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Thread: Are We Headed For A Bear Market?

  1. #41
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arkady View Post
    I didn't move in 2008. Wish I had. I did make some other smart moves based on predictions before and after that, though. At the end of 2000, I pulled my money out of S&P 500 index funds and moved them to EFA (non-US large caps), with the idea Bush was a halfwit and so the US would likely underperform its peers. Then, in late 2008, I went the other way and moved back into the S&P 500, with the idea that the US's stocks had been beaten down more than its peers thanks to Bush, so they'd out-perform in coming years. Each of those worked out well.
    It was the Bear Stearns collapse in early 2008 that convinced me that the Bush/Cheney/Greenspan bubble was finally imploding and that calamity was right around the corner. That was the first domino to fall....

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLeRoy View Post
    Interesting news: 2018 1st Quarter GDP was just revised down to 2.0%, from 2.2%. This was the final revision for Q1 2018. We are still expecting a STRONG 2nd Quarter GDP report, though. I do imagine that will lift the stock market for a while, but not back to its January highs. I'm also on record as predicting that this 2nd Quarter GDP report will mark the high point of GDP growth for the Trump Presidency. After this, growth will slow down. Doesn't mean ABRUPTLY, as Miller47 misinterpreted me a few weeks back. We will still get a DECENT 3rd Quarter GDP report, just not as good as this looming 2nd Quarter GDP report. And so on.

    Do I think the Dow will hit 30,000? I'm still uncertain on that. I don't know WHO the next President will be, for one thing! America MAY have already reached its economic zenith, I'm sorry to say. But that, too, may be premature. Your prediction that we may hit Dow 30,000 in the next five years is certainly at least plausible, especially if there are some big technological breakthroughs, and if we get some good Presidential leadership, and avoid major military conflicts AND trade wars! After all, it would only take a bit more than a 20% increase from current levels to get there. But for the near term, I think the market is headed in the other direction....
    I am so looking forward to you losing this bet. It is so silly to claim that the market won't exceed its Jan high under Trump.

    It will hit 30K by the start of Trump's second term.

  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
    I am so looking forward to you losing this bet. It is so silly to claim that the market won't exceed its Jan high under Trump.

    It will hit 30K by the start of Trump's second term.
    I hope you are right.

    Because a rising stock market is good for America.

    No matter who is president.

    Of course there will always be some like Bill Maher, who wants the economy to crash, and another recession to occur, just because of his hatred for Trump.

    Some of our members want the same.

    That's pretty anti American right there...

  4. #44
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
    I am so looking forward to you losing this bet. It is so silly to claim that the market won't exceed its Jan high under Trump.

    It will hit 30K by the start of Trump's second term.
    Oh. Did you want to make a bet on that? You're saying 30K by January 2021? And with the additional bet on top of that, that Trump WILL be re-elected?

    The markets are up nicely today, but credit for that goes to the Fed, for giving the green light to most of the big banks to up their dividends....

  5. #45
    Veteran Member aboutenough's Avatar
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    Trying to figure out if they is a biased viewpoint on this issue. I have been investing in the stock market for 25 years and I see no reason our economy could crash right now. We are going to see corrections all the time , because there is no such thing as a market going up all the time. GDP is ok, job growth is good and unemployment is way down. The out look is good, so why the worry ?

  6. #46
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by aboutenough View Post
    Trying to figure out if they is a biased viewpoint on this issue. I have been investing in the stock market for 25 years and I see no reason our economy could crash right now. We are going to see corrections all the time , because there is no such thing as a market going up all the time. GDP is ok, job growth is good and unemployment is way down. The out look is good, so why the worry ?
    Why the worry? Here's why:

    https://www.bing.com/news/search?q=C...isis&FORM=EWRE

    From the first link there:

    The tax cuts championed by President Trump are helping push the nation toward an unprecedented level of debt, heightening the risk of another financial crisis, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

    The budget office’s annual look at the government’s long-term financial outlook paints a grim picture, projecting soaring deficits in the coming years, with debt ultimately peaking at more than 152% of the nation’s gross domestic product.

    “The prospect of large and growing debt poses substantial risks for the nation and presents policy makers with significant challenges,” Keith Hall, director of the budget office, said in a statement.

    LeRoy: In short, aboutenough, we are in a MAJOR debt bubble, and Americans are spending themselves silly, just as they did in the run up to the massive financial/banking/credit crisis of 2008/2009. Which is WHY Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein recently said, with dark humor, that "I haven't felt this good since 2006."
    Last edited by BigLeRoy; 29th June 2018 at 10:40 AM.

  7. #47
    Veteran Member aboutenough's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLeRoy View Post
    Why the worry? Here's why:

    https://www.bing.com/news/search?q=C...isis&FORM=EWRE

    From the first link there:

    The tax cuts championed by President Trump are helping push the nation toward an unprecedented level of debt, heightening the risk of another financial crisis, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

    The budget office’s annual look at the government’s long-term financial outlook paints a grim picture, projecting soaring deficits in the coming years, with debt ultimately peaking at more than 152% of the nation’s gross domestic product.

    “The prospect of large and growing debt poses substantial risks for the nation and presents policy makers with significant challenges,” Keith Hall, director of the budget office, said in a statement.

    LeRoy: In short, aboutenough, we are in a MAJOR debt bubble, and Americans are spending themselves silly, just as they did in the run up to the massive financial/banking/credit crisis of 2008/2009. Which is WHY Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein recently said, with dark humor, that "I haven't felt this good since 2006."
    We have had the debt problem for some time and it wasn't just caused by Trumps tax cut. Came from lots of other things, such as wars. Trumps idea with tax cuts is to jump start our economy so the prosperity increases our GDP , hence more taxes paid into the system. Its a gamble, but I think its a gamble worth taking. Trump is trying to get more production happening again in America, so jobs equal more tax payers. The tariffs is just his way of leveling the playing field, so companies keep their production here instead of going oversea's.

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arkady View Post
    I didn't move in 2008. Wish I had. I did make some other smart moves based on predictions before and after that, though. At the end of 2000, I pulled my money out of S&P 500 index funds and moved them to EFA (non-US large caps), with the idea Bush was a halfwit and so the US would likely underperform its peers. Then, in late 2008, I went the other way and moved back into the S&P 500, with the idea that the US's stocks had been beaten down more than its peers thanks to Bush, so they'd out-perform in coming years. Each of those worked out well.
    It's amazing that financial geniuses like you and Leroy hit the exact peaks and troughs of the stock market and cleaned up. I can't believe that you even have time to brag about here with such fortunes to spend.

    Bet you guys doubled down the day after Trump won.
    Thanks from excalibur

  9. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLeRoy View Post
    Why the worry? Here's why:

    https://www.bing.com/news/search?q=C...isis&FORM=EWRE

    From the first link there:

    The tax cuts championed by President Trump are helping push the nation toward an unprecedented level of debt, heightening the risk of another financial crisis, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

    The budget office’s annual look at the government’s long-term financial outlook paints a grim picture, projecting soaring deficits in the coming years, with debt ultimately peaking at more than 152% of the nation’s gross domestic product.

    “The prospect of large and growing debt poses substantial risks for the nation and presents policy makers with significant challenges,” Keith Hall, director of the budget office, said in a statement.

    LeRoy: In short, aboutenough, we are in a MAJOR debt bubble, and Americans are spending themselves silly, just as they did in the run up to the massive financial/banking/credit crisis of 2008/2009. Which is WHY Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein recently said, with dark humor, that "I haven't felt this good since 2006."
    What happened to debt as a % of GDP under Obama?

    In 2016 Obama added $1,400 billion to the debt, in 2017 Trump added $666 billion. Trump won't get close to $1,400 billion in 2018, even with the tax cuts.

    There's is no way Trump will top Obama, the king of debt.

  10. #50
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
    It's amazing that financial geniuses like you and Leroy hit the exact peaks and troughs of the stock market and cleaned up. I can't believe that you even have time to brag about here with such fortunes to spend.

    Bet you guys doubled down the day after Trump won.
    The DAY after Trump won, I was here on PH, predicting that the stock market would see a very nice little BOOM, because the market certainly LOVES tax cuts and talk of trillion dollar infrastructure programs. Stock market investors tend to think in terms of the SHORT RUN first. They only think in terms of the long run much, MUCH later. In fact, if you have been following what I have been saying at ALL, I have said that if the Republicans somehow manage to hang on to control of both houses of Congress in November, they will almost certainly try to GOOSE the economy again next year with yet ANOTHER huge and hugely irresponsible tax cut, to try to make sure their bubble economy keeps right on going through the Presidential election year of 2020. The bubble would grow even larger in that case, and the eventual but inevitable implosion would be even more painful, but that is what they would do. Shrug.

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