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Thread: Are We Headed For A Bear Market?

  1. #1
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Are We Headed For A Bear Market?

    We could be. By the end of the summer, and especially if our trade war with China, Europe, Canada, Mexico, Japan, Australia, and other countries continues to heat up, we very well could be.

    We are already close to correction territory on the Dow, from the high it reached in late January of this year, when it topped out at 26616.71 on January 26 (2018). The Dow closed today at 24117.59, which is 90.61% of its January high. Not quite a 10% drop from the high, but getting close. Another bad few days could certainly put us into correction territory, and then another 10% drop would mark a crash, and mean that we are in a bear market.

    No one who has any sense of stock market history should be surprised by this: Trade wars lead to bear markets.

    That high in the stock market we saw last January? That was PROBABLY the high point for the stock market, for as long as Donald Trump is President. That's my prediction. You've already seen the high point, as far as the stock market is concerned, for the Trump Presidency.
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    Thought Provocateur NightSwimmer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLeRoy View Post
    We could be. By the end of the summer, and especially if our trade war with China, Europe, Canada, Mexico, Japan, Australia, and other countries continues to heat up, we very well could be.

    We are already close to correction territory on the Dow, from the high it reached in late January of this year, when it topped out at 26616.71 on January 26 (2018). The Dow closed today at 24117.59, which is 90.61% of its January high. Not quite a 10% drop from the high, but getting close. Another bad few days could certainly put us into correction territory, and then another 10% drop would mark a crash, and mean that we are in a bear market.

    No one who has any sense of stock market history should be surprised by this: Trade wars lead to bear markets.

    That high in the stock market we saw last January? That was PROBABLY the high point for the stock market, for as long as Donald Trump is President. That's my prediction. You've already seen the high point, as far as the stock market is concerned, for the Trump Presidency.

    Our best hope is that the Trump presidency will be short lived.
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  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLeRoy View Post
    We could be. By the end of the summer, and especially if our trade war with China, Europe, Canada, Mexico, Japan, Australia, and other countries continues to heat up, we very well could be.

    We are already close to correction territory on the Dow, from the high it reached in late January of this year, when it topped out at 26616.71 on January 26 (2018). The Dow closed today at 24117.59, which is 90.61% of its January high. Not quite a 10% drop from the high, but getting close. Another bad few days could certainly put us into correction territory, and then another 10% drop would mark a crash, and mean that we are in a bear market.

    No one who has any sense of stock market history should be surprised by this: Trade wars lead to bear markets.

    That high in the stock market we saw last January? That was PROBABLY the high point for the stock market, for as long as Donald Trump is President. That's my prediction. You've already seen the high point, as far as the stock market is concerned, for the Trump Presidency.
    Changing your own predictions?

    Already?

    No surprise...

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    Praguematic Helena's Avatar
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    Maybe my user title will provide a clue.
    I take it I am the only one who got all excited thinking "wow, there's going to be a market where they sell BEARS!!!!" then googled the expression and felt oddly disappointed.

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    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Miller47 View Post
    Changing your own predictions?

    Already?

    No surprise...
    Huh?!? How is this, in ANY way, a CHANGE in my predictions??

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    Thought Provocateur NightSwimmer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Helena View Post
    I take it I am the only one who got all excited thinking "wow, there's going to be a market where they sell BEARS!!!!" then googled the expression and felt oddly disappointed.

    I wouldn't recommend a pet bear. The litter box maintenance alone would be a nightmare.
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  7. #7
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Helena View Post
    I take it I am the only one who got all excited thinking "wow, there's going to be a market where they sell BEARS!!!!" then googled the expression and felt oddly disappointed.
    Would you WANT to buy a bear, Helena? Would you invite your bear to Thanksgiving dinner, like these people did?

    https://www.bing.com/images/search?q...nner&FORM=IGRE

    A GRIZZLY bear, no less! Freaky!!

  8. #8
    Moderator HayJenn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLeRoy View Post
    We could be. By the end of the summer, and especially if our trade war with China, Europe, Canada, Mexico, Japan, Australia, and other countries continues to heat up, we very well could be.

    We are already close to correction territory on the Dow, from the high it reached in late January of this year, when it topped out at 26616.71 on January 26 (2018). The Dow closed today at 24117.59, which is 90.61% of its January high. Not quite a 10% drop from the high, but getting close. Another bad few days could certainly put us into correction territory, and then another 10% drop would mark a crash, and mean that we are in a bear market.

    No one who has any sense of stock market history should be surprised by this: Trade wars lead to bear markets.

    That high in the stock market we saw last January? That was PROBABLY the high point for the stock market, for as long as Donald Trump is President. That's my prediction. You've already seen the high point, as far as the stock market is concerned, for the Trump Presidency.
    Donald Trump could be running a “Morning in America” midterm campaign strategy, bragging about an economy growing as consistently as it has in over a decade with an unemployment rate tied for the lowest level in nearly half a century.Instead, he’s banking on hard-line trade and immigration policies that could excite his base while undoing economic gains from other Trump policies and nudging the U.S. toward a recession.

    On Monday alone, iconic motorcycle manufacturer Harley-Davidson said it would move some production out of the U.S. in response to Trump's tariff fight with the European Union while the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled over renewed fears from the president's expected new trade restrictions on China. It's all part of a high-risk trade and immigration strategy that has many Republicans, business leaders and even Trump’s former advisers deeply worried about both the politics and the economics of the president’s strategy.

    “The economy is doing exactly what we thought and hoped it would do based on what the administration was able to accomplish in tax reform and the deregulatory agenda,” Gary Cohn, Trump’s former National Economic Council director, said in an interview. “Both were aimed at stimulating the economy through growth and job creation. And that’s happened in a very positive way. Anything else that derails or confuses the economic agenda is confusing for the system.”

    Confusion is certainly coursing through the system now on both trade and immigration. Pete Wiersma, a dairy farmer from Buhl, Idaho, worries about an upcoming labor shortage. “Most dairies have more cows than what the family can take care of themselves," he said in an interview for this week’s edition of the POLITICO Money podcast. "Most of our dairies in Idaho, we are very dependent on foreign-born workers. It's the engine that makes the machine run. We've really noticed a drop-off in applicants.”

    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/...n-fears-650899
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  9. #9
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NightSwimmer View Post
    I wouldn't recommend a pet bear. The litter box maintenance alone would be a nightmare.
    Wouldn't you be able to toilet train a bear? Maybe you'd need to invest in a heavy-duty toilet that could take a 1500 lb bear sitting on it, first...……

    I think they did have to make something like that for William Howard Taft.....

  10. #10
    Praguematic Helena's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLeRoy View Post
    Would you WANT to buy a bear, Helena? Would you invite your bear to Thanksgiving dinner, like these people did?

    https://www.bing.com/images/search?q...nner&FORM=IGRE

    A GRIZZLY bear, no less! Freaky!!
    Oh my God that is the best thing ever. And by "best" I mean clearly insane. But awesome.

    I remember @Dr.Knuckles had some stories about grizzly bears.
    Last edited by Helena; 27th June 2018 at 02:53 PM.
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