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Thread: Trump's Policies Are Undermining Consumer Confidence

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    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Trump's Policies Are Undermining Consumer Confidence

    The latest University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Survey was out this morning, and it has fallen to a six-month low, with many of the respondents citing fears over Donald Trump's tariffs and trade wars:

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/co...rns-2018-07-13

    The June figure was 97.1, and here is the more interesting factoid, as far as I'm concerned:

    Consumer Confidence has fallen since Mr. Trump took office. In January of 2017, when Mr. Trump was inaugurated, the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence number was at 98.5.

    Let me repeat that, so that it sinks in:

    Consumer Confidence in the American economy has FALLEN since Donald Trump took office.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT/
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    "Consumer Confidence" doesn't put money in my IRA.

    The stock markets do.

    OK, I set it up, now come the "gloom and doom" predictions...

    Every.

    Single.

    Time...

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    Veteran Member bajisima's Avatar
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    Check this out.

    While most people focus on his approval rating, the best metric for determining Trump's odds of winning a second term may come from looking at consumer confidence in the economy. As you can see in the charts below, when consumer confidence dipped during the third quarter of the third year of a president's first term, the president lost his re-election bid. If consumer confidence rose during the same period, the president was re-elected.

    There's a lot of other issues hanging over Trump, so this metric may not hold up. But, if you're looking for a different metric to gauge Trump's future, this might be the one to watch.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/10/cons...-holds-up.html
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLeRoy View Post
    The latest University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Survey was out this morning, and it has fallen to a six-month low, with many of the respondents citing fears over Donald Trump's tariffs and trade wars:

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/co...rns-2018-07-13

    The June figure was 97.1, and here is the more interesting factoid, as far as I'm concerned:

    Consumer Confidence has fallen since Mr. Trump took office. In January of 2017, when Mr. Trump was inaugurated, the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence number was at 98.5.

    Let me repeat that, so that it sinks in:

    Consumer Confidence in the American economy has FALLEN since Donald Trump took office.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT/
    Maybe this has something to do with Consumer Confidence?

    WASHINGTON—U. S. inflation hit its highest rate in more than six years, with consumer prices eating away at modest wage gains by American workers and underscoring questions about how much they are benefiting from an economy that by many other measures is booming.

    The consumer-price index, which gauges what Americans pay for everything from veterinarian services to baby clothes, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in June from the prior month, the Labor Department said Thursday. Excluding volatile food and energy components, so-called core prices increased 0.2%. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected a 0.2% uptick from May for both the overall index and core inflation.

    Prices rose 2.9% in June from a year earlier, the fastest pace since February 2012. Core inflation ticked up to 2.3% over the past 12 months, the highest rate since January 2017.

    In June, for a second month in a row, annual inflation fully offset average hourly wage growth over the previous year. That left workers’ real hourly earnings flat over the 12-month period despite falling unemployment and a strong economy even as workers made up for higher prices by clocking slightly more hours a week in June.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-con...d=hp_lead_pos6

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    Veteran Member bajisima's Avatar
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    CNBC has been discussing inflation rising and how if the fed still raises rates later this year, its sabotage..

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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLeRoy View Post
    The latest University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Survey was out this morning, and it has fallen to a six-month low, with many of the respondents citing fears over Donald Trump's tariffs and trade wars:

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/co...rns-2018-07-13

    The June figure was 97.1, and here is the more interesting factoid, as far as I'm concerned:

    Consumer Confidence has fallen since Mr. Trump took office. In January of 2017, when Mr. Trump was inaugurated, the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence number was at 98.5.

    Let me repeat that, so that it sinks in:

    Consumer Confidence in the American economy has FALLEN since Donald Trump took office.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT/
    It was 87 on election day, Trump's upset victory sent it skyrocketing. CC had been in decline since its peak in Jan 2015 in the Obamaconomy.

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    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
    It was 87 on election day, Trump's upset victory sent it skyrocketing. CC had been in decline since its peak in Jan 2015 in the Obamaconomy.
    DO let me know if you are actually disputing the OP, Libertine. You know, the FACT that Consumer Confidence has FALLEN since Mr. Trump actually TOOK OFFICE.

    Consumer confidence rose after Trump's surprise election, but we now know that it surged ONLY among his supporters. We also know that the American public has NOW had very nearly a year-and-a-half to actually gauge the IMPACT of his POLICIES, and they do not LIKE what they are seeing. Which is WHY Consumer Confidence has actually FALLEN since he TOOK OFFICE. DUH! DUH! DUH!!!
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLeRoy View Post
    DO let me know if you are actually disputing the OP, Libertine. You know, the FACT that Consumer Confidence has FALLEN since Mr. Trump actually TOOK OFFICE.

    Consumer confidence rose after Trump's surprise election, but we now know that it surged ONLY among his supporters. We also know that the American public has NOW had very nearly a year-and-a-half to actually gauge the IMPACT of his POLICIES, and they do not LIKE what they are seeing. Which is WHY Consumer Confidence has actually FALLEN since he TOOK OFFICE. DUH! DUH! DUH!!!
    "Only among his supporters"......and who might that be ? ...the majority of the American people perhaps.

    No, I don't watch MSM polls. Why would I ?...when they said Hillary was going to win in 2016.

    When Trump's reign is over, 2020 or 2024, we will THEN be able to look back from hindsight, with a clear focus of what he accomplished (although many accomplishment are already clear)
    Last edited by rwb72; 14th July 2018 at 08:20 PM.

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    Under Protest excalibur's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLeRoy View Post
    DO let me know if you are actually disputing the OP, Libertine. You know, the FACT that Consumer Confidence has FALLEN since Mr. Trump actually TOOK OFFICE.

    Consumer confidence rose after Trump's surprise election, but we now know that it surged ONLY among his supporters. We also know that the American public has NOW had very nearly a year-and-a-half to actually gauge the IMPACT of his POLICIES, and they do not LIKE what they are seeing. Which is WHY Consumer Confidence has actually FALLEN since he TOOK OFFICE. DUH! DUH! DUH!!!

    As usual you are so untruthful, and full of hate as well.


    WASHINGTON — American consumers are the most confident they’ve been in nearly 17 years.

    The Conference Board says its consumer confidence index hit 125.9 in October, up from a revised 120.6 in September and the highest reading since December 2000.
    Under Trump consumer confidence rises to 17-year high ? GOPUSA

    That was October 2017, so your post is false.

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    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by excalibur View Post
    As usual you are so untruthful, and full of hate as well.



    Under Trump consumer confidence rises to 17-year high ? GOPUSA

    That was October 2017, so your post is false.
    You are talking about a DIFFERENT measure of consumer confidence, the Conference Board survey of consumer confidence. I am talking about the University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Confidence. Guess which one is the one that is more widely cited and respected?

    That's right, the one that I am citing. The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Survey, which has been taken since very shortly after World War II, every month, and which markets look forward to hearing EVERY month. The Conference Board survey, the one you are talking about, only began in the late 1960's, and is not nearly as widely followed.

    Try again.
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