View Poll Results: What do you expect to happen with N. Korea?

Voters
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  • Nothing new; talks will go on indefinitely

    3 33.33%
  • Trump will try to act as if an effective deal exists

    4 44.44%
  • Trump will try to punish North Korean perfidy

    0 0%
  • Trump will own up to failure and try to start over

    0 0%
  • Everything is fine, fake news, Trump/Kim gay marriage imminent

    2 22.22%
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Thread: The next move on North Korea

  1. #1
    Civis americanus borealis Singularity's Avatar
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    The next move on North Korea

    Things certainly seem to be falling apart. Kim has been caught making clear preparations to cheat on any commitments, none of which of course have been actually made. Amid this, international observers are virtually unanimous in believing a concrete deal between the U.S. and North Korea alone is unrealistic and unsustainable if it actually happens — at a minimum, China must commit to full participation in active monitoring and enforcement provisions.

    So where do we go from here?
    Thanks from BigBob and BigLeRoy

  2. #2
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    Onward with negotiations.

    No one expected this to be quick or easy.

    Some people are doing their "happy dance" already and declaring defeat.

    Too early for that...

  3. #3
    Veteran Member bonehead's Avatar
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    we go back to where we started. nothing has changed - and the situation will continue as past administrations have found out.
    Thanks from EnigmaO01 and BigBob

  4. #4
    RNG
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    A friend of mine suggested I start following Vipin Narang on twitter. He is an Associate Professor of Political Science at MIT and a member of MIT's Security Studies Program studying mainly N Korea. So far I am impressed.

    Here is a couple of tweets he retweeted.

    Thanks from BigLeRoy, galatin, BigBob and 1 others

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by RNG View Post
    A friend of mine suggested I start following Vipin Narang on twitter. He is an Associate Professor of Political Science at MIT and a member of MIT's Security Studies Program studying mainly N Korea. So far I am impressed.

    Here is a couple of tweets he retweeted.

    Another Trump Hater?

    Sure, why not.

    But, talking to each other is better than not talking almost every time.

    Keep negotiating as long as possible...

  6. #6
    New Member BigBob's Avatar
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    The next thing the USA should do is ignore NK. We need attention here in the USA for our myriad problems.
    Thanks from bonehead

  7. #7
    Spock of Vulcan Ian Jeffrey's Avatar
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    Thanks from Havelock, EnigmaO01, BigBob and 2 others

  8. #8
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RNG View Post
    A friend of mine suggested I start following Vipin Narang on twitter. He is an Associate Professor of Political Science at MIT and a member of MIT's Security Studies Program studying mainly N Korea. So far I am impressed.

    Here is a couple of tweets he retweeted.

    My favorite source of information on geopolitics and the world economy, the British weekly The Economist, summed it up with a pithy three word headline:


    Kim Jong Won

  9. #9
    Radical Centrist BigLeRoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bonehead View Post
    we go back to where we started. nothing has changed - and the situation will continue as past administrations have found out.
    It is NOT true that "nothing has changed"!! The sanctions regime that North Korea was under has been gravely weakened. China has already started trading to a much larger extent with North Korea. And they are MOST UNLIKELY to go back to obeying any kind of strict sanctions regime against their client state again. Only if Kim Jong Un did something particularly stupid, like launch another missile directly at Guam, would we be able to cajole the Chinese back into enforcing sanctions again. And Kim is not about to do that. As Trump himself said, Kim "is one smart cookie". He scored a MAJOR propaganda victory against the United States by simply getting Trump to agree to meet, and then Trump gave him the frosting on the cake by stupidly saluting a North Korean general and unilaterally canceling the joint exercises with the South Korean military.

    Two years ago, China was VERY upset with Kim Jong Un, and ready to pursue closer relations with America. Now, with the Chinese pissed at us over the tariffs and trade war that Trump is waging on them, and over his DEMAND that they stop importing Iranian oil, are HARDLY inclined to cooperate with him on North Korea. Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un are now ALLIES again. Trump has done that.

    He has TOTALLY and COMPLETELY mismanaged the North Korea situation. He has taken a bad situation, and he has made it WORSE.

  10. #10
    Junior Member Havelock's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLeRoy View Post
    It is NOT true that "nothing has changed"!! The sanctions regime that North Korea was under has been gravely weakened. China has already started trading to a much larger extent with North Korea. And they are MOST UNLIKELY to go back to obeying any kind of strict sanctions regime against their client state again. Only if Kim Jong Un did something particularly stupid, like launch another missile directly at Guam, would we be able to cajole the Chinese back into enforcing sanctions again. And Kim is not about to do that. As Trump himself said, Kim "is one smart cookie". He scored a MAJOR propaganda victory against the United States by simply getting Trump to agree to meet, and then Trump gave him the frosting on the cake by stupidly saluting a North Korean general and unilaterally canceling the joint exercises with the South Korean military.

    Two years ago, China was VERY upset with Kim Jong Un, and ready to pursue closer relations with America. Now, with the Chinese pissed at us over the tariffs and trade war that Trump is waging on them, and over his DEMAND that they stop importing Iranian oil, are HARDLY inclined to cooperate with him on North Korea. Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un are now ALLIES again. Trump has done that.

    He has TOTALLY and COMPLETELY mismanaged the North Korea situation. He has taken a bad situation, and he has made it WORSE.
    Yep, most likely you're right. He has made a bad situation worse. Par for the course, I expect.

    So, can I just say, the massive turnaround in Republican talking points relative to North Korea is nothing short of amazing. I mean, let's look at the timeline:

    '90s -- Clinton administration negotiates a deal to halt North Korean enrichment of weapons' grade nuclear material. Republican response: "OMG, you're taking the word of a totally untrustworthy, evil, totalitarian regime. So naive. So reckless! You're risking the safety and security of East Asia and the world!" Facts on the ground: North Korea apparently cheats on the agreements and implementation is slow and sporadic as a result.

    2000s -- G.W. Bush abrogates existing agreements, claiming that North Korea isn't honoring them anyway. Declares North Korea part of the "Axis of Evil..." Republican response: "Right on! These two-bit dictators only understand the fist of steel!" Facts on the ground: North Korea accelerates its weapons research and detonates its first atomic bomb in 2006.

    2008 -- the Obama administration declares that it is open to negotiations, including a face-to-face meeting between the President of the United States and Kim Jong-Il. Republican response: "OMG! Such a naive and feckless position! Apologist! All that these two-bit dictators understand is the fist of steel! Man up, you effete, anti-American appeaser!" Facts on the ground: No significant negotiations take place. North Korea moves deliberately toward improved weapons technology and tests several improved nuclear devices.

    2017 -- In the face of increasingly capable nuclear weapons and missile tests, Trump threatens "fire and fury like the world has never known." Republican response: "Yeah! All these two-bit dictators understand is the fist of steel! We need to be ready to drop the big one if it comes to it!" Facts on the ground: North Korea tests ever more capable weapons delivery systems and threatens U.S. territory with destruction by "a sea of flame."

    2018 -- After having tested its most capable weapons yet, North Korea signals that it might be open to negotiations once again. In response, the Trump administration declares that it too is open to negotiations, including a face-to-face meeting between the President of the United States and Kim Jong-Un. Republican response: "Brilliant! We need to talk. Jaw jaw is better than war war, eh wot? Most likely the Nobel Peace Prize is on its way!" Facts on the ground: After the groundbreaking summit, North Korea makes no new commitments toward disarmament and by all indications continues its weapons development program apace.

    Republican response to that? "You have to give these things time. Maybe it'll work out and maybe it won't. But at least we will have tried and if it all goes to pot at least it won't be Trump's fault."

    So, yeah, does anyone else see a change in tone here?

    Cheers.
    Last edited by Havelock; 8th July 2018 at 05:12 PM.
    Thanks from Ian Jeffrey and RNG

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