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Thread: Trump's birthday gift to America - A booming economy

  1. #11
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
    Are you defending Krugman's lies?

    Krugman isn't moderate or mainstream.
    Would you care to answer my question first, since I DID ask first? You know, politeness and courtesy and all that? I'll be happy to give you my views on Krugman later, if I can just get you to answer MY question first.
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  2. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
    Krugman has lost all credibility, he has been nothing but a partisan hack the last 18 years.
    Certainly Krugman has lost all credibility with right-wing know-nothings, for whom the only marker of credibility is having an appropriately submissive demeanor in the face of the debunked conservative economic liturgy. But, as I mentioned, Krugman is highly respected among fellow economists, often polling at or near the top of living economists, and still being one of the most cited economists despite spending most of his time as an op-ed writer and best-selling popularizer of economic ideas, these days, rather than as an academic researcher:

    https://www.economist.com/free-excha...2/that-ranking

    https://info.umkc.edu/news/economist...-in-the-world/

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...article614479/

    https://thebestschools.org/features/...00-to-present/

    https://ideas.repec.org/top/top.person.all.html

    Take this baldfaced lie from your cite:
    Your failure to understand even the most basic of economic concepts doesn't constitute a lie on someone's else's part. It is deficits, not debt, that act as stimulus.

    GDP growth was 2.6% in Trump's first year
    Incorrect. It was 2.27%:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1
    Last edited by Arkady; 3rd July 2018 at 01:52 PM.
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  3. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Conservatarian View Post
    That is a fucking joke and just goes to prove you don't have a clue what you are talking about.
    I just supported my view with a list of sources showing what other professional economists think of him. As I said, he's highly respected and influential among the professionals. Of course, he debunks right-wing lies, and so he must be labeled "hard left" by the right-wing know-nothings, who are also compelled to use scare quotes when calling him an economist.

    He is wrong about every damn dire prediction he makes becuas like all lefties.
    Actually, one of the reasons he has become such a well-respected economist is how uncannily correct his predictions tend to be. For example, remember when the Austrian-school nincompoops and just about every halfwit who watches Fox News or slums on low-end econoblogs like Zerohedge was insisting that the big deficits we were running under Obama were going to cause run-away inflation and the devaluation of the dollar relative to other currencies? Remember them predicting that "bond vigilantes" were going to punish us for loose monetary policy by driving up interest rates. Krugman ran the numbers and predicted that wouldn't happen. Turns out he was right. The right-wingers never even admitted their error, much less asked themselves why they'd gone wrong. They'd repeatedly predicted sky-high inflation, and we instead saw one of the longest periods of very low inflation in modern history, and yet that didn't result in even a sliver of introspection on their part. There's a reason that there are no respected economists left among the conservative faction: they work from within a cloud of their own political prejudices, and it blinds them completely to the real world.
    Last edited by Arkady; 3rd July 2018 at 01:54 PM.
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  4. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
    Here is what the Atlanta Fed says:
    I like the GDPNow model, but it needs to be taken with a grain of salt, even relatively late in the cycle like now. Although the model is decent this close to the announcement date (I think we're just 25 days out), even their very last prediction, the day before the announcement, is off by an average of 0.6 percentage points, and even more than that if you compare to the final GDP number for the quarter, rather than the official first estimate. Historical data say that they're off by an average of about 1.17 percentage points, in either direction, at this point. As you can see, that gives us quite a wide range of GDP numbers we could reasonably expect for the quarter.

  5. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
    You are thankful for a pack of lies?
    When a conservative is speaking, I mentally translate the word "lies" to "facts that make me feel bad about myself." I find that transforms what they're saying into a more honest rendition of what's happening.
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  6. #16
    Dick with my Buzz...Try DebateDrone's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
    Here is what the Atlanta Fed says:
    Forecast is the KEY word.

    Why not wait until the numbers are official and revised.

    My Thread on GDP is incorrect as the the number was revised down twice.

  7. #17
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Conservatarian View Post
    Happy Fourth of July! After 15 years of lethargic growth, the American economy is finally putting up respectable numbers again.

    Remember hard left New York Times columnist Paul Krugman predicting the apocalypse in the wake of Donald Trump’s election?

    Well, the data are piling in. Corporate taxes have been cut to internationally competitive levels. Middle class folks are paying less, and deregulation well underway. The result? Businesses are more confident and investing again, consumers are confident and spending again, and the U.S economy is poised for its first 3 percent growth year since 2005.

    Over in Europe, where statism and policies more to Mr. Krugman’s liking prevail, the recovery is once again flagging.

    Still, skeptics abound among economists whose analysis is more influenced by political biases rather than allegiance to what economic research has taught us about taxes and investment.

    Many see another recession looming and they argue the economy is only getting a temporary jolt from tax cuts. After that, they pontificate, aggregate demand will tail off.

    Well, nonpartisan econometric studies predating the Trump candidacy indicate the contrary – showing that the 15 percent cut in taxes on business profits enabled by corporate reforms should increase investment between 7.5 percent and 15 percent every year going forward. And in the current environment of deregulation, that higher figure should be the one to more closely apply.

    Look for all of this to continue to boost growth in 2019, given that something bad does not happen.

    Trump's birthday gift to America - A booming economy | Fox News
    Here's one of the interesting things your link points out that you did not mention:

    The dollar has become even more dominant globally, compelling businesses and governments to borrow greenbacks rather than local currency.

    That's true. The dollar HAS been getting stronger. And that may sound like a good thing, certainly. But do you understand that there are trade-offs here? [There almost always ARE, in economics!] There ARE downsides to a stronger dollar.

    Here are two big ones: (1) It makes our exports more expensive, and thus harder for foreigners to buy. Foreigners will be less likely to buy our exports, and that's BEFORE any retaliatory tariffs are added on top, making them even MORE expensive. Demand for American exports might well wither on the vine, if the dollar keeps strengthening. And here's how that can really hurt: We have a LOT of jobs dependent on exports, and those tend to be high-paying jobs. Ouch. In other words, a lot of Americans might lose high-paying jobs over the next few years, simply because foreigners won't be buying the goods those Americans used to produce.

    (2) It makes imports cheaper, which means American consumers are going to buying a LOT more imported goods. Good for WalMart, perhaps, since most of the stuff in WalMart is stamped Made in China, as you know. If we have American workers who make domestic goods that compete with those cheaper imports, not so good. America doesn't make many consumer goods anymore, but we make a LOT of industrial goods, and those jobs might be in jeopardy.

    Here's a consequence of both those things: the trade deficit, the difference between the value of our exports and the value of our imports, will skyrocket. Uh-oh. Donald Trump promised to FIX the trade deficit. When Donald Trump sees the trade deficit skyrocketing, he's gonna get MAD. He's gonna stomp his feet, and INSIST that all these other countries are taking advantage of us, because that's how he views the world. He has an idiotic understanding of how trade works, you see. But it will be HIS policies that are CAUSING the trade deficit to soar into the stratosphere. We are headed, by the way, for our first trillion dollar trade deficit next year, on current trends. Just a FYI.

    A trillion dollar trade deficit. There's another Trump birthday gift to America.
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  8. #18
    Veteran Member Chief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Conservatarian View Post
    Happy Fourth of July! After 15 years of lethargic growth, the American economy is finally putting up respectable numbers again.

    Remember hard left New York Times columnist Paul Krugman predicting the apocalypse in the wake of Donald Trump’s election?

    Well, the data are piling in. Corporate taxes have been cut to internationally competitive levels. Middle class folks are paying less, and deregulation well underway. The result? Businesses are more confident and investing again, consumers are confident and spending again, and the U.S economy is poised for its first 3 percent growth year since 2005.

    Over in Europe, where statism and policies more to Mr. Krugman’s liking prevail, the recovery is once again flagging.

    Still, skeptics abound among economists whose analysis is more influenced by political biases rather than allegiance to what economic research has taught us about taxes and investment.

    Many see another recession looming and they argue the economy is only getting a temporary jolt from tax cuts. After that, they pontificate, aggregate demand will tail off.

    Well, nonpartisan econometric studies predating the Trump candidacy indicate the contrary – showing that the 15 percent cut in taxes on business profits enabled by corporate reforms should increase investment between 7.5 percent and 15 percent every year going forward. And in the current environment of deregulation, that higher figure should be the one to more closely apply.

    Look for all of this to continue to boost growth in 2019, given that something bad does not happen.

    Trump's birthday gift to America - A booming economy | Fox News
    A "booming" economy charged on a credit card is more of a busting economy.

    Let's revisit this once Trump eliminates our debt in 8 years, as he said he would.
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  9. #19
    Moderator HayJenn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chief View Post
    A "booming" economy charged on a credit card is more of a busting economy.

    Let's revisit this once Trump eliminates our debt in 8 years, as he said he would.
    Government debt is on track to hit historically high levels and at its current growth rate will be nearly equal in size to the U.S. economy by 2028, the Congressional Budget Office said Tuesday.

    By the end of this year, the ratio of federal debt to the United States' gross domestic product will reach 78 percent, according to the CBO, the highest ratio since 1950.

    The debt is projected to grow to 96 percent of GDP by 2028 before eventually surpassing the historical high of 106 percent it reached in 1946.

    The CBO projects the Republican tax law passed last fall will add $1.84 trillion to the federal deficit over the next 10 years. Republican leaders have argued the cuts will jump-start the economy, creating enough economic growth to offset much of the additions to the debt. But CBO and other nonpartisan analysts have repeatedly rejected that claim.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.c0dfa7bbf303
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  10. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arkady View Post
    Certainly Krugman has lost all credibility with right-wing know-nothings, for whom the only marker of credibility is having an appropriately submissive demeanor in the face of the debunked conservative economic liturgy. But, as I mentioned, Krugman is highly respected among fellow economists, often polling at or near the top of living economists, and still being one of the most cited economists despite spending most of his time as an op-ed writer and best-selling popularizer of economic ideas, these days, rather than as an academic researcher:

    https://www.economist.com/free-excha...2/that-ranking

    https://info.umkc.edu/news/economist...-in-the-world/

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...article614479/

    https://thebestschools.org/features/...00-to-present/

    https://ideas.repec.org/top/top.person.all.html



    Your failure to understand even the most basic of economic concepts doesn't constitute a lie on someone's else's part. It is deficits, not debt, that act as stimulus.



    Incorrect. It was 2.27%:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1
    It must be tough to be an Obama apologist these days. For eight years you had the go to line that sub 2% is the new normal and considering that Obama did a great job. Donald J Trump is showing how bad Obama was on economic matters.

    You are truly the king of deception and irrelevant cites. For example this is from your first cite demonstrating how great Paul Krugman is thought by real economists:

    OUR list of influential economists has attracted lots of attention, much of it critical. In no particular order, it ignores women; privileges gaffes over real influence; and leaves out the most important economists of all, central-bank governors. Some of the criticism is constructive, but much of it misunderstands how and why it was put together. This is not a ranking of the most influential economists of 2014, but a list of those economists who got most attention in the last quarter of 2014. It is not an annual event, but an experiment.
    It wasn't a survey, just a media search. How could you claim that Krugman is mainstream or moderate when the title of his blog is Conscience of a Liberal?
    The federal budget deficit doesn't properly account for debt, it treats debt as income. In 2016 the Federal government had to borrow $1.4 trillion to cover its spending.

    According to your FRED cite, real GDP was 16851420 at the beginning of 2017 and 17286497, that is a 2.58% increase.


    Totally dishonest.
    Last edited by Libertine; 3rd July 2018 at 04:12 PM.

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