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Thread: New survey of American religious affiliations

  1. #21
    Senior Member Loki's Avatar
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    Voltaire.

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    Veteran Member Czernobog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spookycolt View Post
    That's one hell of a survey.

    Usually 1500 will get you accurate results but 101,000?

    I don't think I've ever heard of one that large before.

    However, I have a counter-poll.





    Poll: Most Americans Say They're Christian - ABC News
    Hmm..."... a random national sample of 1,022 adults." vs 101,000. Guess which one I suspect had a more accurate sampling pool?

  3. #23
    Veteran Member Czernobog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by aboutenough View Post
    Again, 35,000 vs 101,000. Guess which one is going to have the more accurate sampling pool. You claim it is "fake". Do you have evidence of that? Not evidence, mind you, that there are polls that have different findings, but that the poll being discussed in the OP is either not a real poll, or is, in some way, flawed in its methodology.

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    Veteran Member Czernobog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rorschach View Post
    To be honest, I am surprised that there is "43%."

    Americans are "too good" for God, these days.

    Plus, He has rules and shit, that can really cramp a good time, as well as our never-ending pursuit of instant gratification, sans any consequences......
    Yes, because the only way to have a set of ethics, or morality ("rules and shit") is if you are religious, right? Why is it that the religious seem to have this concept that all atheists/non-religious are existential hedonists? Where did that moronic misconception come from?
    Thanks from Babba

  5. #25
    Veteran Member Czernobog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Robert Urbanek View Post
    What's wrong? For starters, venereal disease, drug addiction, and the excessive consumption of resources, which endangers the environment.
    I take issue with the perception that anyone who rejects religion does so because they are an existential hedonist. It is possible to have morals, and standards without relying on some invisible Magic Man in the Sky to tell me what those should be.

  6. #26
    Galactic Ruler Spookycolt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Czernobog View Post
    Hmm..."... a random national sample of 1,022 adults." vs 101,000. Guess which one I suspect had a more accurate sampling pool?
    100,000 is irrelevant.

    You don't need numbers that high to be accurate.

    I would explain the formula for you but you wouldn't understand it, just suffice it to say that after a certain number that number doesn't change anything.

    5000 won't change the results you get from 100k.

    That's why most polling stops at 1500, after that you have your percentages, you can get a bit more accurate but not by much.

    1700-2000 is ideal for polling.

    100k is just overkill.

  7. #27
    Veteran Member Czernobog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spookycolt View Post
    100,000 is irrelevant.

    You don't need numbers that high to be accurate.

    I would explain the formula for you but you wouldn't understand it, just suffice it to say that after a certain number that number doesn't change anything.

    5000 won't change the results you get from 100k.

    That's why most polling stops at 1500, after that you have your percentages, you can get a bit more accurate but not by much.

    1700-2000 is ideal for polling.

    100k is just overkill.
    You're right. but you know what isn't enough to get an accurate sampling? 1,000. So, which do you think is more accurate? The study that had a sampling pool that was too small to be accurate, or the sampling pool that had more than it needed to be accurate?

  8. #28
    Galactic Ruler Spookycolt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Czernobog View Post
    You're right. but you know what isn't enough to get an accurate sampling? 1,000. So, which do you think is more accurate? The study that had a sampling pool that was too small to be accurate, or the sampling pool that had more than it needed to be accurate?
    Correct.

    1000 isn't enough for an accurate sample.

    You need three things.

    The confidence level you want, its usually either 95% or 99%.

    The confidence interval which is your margin of error. You usually want about 3-4%.

    And the population size of your target group. If you are polling a city you will get a number, if you are polling a demographic you will get a number.

    This is where the formula comes in. Combining those three elements reaches a number that doesn't change after a point, the results will always be the same.

    For example, if you want to figure out the effect on 30,000 people you would need to sample 1030 people.

    If you want to sample 100,000 you would sample 1056 people.

    If you want to sample 1,000,000 you would sample 1066.

    If you want to sample 300 million you would sample 1067 people.

    The 1500 mark is to lower the confidence interval so you can get that margin of error as low as possible.

    Complicated but the confidence interval acts as a check to your original data.

  9. #29
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    Polls are all fake news.

  10. #30
    Cat-tastic Babba's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kmiller1610 View Post
    Polls are all fake news.
    Of course. Why is it that some polls aren't perfect it means all of them suck? It is demonstrably true that Americans are becoming less religious.

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