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Thread: Trump's birthday gift to America - A booming economy

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    Trump's birthday gift to America - A booming economy

    Happy Fourth of July! After 15 years of lethargic growth, the American economy is finally putting up respectable numbers again.

    Remember hard left New York Times columnist Paul Krugman predicting the apocalypse in the wake of Donald Trump’s election?

    Well, the data are piling in. Corporate taxes have been cut to internationally competitive levels. Middle class folks are paying less, and deregulation well underway. The result? Businesses are more confident and investing again, consumers are confident and spending again, and the U.S economy is poised for its first 3 percent growth year since 2005.

    Over in Europe, where statism and policies more to Mr. Krugman’s liking prevail, the recovery is once again flagging.

    Still, skeptics abound among economists whose analysis is more influenced by political biases rather than allegiance to what economic research has taught us about taxes and investment.

    Many see another recession looming and they argue the economy is only getting a temporary jolt from tax cuts. After that, they pontificate, aggregate demand will tail off.

    Well, nonpartisan econometric studies predating the Trump candidacy indicate the contrary – showing that the 15 percent cut in taxes on business profits enabled by corporate reforms should increase investment between 7.5 percent and 15 percent every year going forward. And in the current environment of deregulation, that higher figure should be the one to more closely apply.

    Look for all of this to continue to boost growth in 2019, given that something bad does not happen.

    Trump's birthday gift to America - A booming economy | Fox News

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    Quote Originally Posted by Conservatarian View Post
    Happy Fourth of July! After 15 years of lethargic growth, the American economy is finally putting up respectable numbers again.
    Right-wing posts so often take the form of a Gish Gallop, where the intent it to numb the reader with the sheer rapidity of lies, discouraging people from debunking each in turn. But I'm not discouraged.

    First, we didn't have 15 years of growth, lethargic or otherwise. Ten years ago, our economy was in utter free-fall. Eight years of Bush's leadership had brought the nation to the second of his two recessions -- this one much worse than the first. It was the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression.

    Second, if the growth throughout the subsequent period was "lethargic," then the growth now would be, too. We had quarterly growth as high as 5.2% during the Obama years, which is literally twice as fast as last quarter. We also had annual GDP growth as high as 2.9%, compared to 2.3% in Trump's first year.

    Remember hard left New York Times columnist Paul Krugman predicting the apocalypse in the wake of Donald Trump’s election?
    First, Krugman isn't "hard left." He's a fairly mainstream economist -- and the winner of the Nobel Prize for economics. In fact, he's so mainstream that he has polled as the most influential and respected living economist among other economists.

    Second, he didn't predict apocalypse in the short or medium term. He did predict a stock decline that didn't end up happening (a hot-take election night prediction that he repudiated almost immediately). Curious about his actual take on how things would go? Here:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/14/o...mp-coming.html

    "...Trumpism will have dire effects, but they will take time to become manifest. In fact, don’t be surprised if economic growth actually accelerates for a couple of years."

    See your error?

    Corporate taxes have been cut to internationally competitive levels.
    Corporate taxes were already at internationally competitive levels. Although the corporatists did their best to convince the dummies otherwise, by focusing on marginal corporate rates, rather than effective rates, the truth is our corporations were taxed a little less, on average, than the OECD trade-weighted average. Some more sophisticated propagandists try to obscure that by pointing to arithmetic averages of OECD nations (allowing a few tiny tax havens to draw the average down), but when you do a more honest average, you find that the US already had a slight edge over the OECD as a whole.

    deregulation well underway
    Tariffs are a form of regulation, and they are rising.

    the U.S economy is poised for its first 3 percent growth year since 2005.
    Is it? I suppose it's possible. Obama left Trump some strong fundamentals, and with the further advantage of MASSIVE deficit increases, and the stimulus they bring, we might get a debt-financed boost to 3%. Or maybe not. First quarter GDP was 2%, so we'll have to average over 3.3% for the balance of the year to hit 3%.

    Over in Europe, where statism and policies more to Mr. Krugman’s liking prevail, the recovery is once again flagging.
    If you've read Krugman, you know he's been relentlessly negative about European economic policy ever since the turn to austerity in 2010. Europe came under the influence of Austrian-school-style know-nothings, who imagined that if they were only stingy enough, the confidence fairies would come and use their magic to grow the economy. Krugman predicted that this would result in poor growth in Europe.

    Well, nonpartisan econometric studies predating the Trump candidacy indicate the contrary – showing that the 15 percent cut in taxes on business profits enabled by corporate reforms should increase investment between 7.5 percent and 15 percent every year going forward.
    Which nonpartisan econometric studies are you referring to?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Arkady View Post
    Right-wing posts so often take the form of a Gish Gallop, where the intent it to numb the reader with the sheer rapidity of lies, discouraging people from debunking each in turn. But I'm not discouraged.

    First, we didn't have 15 years of growth, lethargic or otherwise. Ten years ago, our economy was in utter free-fall. Eight years of Bush's leadership had brought the nation to the second of his two recessions -- this one much worse than the first. It was the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression.

    Second, if the growth throughout the subsequent period was "lethargic," then the growth now would be, too. We had quarterly growth as high as 5.2% during the Obama years, which is literally twice as fast as last quarter. We also had annual GDP growth as high as 2.9%, compared to 2.3% in Trump's first year.



    First, Krugman isn't "hard left." He's a fairly mainstream economist -- and the winner of the Nobel Prize for economics. In fact, he's so mainstream that he has polled as the most influential and respected living economist among other economists.

    Second, he didn't predict apocalypse in the short or medium term. He did predict a stock decline that didn't end up happening (a hot-take election night prediction that he repudiated almost immediately). Curious about his actual take on how things would go? Here:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/14/o...mp-coming.html

    "...Trumpism will have dire effects, but they will take time to become manifest. In fact, don’t be surprised if economic growth actually accelerates for a couple of years."

    See your error?



    Corporate taxes were already at internationally competitive levels. Although the corporatists did their best to convince the dummies otherwise, by focusing on marginal corporate rates, rather than effective rates, the truth is our corporations were taxed a little less, on average, than the OECD trade-weighted average. Some more sophisticated propagandists try to obscure that by pointing to arithmetic averages of OECD nations (allowing a few tiny tax havens to draw the average down), but when you do a more honest average, you find that the US already had a slight edge over the OECD as a whole.



    Tariffs are a form of regulation, and they are rising.



    Is it? I suppose it's possible. Obama left Trump some strong fundamentals, and with the further advantage of MASSIVE deficit increases, and the stimulus they bring, we might get a debt-financed boost to 3%. Or maybe not. First quarter GDP was 2%, so we'll have to average over 3.3% for the balance of the year to hit 3%.



    If you've read Krugman, you know he's been relentlessly negative about European economic policy ever since the turn to austerity in 2010. Europe came under the influence of Austrian-school-style know-nothings, who imagined that if they were only stingy enough, the confidence fairies would come and use their magic to grow the economy. Krugman predicted that this would result in poor growth in Europe.



    Which nonpartisan econometric studies are you referring to?
    Krugman has lost all credibility, he has been nothing but a partisan hack the last 18 years.

    Take this baldfaced lie from your cite:

    But those tax cuts would add $4.5 trillion to U.S. debt over the next decade — about five times as much as the stimulus of the early Obama years.
    Obama added $4.5 trillion to the national debt by December 2011, less than three years. On top of that $4.5 trillion in fiscal stimulus the Obamaconomy received over $5 trillion in monetary stimulus from the Fed.

    https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/debt/current


    Second, if the growth throughout the subsequent period was "lethargic," then the growth now would be, too. We had quarterly growth as high as 5.2% during the Obama years, which is literally twice as fast as last quarter. We also had annual GDP growth as high as 2.9%, compared to 2.3% in Trump's first year.
    GDP growth was 2.6% in Trump's first year, up 73% from the 1.5% we saw in the Obamaconomy in 2016.

    1.5% growth while adding $1.4 trillion to the debt in 2016, pathetic.

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    First, Krugman isn't "hard left." He's a fairly mainstream economist --
    That is a fucking joke and just goes to prove you don't have a clue what you are talking about. No one can deny Krugman isn't a hard left "economist" I put "economist" in parentheses because he let his politics cloud his thinking years ago. He is wrong about every damn dire prediction he makes becuas like all lefties. he makes them based on emotion.

    Krugman isn't a hard letie....for fucks sakes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Arkady View Post
    Right-wing posts so often take the form of a Gish Gallop, where the intent it to numb the reader with the sheer rapidity of lies, discouraging people from debunking each in turn. But I'm not discouraged.

    First, we didn't have 15 years of growth, lethargic or otherwise. Ten years ago, our economy was in utter free-fall. Eight years of Bush's leadership had brought the nation to the second of his two recessions -- this one much worse than the first. It was the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression.

    Second, if the growth throughout the subsequent period was "lethargic," then the growth now would be, too. We had quarterly growth as high as 5.2% during the Obama years, which is literally twice as fast as last quarter. We also had annual GDP growth as high as 2.9%, compared to 2.3% in Trump's first year.



    First, Krugman isn't "hard left." He's a fairly mainstream economist -- and the winner of the Nobel Prize for economics. In fact, he's so mainstream that he has polled as the most influential and respected living economist among other economists.

    Second, he didn't predict apocalypse in the short or medium term. He did predict a stock decline that didn't end up happening (a hot-take election night prediction that he repudiated almost immediately). Curious about his actual take on how things would go? Here:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/14/o...mp-coming.html

    "...Trumpism will have dire effects, but they will take time to become manifest. In fact, don’t be surprised if economic growth actually accelerates for a couple of years."

    See your error?



    Corporate taxes were already at internationally competitive levels. Although the corporatists did their best to convince the dummies otherwise, by focusing on marginal corporate rates, rather than effective rates, the truth is our corporations were taxed a little less, on average, than the OECD trade-weighted average. Some more sophisticated propagandists try to obscure that by pointing to arithmetic averages of OECD nations (allowing a few tiny tax havens to draw the average down), but when you do a more honest average, you find that the US already had a slight edge over the OECD as a whole.



    Tariffs are a form of regulation, and they are rising.



    Is it? I suppose it's possible. Obama left Trump some strong fundamentals, and with the further advantage of MASSIVE deficit increases, and the stimulus they bring, we might get a debt-financed boost to 3%. Or maybe not. First quarter GDP was 2%, so we'll have to average over 3.3% for the balance of the year to hit 3%.



    If you've read Krugman, you know he's been relentlessly negative about European economic policy ever since the turn to austerity in 2010. Europe came under the influence of Austrian-school-style know-nothings, who imagined that if they were only stingy enough, the confidence fairies would come and use their magic to grow the economy. Krugman predicted that this would result in poor growth in Europe.



    Which nonpartisan econometric studies are you referring to?
    The board won't let me thank you.

    Thank you.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BDBoop View Post
    The board won't let me thank you.

    Thank you.
    You are thankful for a pack of lies?

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    America has the Happiest economy...ever!

    If this "report on the ecomomy" was produced by Fox Business, it would have been the worst economic report on the economy by a Business outlet ever.

    This "business" report lists no economic indicators to back their claim of a 'booming" economy.


    They could have used any feel-good word to describe the economy.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DebateDrone View Post
    If this "report on the ecomomy" was produced by Fox Business, it would have been the worst economic report on the economy by a Business outlet ever.

    This "business" report lists no economic indicators to back their claim of a 'booming" economy.


    They could have used any feel-good word to describe the economy.
    Here is what the Atlanta Fed says:

    Latest forecast: 4.1 percent — July 2, 2018

    The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 4.1 percent on July 2, up from 3.8 percent on June 29.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
    You are thankful for a pack of lies?
    Oh? Are YOU claiming, then, Libertine, that we have had "15 years of lethargic growth"?

    Now THAT was a fucking lie. ONLY a person who has made the conscious decision to become a complete historical revisionist and simply IGNORE the Great Recession, the WORST economic downturn since the Great Depression----in other words, the 2nd-worst economic downturn of the LAST CENTURY-----would write such a deliberate lie.

    Let's just start with that lie, the one Fox News columnist Peter Morici decided to BEGIN his little propaganda essay with. Do you DEFEND it?
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLeRoy View Post
    Oh? Are YOU claiming, then, Libertine, that we have had "15 years of lethargic growth"?

    Now THAT was a fucking lie. ONLY a person who has made the conscious decision to become a complete historical revisionist and simply IGNORE the Great Recession, the WORST economic downturn since the Great Depression----in other words, the 2nd-worst economic downturn of the LAST CENTURY-----would write such a deliberate lie.

    Let's just start with that lie, the one Fox News columnist Peter Morici decided to BEGIN his little propaganda essay with. Do you DEFEND it?
    Are you defending Krugman's lies?

    Krugman isn't moderate or mainstream.

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