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Thread: 2018 midterms talk

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    Card carrying weirdo BYG Jacob's Avatar
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    2018 midterms talk

    I think the key thing is in addition to getting turnout, the suburbs are starting to swing against the GOP. And that should scare the shit out of the GOP, because it will be a bloodbath in districts they gerrymandered. Just look at Virginia, and Alabama, or the other special elections. My guess is the Dems get the house, and have a decent shot at the senate.

    What do y'all think?
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    Dick with my Buzz...Try DebateDrone's Avatar
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    Gerrymandering and lies only worked so long for the GOP. Now it's time to pay the piper.

    If the GOP passes this massive tax give-away there will be no money for what the WH is claiming they want to accomplish in 2018.

    Kiss a border wall and infrastructure jobs package goodbye.

    Trumplicans were all giddy this past weeks with the announcement of 40K new manufacturing jobs when the US is still some 5 million manufacturing jobs in the hole.

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    Veteran Member Southern Dad's Avatar
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    I want to know how you think that the Democrats have a decent chance at the Senate. Don't just throw out hatred, spell it out. Show us the path. Convince me. What seats will the Democrats take? The Republicans have only 8 seats up in 2018 in the US Senate. Which of the 8 do you think the Democrats will get? Then after you determine which two the Democrats can get, tell me do you think the Democrats can successfully defend all 26 of their seats that are up in 2018? West Virginia? Missouri? How many can they afford to lose?

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    Card carrying weirdo BYG Jacob's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southern Dad View Post
    I want to know how you think that the Democrats have a decent chance at the Senate. Don't just throw out hatred, spell it out. Show us the path. Convince me. What seats will the Democrats take? The Republicans have only 8 seats up in 2018 in the US Senate. Which of the 8 do you think the Democrats will get? Then after you determine which two the Democrats can get, tell me do you think the Democrats can successfully defend all 26 of their seats that are up in 2018? West Virginia? Missouri? How many can they afford to lose?
    Somebody asked a DNC strategist how they would get the senate and he said, "Arizona, Nevada, and an act of god". They got the hardest first, Nevada should be a win (poor Heller), and Arizona will be very close, especially if Republicans nominate Ward. Trump is extremely unpopular, and the environment looks very similar to the Republican wave in 2010. where you had extremely tight races in places there shouldn't have been, Virginia was a bloodbath, and then you had an upset in senate special election. Also, again, the GOP brand is turning off the normally reliable Republican suburbs. The Dems have cut into the GOP stranglehold on suburbia. And because the GOP is so unpopular the Dem base has been energized and are turning out. There won't be such a massive disparity like in Alabama, but it will make a difference. Didn't contest the notion that Dems get the house, so I think you understand this on some level.
    Thanks from Minotaur, OHjulie and MaryAnne

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    Veteran Member Southern Dad's Avatar
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    Okay, if they get Arizona and Nevada, that still leaves them defending 26 seats. It just isn't going to happen. The House is possible but I don't think probable. The Democrats historically do not have the turn out in midterm elections. In addition, the Democrats claim that the seats are gerrymandered in favor of Republicans. If the Democrats had an easy path to victory would it mean that the gerrymandering argument was a lie?

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    Flibbertigibbet Wonderer's Avatar
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    A little early in the game but I believe Dems have an uphill battle if the economy stays on pace. If it goes south or if people don't see a noticeable benefit from the tax reform bill, all bets are off.
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    Veteran Member Southern Dad's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderer View Post
    A little early in the game but I believe Dems have an uphill battle if the economy stays on pace. If it goes south or if people don't see a noticeable benefit from the tax reform bill, all bets are off.
    I believe that you are right. I also believe the economy, jobs, and border security will be crucial in any hopes of a Republican victory in 2020. The seats that are up in 2020 favor the Democrats taking the Senate. But 2018? Not the case.
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    Card carrying weirdo BYG Jacob's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southern Dad View Post
    Okay, if they get Arizona and Nevada, that still leaves them defending 26 seats. It just isn't going to happen. The House is possible but I don't think probable. The Democrats historically do not have the turn out in midterm elections. In addition, the Democrats claim that the seats are gerrymandered in favor of Republicans. If the Democrats had an easy path to victory would it mean that the gerrymandering argument was a lie?
    Which of the 26 will be the hardest to defend? Most of those seats are safe for Dems. Missouri, Indiana, North Dakota, and West Virginia are the ones that should really worry Dems. The rest are leaning/safe for them. So they have to really defend 4 seats. And those are all tossups. Given the environment, the House is likely

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    Veteran Member Pragmatist's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southern Dad View Post
    I want to know how you think that the Democrats have a decent chance at the Senate. Don't just throw out hatred, spell it out. Show us the path. Convince me. What seats will the Democrats take? The Republicans have only 8 seats up in 2018 in the US Senate. Which of the 8 do you think the Democrats will get? Then after you determine which two the Democrats can get, tell me do you think the Democrats can successfully defend all 26 of their seats that are up in 2018? West Virginia? Missouri? How many can they afford to lose?
    None of the democrats defending their seats are going to lose to a republican. simply not going to happen with the president being such and asshole. Now, how many repubs need to be defeated? Maybe 2?
    Thanks from Thx1138 and MaryAnne

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    Card carrying weirdo BYG Jacob's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderer View Post
    A little early in the game but I believe Dems have an uphill battle if the economy stays on pace. If it goes south or if people don't see a noticeable benefit from the tax reform bill, all bets are off.
    The economy didn't help in Virginia or Alabama.
    Thanks from OHjulie

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