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Thread: All environmentalists eat this:

  1. #1
    The_Bear

    All environmentalists eat this:

    R. TIMOTHY PATTERSON, Financial Post

    Published: Wednesday, June 20, 2007
    Politicians and environmentalists these days convey the impression that climate-change research is an exceptionally dull field with little left to discover. We are assured by everyone from David Suzuki to Al Gore to Prime Minister Stephen Harper that "the science is settled." At the recent G8 summit, German Chancellor Angela Merkel even attempted to convince world leaders to play God by restricting carbon-dioxide emissions to a level that would magically limit the rise in world temperatures to 2C.

    The fact that science is many years away from properly understanding global climate doesn't seem to bother our leaders at all. Inviting testimony only from those who don't question political orthodoxy on the issue, parliamentarians are charging ahead with the impossible and expensive goal of "stopping global climate change." Liberal MP Ralph Goodale's June 11 House of Commons assertion that Parliament should have "a real good discussion about the potential for carbon capture and sequestration in dealing with carbon dioxide, which has tremendous potential for improving the climate, not only here in Canada but around the world," would be humorous were he, and even the current government, not deadly serious about devoting vast resources to this hopeless crusade.


    Climate stability has never been a feature of planet Earth. The only constant about climate is change; it changes continually and, at times, quite rapidly. Many times in the past, temperatures were far higher than today, and occasionally, temperatures were colder. As recently as 6,000 years ago, it was about 3C warmer than now. Ten thousand years ago, while the world was coming out of the thou-sand-year-long "Younger Dryas" cold episode, temperatures rose as much as 6C in a decade -- 100 times faster than the past century's 0.6C warming that has so upset environmentalists.


    Climate-change research is now literally exploding with new findings. Since the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, the field has had more research than in all previous years combined and the discoveries are completely shattering the myths. For example, I and the first-class scientists I work with are consistently finding excellent correlations between the regular fluctuations in the brightness of the sun and earthly climate. This is not surprising. The sun and the stars are the ultimate source of all energy on the planet.


    My interest in the current climate-change debate was triggered in 1998, when I was funded by a Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council strategic project grant to determine if there were regular cycles in West Coast fish productivity. As a result of wide swings in the populations of anchovies, herring and other commercially important West Coast fish stock, fisheries managers were having a very difficult time establishing appropriate fishing quotas. One season there would be abundant stock and broad harvesting would be acceptable; the very next year the fisheries would collapse. No one really knew why or how to predict the future health of this crucially important resource.


    Although climate was suspected to play a significant role in marine productivity, only since the beginning of the 20th century have accurate fishing and temperature records been kept in this region of the northeast Pacific. We needed indicators of fish productivity over thousands of years to see whether there were recurring cycles in populations and what phenomena may be driving the changes.


    My research team began to collect and analyze core samples from the bottom of deep Western Canadian fjords. The regions in which we chose to conduct our research, Effingham Inlet on the West Coast of Vancouver Island, and in 2001, sounds in the Belize-Seymour Inlet complex on the mainland coast of British Columbia, were perfect for this sort of work. The topography of these fjords is such that they contain deep basins that are subject to little water transfer from the open ocean and so water near the bottom is relatively stagnant and very low in oxygen content. As a consequence, the floors of these basins are mostly lifeless and sediment layers build up year after year, undisturbed over millennia.


    Using various coring technologies, we have been able to collect more than 5,000 years' worth of mud in these basins, with the oldest layers coming from a depth of about 11 metres below the fjord floor. Clearly visible in our mud cores are annual changes that record the different seasons: corresponding to the cool, rainy winter seasons, we see dark layers composed mostly of dirt washed into the fjord from the land; in the warm summer months we see abundant fossilized fish scales and diatoms (the most common form of phytoplankton, or single-celled ocean plants) that have fallen to the fjord floor from nutrient-rich surface waters. In years when warm summers dominated climate in the region, we clearly see far thicker layers of diatoms and fish scales than we do in cooler years. Ours is one of the highest-quality climate records available anywhere today and in it we see obvious confirmation that natural climate change can be dramatic. For example, in the middle of a 62-year slice of the record at about 4,400 years ago, there was a shift in climate in only a couple of seasons from warm, dry and sunny conditions to one that was mostly cold and rainy for several decades.


    Using computers to conduct what is referred to as a "time series analysis" on the colouration and thickness of the annual layers, we have discovered repeated cycles in marine productivity in this, a region larger than Europe. Specifically, we find a very strong and consistent 11-year cycle throughout the whole record in the sediments and diatom remains. This correlates closely to the well-known 11-year "Schwabe" sunspot cycle, during which the output of the sun varies by about 0.1%. Sunspots, violent storms on the surface of the sun, have the effect of increasing solar output, so, by counting the spots visible on the surface of our star, we have an indirect measure of its varying brightness. Such records have been kept for many centuries and match very well with the changes in marine productivity we are observing.


    In the sediment, diatom and fish-scale records, we also see longer period cycles, all correlating closely with other well-known regular solar variations. In particular, we see marine productivity cycles that match well with the sun's 75-90-year "Gleissberg Cycle," the 200-500-year "Suess Cycle" and the 1,100-1,500-year "Bond Cycle." The strength of these cycles is seen to vary over time, fading in and out over the millennia. The variation in the sun's brightness over these longer cycles may be many times greater in magnitude than that measured over the short Schwabe cycle and so are seen to impact marine productivity even more significantly.


    Our finding of a direct correlation between variations in the brightness of the sun and earthly climate indicators (called "proxies") is not unique. Hundreds of other studies, using proxies from tree rings in Russia's Kola Peninsula to water levels of the Nile, show exactly the same thing: The sun appears to drive climate change.


    However, there was a problem. Despite this clear and repeated correlation, the measured variations in incoming solar energy were, on their own, not sufficient to cause the climate changes we have observed in our proxies. In addition, even though the sun is brighter now than at any time in the past 8,000 years, the increase in direct solar input is not calculated to be sufficient to cause the past century's modest warming on its own. There had to be an amplifier of some sort for the sun to be a primary driver of climate change.

  2. #2
    The_Bear

    Re: All environmentalists eat this:

    Indeed, that is precisely what has been discovered. In a series of groundbreaking scientific papers starting in 2002, Veizer, Shaviv, Carslaw, and most recently Svensmark et al., have collectively demonstrated that as the output of the sun varies, and with it, our star's protective solar wind, varying amounts of galactic cosmic rays from deep space are able to enter our solar system and penetrate the Earth's atmosphere. These cosmic rays enhance cloud formation which, overall, has a cooling effect on the planet. When the sun's energy output is greater, not only does the Earth warm slightly due to direct solar heating, but the stronger solar wind generated during these "high sun" periods blocks many of the cosmic rays from entering our atmosphere. Cloud cover decreases and the Earth warms still more.


    The opposite occurs when the sun is less bright. More cosmic rays are able to get through to Earth's atmosphere, more clouds form, and the planet cools more than would otherwise be the case due to direct solar effects alone. This is precisely what happened from the middle of the 17th century into the early 18th century, when the solar energy input to our atmosphere, as indicated by the number of sunspots, was at a minimum and the planet was stuck in the Little Ice Age. These new findings suggest that changes in the output of the sun caused the most recent climate change. By comparison, CO2 variations show little correlation with our planet's climate on long, medium and even short time scales.


    In some fields the science is indeed "settled." For example, plate tectonics, once highly controversial, is now so well-established that we rarely see papers on the subject at all. But the science of global climate change is still in its infancy, with many thousands of papers published every year. In a 2003 poll conducted by German environmental researchers Dennis Bray and Hans von Storch, two-thirds of more than 530 climate scientists from 27 countries surveyed did not believe that "the current state of scientific knowledge is developed well enough to allow for a reasonable assessment of the effects of greenhouse gases." About half of those polled stated that the science of climate change was not sufficiently settled to pass the issue over to policymakers at all.


    Solar scientists predict that, by 2020, the sun will be starting into its weakest Schwabe solar cycle of the past two centuries, likely leading to unusually cool conditions on Earth. Beginning to plan for adaptation to such a cool period, one which may continue well beyond one 11-year cycle, as did the Little Ice Age, should be a priority for governments. It is global cooling, not warming, that is the major climate threat to the world, especially Canada. As a country at the northern limit to agriculture in the world, it would take very little cooling to destroy much of our food crops, while a warming would only require that we adopt farming techniques practiced to the south of us.


    Meantime, we need to continue research into this, the most complex field of science ever tackled, and immediately halt wasted expenditures on the King Canute-like task of "stopping climate change."

    Read the sunspots

  3. #3
    operator kos

    Re: All environmentalists eat this:

    I thought about eating it, but it smelled like BS so I decided against it.

  4. #4
    The_Bear

    Re: All environmentalists eat this:

    oh rly? its bs? how you figure that?

  5. #5
    mpano66

    Re: All environmentalists eat this:

    So far solar variations have done more to explain climate fluctuations than CO2.

  6. #6
    foxtuba

    Re: All environmentalists eat this:

    Quote Originally Posted by mpano66 View Post
    So far solar variations have done more to explain climate fluctuations than CO2.
    Hmm, so far one cause has hurt our environment more than another cause.

    Conservative point-of-view: "Well, we could fix one cause, but there's another bad thing taking place, so screw them both. I hate this planet anyway. Can we find something new to blame? C'mon, I have so much sitting on my arse and blaming others!"

    Progressive point-of-view: "Oh, if solar variations are truly affecting our climate, well, that's something we can't control. Ah, but if CO2 emissions are increasing our temperature drastically, then let's try to reduce and regulate what's being shot into our atmosphere because, you know, that's something on our planet and something that we have to deal with. Because if we have the ability to hurt our environment, then we sure as hell have the ability to fix it. And who knows? Maybe we have to go further due to the effects of solar variation, such to balance things out?"

    What is wrong with humanity? Sad, sad, sad..
    By the way, environmentalists would not be effected by you. Instead of being hurt, they are going out and trying to protect mankind from extincting. Of course, how tempting it is to sit back and believe that Newton, a scientist from centuries ago, was correct in predicting that the world would end around 2060. Keep your fingers crossed!

  7. #7
    mpano66

    Re: All environmentalists eat this:

    Quote Originally Posted by foxtuba View Post
    Hmm, so far one cause has hurt our environment more than another cause.

    Conservative point-of-view: "Well, we could fix one cause, but there's another bad thing taking place, so screw them both. I hate this planet anyway. Can we find something new to blame? C'mon, I have so much sitting on my arse and blaming others!"

    Progressive point-of-view: "Oh, if solar variations are truly affecting our climate, well, that's something we can't control. Ah, but if CO2 emissions are increasing our temperature drastically, then let's try to reduce and regulate what's being shot into our atmosphere because, you know, that's something on our planet and something that we have to deal with. Because if we have the ability to hurt our environment, then we sure as hell have the ability to fix it. And who knows? Maybe we have to go further due to the effects of solar variation, such to balance things out?"

    What is wrong with humanity? Sad, sad, sad..
    By the way, environmentalists would not be effected by you. Instead of being hurt, they are going out and trying to protect mankind from extincting. Of course, how tempting it is to sit back and believe that Newton, a scientist from centuries ago, was correct in predicting that the world would end around 2060. Keep your fingers crossed!
    Or you could be a complete idiot and say, "Oh, CO2 might in some way be causing the planet to warm? Ok, well, there's a shit ton of evidence that says it isnt, and very little viable evidence that it IS...but sure! What the fuck! I'll run around in a circle and scream 'The sky is falling!!' with Chicken Little and the REST of the retards and encourage my government to blow billions MORE on global warming research! Yeah! This is a much better idea than funding finding new fuels which would eliminate the reliance on fossil fuels and reduce emissions worldwide!"

    Am I the only one that looks at the Warmists and thinks, "Ummm....what the fuck are you thinking???"

  8. #8
    Latherty

    Re: All environmentalists eat this:

    Quote Originally Posted by operator kos View Post
    I thought about eating it, but it smelled like BS so I decided against it.
    You're instincts seem correct -

    He is a science advisor to the direputable Natural Resources Stewardship Council:
    "The NRSP has been exposed recently as being controlled by energy industry lobbyists"
    Natural Resources Stewardship Project - SourceWatch

    and a member of the science advisory board for Friends of Science:
    "In an August 12, 2006, article The Globe and Mail revealed that the group had received significant funding via anonymous, indirect donations from the oil industry." Friends of Science - SourceWatch


    The work from Svensmark et al. was published in October 2006 - there is nothing new here and nothing post-dating the IPCC 4th report.

    The article, interestingly, does not attempt to challenge any IPCC findings, even though we have a nice little report from which to take statements and then openly undermine them...

    This is an attempt at Chinese water torture; a re-packaging old news as new in order to generate some interest in a largely debunked scientific back-water.

  9. #9
    The_Bear

    Re: All environmentalists eat this:

    Quote Originally Posted by Latherty View Post
    You're instincts seem correct -

    He is a science advisor to the direputable Natural Resources Stewardship Council:
    "The NRSP has been exposed recently as being controlled by energy industry lobbyists"
    Natural Resources Stewardship Project - SourceWatch

    and a member of the science advisory board for Friends of Science:
    "In an August 12, 2006, article The Globe and Mail revealed that the group had received significant funding via anonymous, indirect donations from the oil industry." Friends of Science - SourceWatch


    The work from Svensmark et al. was published in October 2006 - there is nothing new here and nothing post-dating the IPCC 4th report.

    The article, interestingly, does not attempt to challenge any IPCC findings, even though we have a nice little report from which to take statements and then openly undermine them...

    This is an attempt at Chinese water torture; a re-packaging old news as new in order to generate some interest in a largely debunked scientific back-water.
    so you openly declare that the only reason this guy is wrong is because he gets his funding from the energy lobby?

  10. #10
    Burning Giraffe

    Re: All environmentalists eat this:

    Quote Originally Posted by mpano66 View Post
    So far solar variations have done more to explain climate fluctuations than CO2.
    True, but liberals can't gain political and economic power by making people afraid of the sun. Personally, I think its best to ignore the people who are screaming that the sky is falling and focus on meaningful environmental policy, fighting polution found in our air, our water, and our soil.

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