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Thread: Gubernatorial Elections - Last Hope of the Democrat Party?

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    Veteran Member Southern Dad's Avatar
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    Gubernatorial Elections - Last Hope of the Democrat Party?

    Keep in mind that the governor in most states approves the congressional redistricting done by the state legislature. Right now, the Republicans hold 34 out of 50 state governor positions, with the Democrats only holding 15. (Alaska's governor is an independent.) Are state races going to be more important than the House and Senate races in 2018?

    The future of the Democratic Party could be written in upcoming gubernatorial races

    Even if there are favorable conditions for the Democrats, it is difficult to overstate the significance of these 2018 contests for their longer-term implications for the party. Winning more governorships offers at least two potential dividends. First, it could bring new faces to a party desperately in need of a reinvigoration through fresh, younger talent. Second, it could give Democrats more power in the redistricting battles that will take place after the 2020 Census and that will affect the shape of the House for a decade.

    “The future of the Democratic Party really is at stake in these gubernatorial elections,” said Elisabeth Pearson, executive director of the Democratic Governors Association. Over the next 15 months, there will be 38 gubernatorial races, starting this November with contests in Virginia and New Jersey. Democrats are heavily favored to pick up New Jersey, where current Gov. Chris Christie (R) has an approval rating in the teens. In Virginia, currently in Democratic hands under Gov. Terry McAuliffe, the race will be closer, but Democrats rate a narrow advantage.

    The real test will come in November 2018, with the Republicans having to defend 26 states to just nine for the Democrats. Of those 26 Republican-held seats, about half will feature incumbents running (although several were appointed since 2014 and will be running on their own for the first time) while the remainder will be open seats and therefore potentially more attractive targets.

    But here’s just one example of the challenge for Democrats. Republicans currently hold the governorships in Maryland, Massachusetts and Vermont, all deep-blue states presidentially. Yet the incumbents — Larry Hogan in Maryland, Charlie Baker in Massachusetts and Phil Scott in Vermont — are among the most popular governors in the nation. In a wave election, one or more could be vulnerable, but Democrats can’t count on easy pickups in states where their presidential candidates won by big margins last year.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...=.6335d7f5bf2a

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    Southern Strategy Liberal OldGaffer's Avatar
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    No problem, SD, we are going to a one party system like Germany had in the 1930's, you will be happy. Sieg Heil, Mein Fuhrer.

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    Veteran Member Southern Dad's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldGaffer View Post
    No problem, SD, we are going to a one party system like Germany had in the 1930's, you will be happy. Sieg Heil, Mein Fuhrer.
    First, I'm not a Nazi and your posts trying to make it seem like I am demonstrate ignorance. Second, I do not believe that we will have a one party system. I think that we will always have two parties. I believe that the Democrat Party may not be the second one. It could be something like the Republican Party and some kind of far right party like the TEA Party.

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    Veteran Member PACE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southern Dad View Post
    First, I'm not a Nazi and your posts trying to make it seem like I am demonstrate ignorance. Second, I do not believe that we will have a one party system. I think that we will always have two parties. I believe that the Democrat Party may not be the second one. It could be something like the Republican Party and some kind of far right party like the TEA Party.
    you're wrong about that, completely wrong, and if you look at the stats, which someone has done, the map looks like 2010; favoring democrats, but you keep compliant and lazy in your assertions; they are typically and usually wrong.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PACE View Post
    you're wrong about that, completely wrong, and if you look at the stats, which someone has done, the map looks like 2010; favoring democrats, but you keep compliant and lazy in your assertions; they are typically and usually wrong.
    If you looked "at the stats" before the election last November, Hillary was gonna win.

    The demos were against the Repubs, they would never win another national election.

    If you looked "at the stats"...
    Thanks from Southern Dad

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    Veteran Member Southern Dad's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PACE View Post
    you're wrong about that, completely wrong, and if you look at the stats, which someone has done, the map looks like 2010; favoring democrats, but you keep compliant and lazy in your assertions; they are typically and usually wrong.
    Obviously, from this post, you didn't comprehend my post. Where did I make an assertion that the Democrats would win or lose more governor seats in 2018 or 2020? I didn't. You lack reading comprehension. Your political bias is so deep that you looked for a reason to lash out with this asinine post. I completely understand that the Republicans have to defend 26 states to the Democrats 9. As a matter of fact, I actually selected that paragraph to quote in the OP.

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    Southern Strategy Liberal OldGaffer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Miller47 View Post
    If you looked "at the stats" before the election last November, Hillary was gonna win.

    The demos were against the Repubs, they would never win another national election.

    If you looked "at the stats"...
    Everyone but you realizes that the Trump election was an unprecedented anomaly, unlikely to be repeated. Unless you think Republicans can continue to win presidential elections while losing the popular vote by millions of votes?

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    Veteran Member Southern Dad's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldGaffer View Post
    Everyone but you realizes that the Trump election was an unprecedented anomaly, unlikely to be repeated. Unless you think Republicans can continue to win presidential elections while losing the popular vote by millions of votes?
    It's happened 5 times in our history, that the popular vote winner did not win the presidency. Is that an unprecedented anomaly? (1824, 1876, 1888, 2000, 2016)

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    Southern Strategy Liberal OldGaffer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southern Dad View Post
    It's happened 5 times in our history, that the popular vote winner did not win the presidency. Is that an unprecedented anomaly? (1824, 1876, 1888, 2000, 2016)
    Never before by millions of votes.

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    Veteran Member Southern Dad's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldGaffer View Post
    Never before by millions of votes.
    Okay, not millions but let's look at percentage. What about 1824 when Andrew Jackson took 41% to John Q Adams getting 31% of the popular vote. Further, Jackson carried 12 states in the EC to Adams 7. Hillary R Clinton had 48% of the popular vote to Donald J Trump's 46%. This election was far closer, although the number of actual voters were higher, the population has grown.

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