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Thread: US Federal Gov't Shutdown Now Inevitable?

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    Veteran Member Madeline's Avatar
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    Question US Federal Gov't Shutdown Now Inevitable?



    NOTE: my thanks to @Wonderer for the correction. There has been an extension of the 2016/2017 budget through to December, 2017.

    Thus, the pressure on Congress to address this before October 1st has been eliminated.


    Though talk of a government shutdown has become customary for the month of September, recent comments from President Donald Trump over the 2018 budget has more federal employees feeling anxious about the upcoming end of the fiscal year.

    *Snip*

    The president threatened the possibility of a government shutdown over funding for the construction of a wall along the southern border during a rally in Phoenix last week.

    Note: This article was published on August 29, 2017.

    Those comments appeared to faze some federal employees, who used words like “destructive” and “reckless” when describing their reactions to the president’s comments.

    “He is a businessman,” one respondent wrote of Trump. “Would he be closing his business? No, because that would affect his income. But he is sure willing to play with my income! He doesn’t care about the federal employees/middle class. We are not ‘thanked’ for our service like the military members working alongside us. You cannot even believe the hours that are spent preparing and implementing a government shutdown. This is usually accomplished by higher-grade level employees and is very costly because it prevents employees from doing the work they were hired to do.”

    *Snip*

    Congress returned Sept. 5 from its August recess and then had about 12 working days before the funding expires at the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30.

    That left lawmakers with little time to strike some sort of budget deal before Oct. 1. The House passed a minibus of spending bills at the end of July. The minibus sets appropriations for the departments of Defense, Energy, Interior, Veterans Affairs and other agencies, as well as the legislative branch. It also contains $1.6 billion for the construction of a wall along the southern border, but Senate Democrats have expressed their vehement opposition toward any bill that contains border funding.

    Regardless of congressional disagreement over the border wall, multiple budget experts say the House minibus has little chance of Senate passage, as the appropriations bill sets topline figures above the spending caps put forth in the Budget Control Act of 2011.

    Federal employees were relatively split in their predictions for the end of the fiscal year.

    A majority, or 48 percent, said they believed Congress would pass some kind of short-term, continuing resolution by Sept. 30.

    *Snip*
    https://federalnewsradio.com/governm...ness-as-usual/

    A government shutdown is when non-essential discretionary federal programs close. The Executive branch must do this when Congress fails to appropriate funds. In the normal budget process, Congress appropriate funds by September 30 for the following fiscal year. When that doesn't happen, then Congress enacts a continuing funding resolution. If Congress can't even agree on that, then that forces a shutdown.

    It means there has been a complete breakdown in the budget process.

    The next shutdown could occur on October 1, 2017. That's when the continuing resolution expires. Congress approved that one-week extension of current spending levels on April 28, 2017. The continuing resolution allows time for the two houses of Congress to agree on the budget for fiscal year 2017.The discretionary budget funds most federal departments. But those that provide essential services are not shut down. Essential services are those that include defense, national safety and security. Many of these agencies are set up so they can operate for weeks without a funding bill.

    The immediate effect is on the people who are furloughed, and those who use the services that are stopped.

    As the shutdown continues, agencies use up any excess or saved funds, and more services start to close.

    If the shutdown continues beyond two weeks, expect it to affect economic growth. That's because government spending is, itself, a component of GDP. (Source: "Impact of a Government Shutdown," The Washington Post, September 29, 2013.)

    What about Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid payments? They are part of the mandatory budget. That budget also includes TARP and the Affordable Care Act. These programs are never shut down because their funding is automatic.

    They were created by separate Acts of Congress. The budget for these programs estimates how much it costs to keep those programs funded. The only way Congress can cut funding is by eliminating or changing the program with another Act.

    *Snip*
    https://www.thebalance.com/government-shutdown-3305683

    I do not think Trump's presidency would survive a shut down, but he has promised it to voters as if this would be a great blessing!

    See also: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics...itable/537753/

    And: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...own/100838716/

    And: http://time.com/4753249/trump-govern...der-wall-2017/

    What do you think will happen? Are you taking any steps specifically to prepare to cope with a federal government shutdown?

    My brother wants to take his wife to the Dominican Republic in October. If the federal government has shut down I am going to try and persuade him to change his plans, as there is no guarantee that the US Embassy there would be open.

    Might seem over-cautious, but on the 1 in 1 million chance they needed help from our government while on vacation, they might not get it.

    Your thoughts?
    Last edited by Madeline; 22nd September 2017 at 05:38 AM.

  2. #2
    Veteran Member Madeline's Avatar
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    According to Five Thirty Eight*, Trump's approval rating today has risen back up to 41.6%. If the past is a guide, he is in no immediate danger of impeachment as long as his numbers stay above 30%.

    But I do not think this is likely, if the federal government shuts down.

    To our Trump supporters here: Are you happy or unhappy that Trump is treating the funding for the border wall as the point of contention he will not conceded "just to keep the government open for business"?

    Are you upset that he has retreated from his campaign promise that Mexico would pay for the wall?


    *Five Thirty Eight blends all the polls and come up with a weighted average of them. Therefore, it should be the most accurate gauge of the president's popularity.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/

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    Galactic Ruler Spookycolt's Avatar
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    When have embassy's closed during any of the other numerous government shutdowns?

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    Veteran Member Madeline's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spookycolt View Post
    When have embassy's closed during any of the other numerous government shutdowns?
    Whut "numerous other shutdowns"?

    There have been threats, and occasionally, a few days of closure. But a shutdown lasting weeks or months?

    Nope.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Govern...eral_shutdowns

    There is no trust fund or dedicated tax revenue stream to fund the US State Department. They could not keep embassies open if the dough to pay salaries and expenses dried up.
    Last edited by Madeline; 22nd September 2017 at 03:57 AM.

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    Galactic Ruler Spookycolt's Avatar
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    There have been 18 of them I believe ranging from 8 to 17 days.

    Most caused by democrats by the way.

    Not one of them caused an embassy to close.

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    Veteran Member Madeline's Avatar
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    Not according to the Wikipedia page I linked.

    Funny thing is, I could swear there was a shutdown when Carter was in office, and the US Mail was interrupted.

    But apparently, I am mistaken.

  7. #7
    Galactic Ruler Spookycolt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Madeline View Post
    Not according to the Wikipedia page I linked.

    Funny thing is, I could swear there was a shutdown when Carter was in office, and the US Mail was interrupted.

    But apparently, I am mistaken.
    That's why you don't rely on Wiki for source information hun.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.d58104acb710
    Thanks from Madeline

  8. #8
    Veteran Member Madeline's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spookycolt View Post
    That's why you don't rely on Wiki for source information hun.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.d58104acb710
    I linked several articles in the Op, about past shutdowns. Not one supported your contention that there have been "numerous past shutdowns lasting days or weeks."

    Frustrating, that reliable information is elusive.

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    Galactic Ruler Spookycolt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Madeline View Post
    I linked several articles in the Op, about past shutdowns. Not one supported your contention that there have been "numerous past shutdowns lasting days or weeks."
    I never made the claim that they lasted weeks.

    Care to quote me where I said that?

  10. #10
    Veteran Member Madeline's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spookycolt View Post
    I never made the claim that they lasted weeks.

    Care to quote me where I said that?
    My apologies.

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