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Thread: It Is Looking More And More Like 1929, Folks

  1. #21
    Veteran Member Puzzling Evidence's Avatar
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    I don't think that there is enough gunpowder in the keg to send us into a rescission, however I do believe that the economy could very easily stall. Look what happened in 2000 when the election was too close to call -- uncertainty as too who was going to be calling the shots. It created a noticeable slump.

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    Thought Provocateur NightSwimmer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Puzzling Evidence View Post
    I don't think that there is enough gunpowder in the keg to send us into a rescission, however I do believe that the economy could very easily stall. Look what happened in 2000 when the election was too close to call -- uncertainty as too who was going to be calling the shots. It created a noticeable slump.

    Yes. A somewhat noticeable slump. It took several years though, for the Bush economic policies to take us to the brink of a second Great Depression.
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    Veteran Member Puzzling Evidence's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NightSwimmer View Post
    Yes. A somewhat noticeable slump. It took several years though, for the Bush economic policies to take us to the brink of a second Great Depression.
    That is not what brought us to the housing bubble and subsequent collapse. It started with bank lobbyist spending record amounts of money to convince congress that financial institutions should have regulations relaxed. House republicans and bill Clinton got the ball rolling, not George W Bush.

  4. #24
    Thought Provocateur NightSwimmer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Puzzling Evidence View Post
    That is not what brought us to the housing bubble and subsequent collapse. It started with bank lobbyist spending record amounts of money to convince congress that financial institutions should have regulations relaxed. House republicans and bill Clinton got the ball rolling, not George W Bush.

    Yes. There was nothing that Bush could do. He might have been the President, but he was certainly no Bill Clinton.

  5. #25
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Puzzling Evidence View Post
    That is not what brought us to the housing bubble and subsequent collapse. It started with bank lobbyist spending record amounts of money to convince congress that financial institutions should have regulations relaxed. House republicans and bill Clinton got the ball rolling, not George W Bush.
    George W. Bush bears a LARGE dose of responsibility for the housing bubble, as I explained earlier in this thread. Have you utterly forgotten his mantra, 'the Ownership Society'? Have you forgotten how HARD he pushed for home ownership, including by minorities? Have you forgotten how he pushed for people to be able to buy homes, even with ZERO money down? Have you forgotten how he repeatedly BRAGGED about the 'growing rate of home ownership in America'?

    It seems like you've forgotten a LOT of things about the Bush era, P.E.
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  6. #26
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Conservatarian View Post
    Your predictions are as hilarious as gasbag Krugmans.

    I would have better success than you with the use of a few chicken bones and a witch doctor...lol
    MY predictions? My predictions have been eerily accurate. I warned people about the tech stock bubble in the late 1990's, although not as loudly as I should have, because I was a little bit uncertain myself about what was going on back then. I certainly warned people that Bush's tax cuts would push America right back into an era of large budget deficits, which he PROMISED America would not happen, but did. All through the decade of the 2000's, certainly starting in about 2002, I was one of the lonely voices warning about the Great American Housing Bubble, and how it was a terrible misallocation of resources, building all those McMansions that few could really afford, and that the bubble would eventually and inevitably implode, causing profound damage and a terrible recession when it did. There were only about a dozen economists in all of America who were making such warnings, by the way. For all of our efforts, we were called Chicken Littles, doom-and-gloomers. My favorite was when Arnold Schwarzenegger called us all 'girlie-man economists'. That was funny! When the bubble finally did burst, when house prices started sliding, in early 2007, I knew the Great Recession was coming, and started warning people about that.

    And I warned people that it would be the worst recession since the Great Depression, and that it would take the better part of a decade to recover from it. It did. Ten years on, we are ONLY NOW at a point where we can say that maybe we have fully recovered from the effects of the massive financial/banking/credit crisis that accompanied the Great Recession.

    In a way, my predictions have been more spot-on than Krugman's, because on Election Night 2016, Paul Krugman got a bit histrionic, and was warning that the stock market would collapse, and not recover as long as Trump was in office. In contrast, you could dig up my posts here on PH from the morning after Election Night, and you would find that I was predicting that the stock market would actually LOVE Trump's surprise election victory, and that we would, in fact, see a nice little Trump boomlet for a few years, because the markets DO love talk of big tax cuts and trillion-dollar infrastructure programs. (Whatever happened to that trillion dollar infrastructure program, by the way?) The markets think in the short term; only later do they begin to grasp the long-term implications of economic policies. So, yes, we have had our nice little Trump boomlet, and perhaps it MIGHT even run for another year yet.

    Contrast my success record of predictions with the woefully STUPID predictions that the President's Chief Economic Adviser Lawrence (Larry) Kudlow has made! My GOD! That man is a TERRIBLE economic forecaster! In 1993, he predicted that Clinton's modest tax increase on the rich would trigger a terrible economic downturn. Whereas, in fact, it helped to trigger the longest economic expansion in American history. In late 2007, just as the Great Recession was beginning, Mr. Kudlow said that there was no recession, wasn't going to BE any recession, and that President Bush's economic 'plan' was working 'splendidly'. Yikes!
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    Veteran Member Puzzling Evidence's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NightSwimmer View Post
    Yes. There was nothing that Bush could do. He might have been the President, but he was certainly no Bill Clinton.
    Well, that's pretty absurd. Bill Clinton is the POTUS who signed off on it. Apparently he thought it was a good idea, but it was Bush's fault?

    Bush's response was a bi-partisan one. He helped by signing off on the bailouts and if he had remained in office, he would certainly have signed off on the stimulus. What was Bush supposed to do? Even Alan Greenspan did not warn us.
    Last edited by Puzzling Evidence; 4th July 2018 at 01:54 PM.

  8. #28
    Veteran Member Puzzling Evidence's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLeRoy View Post
    George W. Bush bears a LARGE dose of responsibility for the housing bubble, as I explained earlier in this thread. Have you utterly forgotten his mantra, 'the Ownership Society'? Have you forgotten how HARD he pushed for home ownership, including by minorities? Have you forgotten how he pushed for people to be able to buy homes, even with ZERO money down? Have you forgotten how he repeatedly BRAGGED about the 'growing rate of home ownership in America'?

    It seems like you've forgotten a LOT of things about the Bush era, P.E.
    HOUSE republicans pushed the bill, Clinton signed it. Apparently, lots of democrats forgot about that.

  9. #29
    Established Member Idiocracat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Conservatarian View Post
    Your predictions are as hilarious as gasbag Krugmans.

    I would have better success than you with the use of a few chicken bones and a witch doctor...lol
    Based on normal Republican algorithms, we're fucked.
    But the next Dem controlled presidency will recover it.

    Want A Better Economy? History Says Vote Democrat! -Forbes

  10. #30
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Puzzling Evidence View Post
    Well, that's pretty absurd. Bill Clinton is the POTUS who signed off on it. Apparently he thought it was a good idea, but it was Bush's fault?

    Bush's response was a bi-partisan one. He helped by signing off on the bailouts and if he had remained in office, he would certainly have signed off on the stimulus. What was Bush supposed to do? Even Alan Greenspan did not warn us.
    Alan Greenspam-----I often spell his last name incorrectly, accidentally on purpose-----was himself one of the major architects of the Great American Housing Bubble of the 2000's. It was his overly-expansionary monetary policy following the collapse of the dotcom bubble that helped to fuel the bubble in the first place. Perhaps even worse, Mr. Greenspam at one point was actually URGING Americans to take out the very dangerous ARM loans that were destined to blow up on so many millions of Americans just a few years down the road. [ARM = Adjustable Rate Mortgage.] Mr. Greenspam incorrectly believed that the banking industry could 'self-regulate'. The banking industry can NEVER 'self-regulate'. Uniquely among industries, the banking industry tends to attract charlatans and crooks, because that's where the money is, as Arkansas bank robber Willie Sutton famously said. Greenspam later had to famously admit that his entire PHILOSPHY of regulation was simply wildly WRONG.

    Probably no one has seen his reputation more tarnished from the housing bubble and Great Recession than Alan Greenspam. At one time, people called him 'The Maestro', and said he was the greatest Central Banker in the history of Central Banking. Today, his reputation is that of a Serial Bubble Blower. Ouch.
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