https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...vote-6185.html

It's time for many of you to start paying attention to how these polls are used to create the news rather than inform the news. All year there has been talk about a blue wave. The midterms were and of course ARE going to be catastrophic. Control of everything will be lost by the Republicans. Generic poll shows Democrats +13 in December of last year.

Then something curious happens.....

As we get closer to.......actual election dates, in this case many primaries for states, the polls start creeping in a different direction until by the date of the actual primaries the generic polling shows Democrats +3.2%. Immediately after this the various agencies drop a new round of polls and IMMEDIATELY the generic jumps to +7.6% a jump of nearly 4 points in less than a week during no newsworthy events.

I understand for us political wonks there was lots of news. G7, Ivanka posted on Instagram, Eyebrows fell off, insults were traded about trade, peace was made or not made, etc. Wonks don't change their mind based off these events.

So has anything really driven a 4 point jump, something to cause 4 Republican or Independent voters to suddenly jump to the Democrats?

I'd say absolutely not. I've seen this trend dozens of times now. There are times of the year when the news agencies try to push their agenda rather than report the news. Those slow news days in August will be the next one and it will try to set up narratives to drive the fall elections.

For a reminder of how 2016 went you can look here.


Was Clinton really ever up 7 points in late October with certain media polls pushing that lead out to double digits of 10-12%? No. As you can see as the actual election dates get close the polls have to scramble and save their credibility. They can't push, they need to reflect and possibly predict the actual election result.

So use this information two ways. One Republicans, it is seldom as bad as the media reports but with 90+% negative Trump coverage, you already knew that. Democrats though... you have to presume someone is blowing up and exaggerating your outcomes early in the process. Do this for your own mental health. It isn't good to live in a world where everything you wanted is a forgone conclusion and is snatched away at the last moment. It isn't snatched away. The conclusion was a lie. Understand the bias so you aren't hurt by it even when it is in your favor.

We are heading into the dog days of summer. I fully expect the generic polling to near double digits positive for Democrats by late August in the absence of real news to drive any voter sentiment and the biased media will be drumming up propaganda for their perspectives. The midterms are going to be catastrophic. Trump is going to be impeached. The world is going to be saved. Everything will be as it was and should be.......

Then in late September, perhaps even mid-October....something curious will happen. The polls will start moving.... toward the actual numbers and don't be shocked when they get there right around the first week of November. Republicans will probably gain a Senate seat. Lose a handful of House seats.

Don't be shocked when all the "news" that has come out of the summer and that all the low information voters should know about because MSNBC and CNN have been telling you about it since August seems not to change a single mind. Don't tear your hair out or lose your mind when you have to question how Trump or Republicans are GAINING support when Ivanka posted a picture of herself with her kid or Trump tweeted something or some late night host or comedian eviscerated, lambasted or destroyed Trump with their jokes in a way that should change everyone's mind forever!

Do it for your sanity. Don't buy the lie now and the truth won't be so hard to take later. Nothing about the news or polls had Democrats up double digits earlier this year. Nothing has moved them plus four points immediately after the midterms.

Of course nothing in life is a foregone conclusion but when legitimate things move voters we all know it. We know when planes fly into buildings. We know when hurricanes sink major cities. We know the major events and that is what should swing 5-10% of voters, something major. Not tweets, not gaffes, not instagram photos, not taco bowls. Clearly these things can happen. However in the absence of them the patterns are pretty set. We can follow the voters, the candidates and the money. The bouncing polls and endless hours of cable news stories about minutia aren't going to change that.

Thoughts....