two nickels to rub together is going to set us way way back. As for reaching 27,000 again, I say its possible because Trump is Barnum. He has done this stuff before and somehow he pulls it off. I do think he is bluffing on these tariffs and he is going to let it ride and hurt over the summer. Then he is going to pull a rabbit out of a hat and "save the world" before midterms so he can brag. See I am a cynic to an extent on this stuff. I feel these rich guys are all intertwined and they pat each other on the back. Wall Street wants those corporate tax cuts so they want Trump. They dont like him, but they want him. So in turn they pull and put money when its needed. I think if they hear Nancy Pelosi telling voters she is going to raise corporate rates back up, they will respond in kind and help Trump in the midterms.

  4. #34
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bajisima View Post
    It is hard to say. I have a friend who pulled everything out of the stock market, not due to Trump, but because she fears the boomers retiring and the younger kids not having two nickels to rub together is going to set us way way back. As for reaching 27,000 again, I say its possible because Trump is Barnum. He has done this stuff before and somehow he pulls it off. I do think he is bluffing on these tariffs and he is going to let it ride and hurt over the summer. Then he is going to pull a rabbit out of a hat and "save the world" before midterms so he can brag. See I am a cynic to an extent on this stuff. I feel these rich guys are all intertwined and they pat each other on the back. Wall Street wants those corporate tax cuts so they want Trump. They dont like him, but they want him. So in turn they pull and put money when its needed. I think if they hear Nancy Pelosi telling voters she is going to raise corporate rates back up, they will respond in kind and help Trump in the midterms.
    Here's the difference between us: I DON'T think Trump is 'bluffing' on these tariffs, at all. If there has been ONE constant in Donald Trump's worldview, expressed over a period of THREE decades, it is his views on international trade, that he thinks of it as being a zero-sum game, that if Mexico gains from trading with the U.S., it MUST mean that the U.S. is losing; and that every other nation in the world is 'taking advantage' of us. These views have NEVER changed, as far as I can tell, and they are just wildly wrong. They are the zero-sum views of a casino owner, because a casino IS a zero-sum game, but the world at large is just NOT like that. But Trump does not 'get' that. So yes, he REALLY does believe that "trade wars are good, and easy to win".

    He is NOT 'bluffing' about this stuff!
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  5. #35
    Veteran Member bajisima's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLeRoy View Post
    Here's the difference between us: I DON'T think Trump is 'bluffing' on these tariffs, at all. If there has been ONE constant in Donald Trump's worldview, expressed over a period of THREE decades, it is his views on international trade, that he thinks of it as being a zero-sum game, that if Mexico gains from trading with the U.S., it MUST mean that the U.S. is losing; and that every other nation in the world is 'taking advantage' of us. These views have NEVER changed, as far as I can tell, and they are just wildly wrong. They are the zero-sum views of a casino owner, because a casino IS a zero-sum game, but the world at large is just NOT like that. But Trump does not 'get' that. So yes, he REALLY does believe that "trade wars are good, and easy to win".

    He is NOT 'bluffing' about this stuff!
    You could very well be right. I do though wonder if he is telling Pres Xi, "When I am out of office I and my sons will invest in China" or something if that doesnt push the needle on tariffs? While he doesnt get the details, I dont see him wanting to lose on this issue either. Look at that Foxconn factory, they have been promising it will be built in the US since GW. Yet today they broke ground. Why? I have to think hanky panky is going on behind the scenes.

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Miller47 View Post
    So, you predicting gloom and doom going forward?

    You wouldn't be the only one...
    Nah. I don't tend to make predictions when it comes to the stock market. If I tended to know where it is going, I'd be insanely rich. Instead, I'm just a buy-and-hold, dollar-cost-averaging, index-fund kind of investor, when it comes to the bulk of my money. I just don't have enough confidence in my thoughts about where things are heading to risk more than a token amount.
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  7. #37
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arkady View Post
    Nah. I don't tend to make predictions when it comes to the stock market. If I tended to know where it is going, I'd be insanely rich. Instead, I'm just a buy-and-hold, dollar-cost-averaging, index-fund kind of investor, when it comes to the bulk of my money. I just don't have enough confidence in my thoughts about where things are heading to risk more than a token amount.
    I am pretty much the same way, although I DO enjoy making predictions. And, in early 2008, I saw the handwriting on the wall, and took ALL of my retirement funds out of the stock market, and put them into U.S. government bonds, which SAVED me later that year, when the stock market collapsed. I started very gingerly dipping my toes back into the market in March of 2009, after the passage of ARRA, and then more confidently in the summer of 2009, when it seemed that the worst was over. That was really the only time I have ever tried to 'time the market'. And, by GOD, I guess I sure as hell did time it RIGHT, that time.

  8. #38
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    The economic pundit for the CBC is concerned about the yield curves inverting. Apparently in the past this has been a good indicator of an impending recession. He offered this graph:



    In the link, it is interactive.

    As yield curves threaten to invert, market watchers sit up and pay attention | CBC News
    Thanks from BigLeRoy

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLeRoy View Post
    I am pretty much the same way, although I DO enjoy making predictions. And, in early 2008, I saw the handwriting on the wall, and took ALL of my retirement funds out of the stock market, and put them into U.S. government bonds, which SAVED me later that year, when the stock market collapsed. I started very gingerly dipping my toes back into the market in March of 2009, after the passage of ARRA, and then more confidently in the summer of 2009, when it seemed that the worst was over. That was really the only time I have ever tried to 'time the market'. And, by GOD, I guess I sure as hell did time it RIGHT, that time.
    I didn't move in 2008. Wish I had. I did make some other smart moves based on predictions before and after that, though. At the end of 2000, I pulled my money out of S&P 500 index funds and moved them to EFA (non-US large caps), with the idea Bush was a halfwit and so the US would likely underperform its peers. Then, in late 2008, I went the other way and moved back into the S&P 500, with the idea that the US's stocks had been beaten down more than its peers thanks to Bush, so they'd out-perform in coming years. Each of those worked out well.

  10. #40
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RNG View Post
    The economic pundit for the CBC is concerned about the yield curves inverting. Apparently in the past this has been a good indicator of an impending recession. He offered this graph:



    In the link, it is interactive.

    As yield curves threaten to invert, market watchers sit up and pay attention | CBC News
    I think an inverted yield curve IS a pretty good leading indicator of a recession, but it's important to note that the curve hasn't inverted yet, and in fact I would say it isn't even really close to inverting yet. But definitely worth keeping an eye on, yes. I still think a recession is a ways off, yet. I'm still saying LATE 2019 or early 2020 for the next recession. However.....if the Republicans manage to hang on to control of both houses of Congress in November, then they just might ram through yet another hugely irresponsible tax cut early next year, to GOOSE the economy even more, to try to keep it going through the 2020 Presidential election.....which would only make the current BUBBLE----for that IS what it is----even larger. Which would only make the ultimate and inevitable collapse even more painful and resounding.

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