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Thread: Clinton, Obama will not win the democratic nomination; Edwards, Biden poised to win

  1. #1
    Rev. Rob

    Clinton, Obama will not win the democratic nomination; Edwards, Biden poised to win

    If the media is to be believed, then Hillary Clinton is already running in the general election against a to-be Republican nominee and her only rival with a hope of defeating her is Barack Obama. However, both are likely to lose the Primary.

    Hillary Rodham Clinton, former first lady to one of the most popular American Presidents to ever hold the office, and current junior Senator from New York, is the cash leader as well as the front runner for the Democratic Nomination in all national polls. But does that mean she can win her party’s nomination? No.

    A Clinton nomination is the dream of the Republican-right, and for several reasons.

    With the unpopularity of the Bush administration and Bush policies, most of America is ready for a change. As a result, among the biggest problem that Republicans will have in 2008 is getting conservatives to the polls. With an attitude that a democratic victory is a foregone conclusion compounded by the fact that GOP frontrunners like Mitt Romney and Rudolph Giuliani are anything but inspiring to the Republican base, conservatives may very well stay at home come election night.

    A Hillary Clinton candidacy in the General Election changes all of that. As the single most polarizing figure in politics, the mere mention of her name will send her opposition to the polls in droves, not to vote for their man, but to vote against her. With this notion in mind, it is self-evident why Hillary’s name is mentioned two-dozen or more times in GOP debates and countless times in Republican stump speeches.

    As badly as many Republicans want to see Clinton get the win, many Democrats are looking for someone who is anyone but her.

    Democratic leaders recognize Hillary’s polarization factor as a negative for their party as well.

    Democrats won a majority in the House of Representatives in 2006, but in many districts the margin of victory was slim, such as in the Arizona 5th, where Harry Mitchell defeated the popular Republican JD Hayworth by a margin of only 5%, the Connecticut 2nd where Democrat Joe Courtney defeated incumbent Republican Rob Simmons by only 0.04%, just 92 votes. All 435 seats in the House are up for reelection in 2008.

    In silent opposition to Hillary’s candidacy, Democratic leaders fear that her name on a ballot would be enough to cause with winds of fortune to blow just slightly enough in the other direction, and result with a loss of Democratic seats in Congress.

    “She’ll certainly get Republican riled up. They will not only go out and vote against her, they’ll stop off at their neighbors’ houses along the way and drag them to the polls,” an anonymous House Democrat told TIME Magazine.

    Certainly Democrats have a lot to fear from a Hillary Clinton nomination and Republicans have everything to gain.

    If not Hillary, then Barack Obama, right?

    Some logic might suggest that the Illinois Senator Barack Obama is second in line to win if Democratic voters decide against Clinton. He is second in most state and national polls, and he has consistently placed second in fundraising ability. However, that doesn’t make him a shoe-in either.

    The reason for Obama’s high polling numbers isn’t because of his youth, looks, or the appeal of his message, but because he is the candidate, out of both parties, to receive the least amount of negative news coverage. In fact, coverage of Obama in the media is overwhelmingly positive according to a recent study by the Project of Excellence in Journalism.

    Out of all of the media’s coverage of Barack Obama, 46.7% is overwhelmingly positive, while only 15.8% is negative. These numbers are stunning considering that Hillary Clinton’s coverage is 26.9% positive vs. 37.8% negative and GOP frontrunner Rudolph Giuliani’s coverage is 27.8% positive vs. 37% negative.

    When examining Obama’s positives, they are more stunning when each media market is examined individually. With newspapers, 70% of stories about Obama are positive and with network evening news the number is 55%. The only place in the media were Obama receives a greater amount of negative coverage than positive is in conservative talk radio.

    Fears of racist allegations may be driving the media to hold off on criticisms that may be more forthcoming with other candidates. When presidential candidate and Democratic Senator from Delaware Joe Biden paid Obama a compliment saying that he was “clean-cut” and “articulate,” he was attacked for making supposedly racist remarks. It is understandable why the media might be more than a little bit shy about running negative Obama stories.

    As a result, Barack Obama’s highly unscrutinized position in the media has led to overinflated numbers in public polls. Consequently, it is far from inevitable (even unlikely) that his poll numbers will translate into votes when the caucuses and primaries kick off in January.

    If not Hillary or Obama, then who?

    Democrats have yet to truly consider the person who they’ll nominate. In poll conducted in Iowa on January 8th 2004 by KCCI, Howard Dean was polling at 29% to John Kerry’s 18%. Only a few weeks earlier Kerry’s poll numbers had been in the single-digits. Just eleven days later on January 19th John Kerry would win the Iowa caucuses and gained the momentum needed to win the nomination.

    Hillary Clinton is only in the lead in Iowa by a net of 3.6% according analysis by RealClearPolitics. In a state like Iowa where anything can happen, anything will.

    Traditionally, Iowans look for and vote for electability. There is a choice between kinds of candidates; those who will take strong leadership on social issues, and those who will lead the way out of Iraq.

    John Edwards, the former Senator from North Carolina and former VP candidate, is one potential contender who can out on top. Unlike Clinton, Edwards’ message is clear, consistent and concise. He is a populist who has real solutions for social issues such as healthcare, social security, and poverty, and unlike Clinton, none of his plans are secret.

    Edwards is likeable among women, (thanks to no small contribution from his wife), liberals, and independents, and has experience in running a national campaign; enough to inspire confidence behind a vote.

    Joe Biden, on the other hand, is not as “cutting edge” in the realm of reforming healthcare, but he is the only candidate in either party with a plan that can end the war in Iraq by dividing the country into three autonomous regions; one Sunni, one Shia, and one Kurdish, and giving all three self-determined rule, and establishing a federal government for national defense and the distribution of oil revenues. His plan has the backing of 75 US Senators and elements of the Iraqi government.

    As Chairman of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Biden has more experience in international relations than any other candidate. In regards to the current situation in Pakistan, both President Pervez Musharraf and opposition leader Benazir Bhutto called Joe Biden before calling President Bush to discuss the crisis.

    Given the uncertain times that we live in where an international calamity can cost the lives of any number of American citizens, at home and elsewhere in the world, voters in Iowa and other early primary states just might get behind Biden as the best – and most electable – man for the job.

    Still don’t believe me? Still think that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are too far ahead in the polls for anyone to come from behind? Just ask President Howard Dean.

  2. #2
    Zarathustra

    Re: Clinton, Obama will not win the democratic nomination; Edwards, Biden poised to w

    Wow, what an eyesore.

  3. #3
    Rev. Rob

    Re: Clinton, Obama will not win the democratic nomination; Edwards, Biden poised to w

    Quote Originally Posted by Zarathustra View Post
    Wow, what an eyesore.
    Written words. I bet it makes your head hurt.

  4. #4
    Pragmatist

    Re: Clinton, Obama will not win the democratic nomination; Edwards, Biden poised to w

    I think you may very well be right and I hope you are. The only problem is, the democrats are typically rather stupid and I would not put it past them to nominate Hillary or Obama.

  5. #5
    Rev. Rob

    Re: Clinton, Obama will not win the democratic nomination; Edwards, Biden poised to w

    Quote Originally Posted by Pragmatist View Post
    I think you may very well be right and I hope you are. The only problem is, the democrats are typically rather stupid and I would not put it past them to nominate Hillary or Obama.
    I hope I am right too!

    I don't think that Hillary's numbers have anything to do with her being a woman. Her positives vs. negatives are evidence enough of that, whereas Obama's numbers have everything to do with him being black.

    I was being nice when talking about him before, but Obama doesn't actually have anything to say at all, on any topic. He's good at saying that things need to be fixed/changed, but he has no real solution.

    Obama actually proposed immediate troop withdraw from Iraq while at the same time proposing sending more troops in... at the same debate.

    No one wants to be called racist, so everyone just leaves him alone. An awful disservice to the American people, IMO.

    I think the polls that are for Obama are really just people who are against Hillary. When it becomes apparent that his candidacy is just a fizzle, all of those supports will flock to someone else, presumably Edwards and Biden.

    I do have a reasonable amount of faith in Iowa caucus goers. I also know that the polls don't really matter this year until about the second week of December.

  6. #6
    Babylon

    Re: Clinton, Obama will not win the democratic nomination; Edwards, Biden poised to w

    Quote Originally Posted by Rev. Rob View Post
    If the media is to be believed, then Hillary Clinton is already running in the general election against a to-be Republican nominee and her only rival with a hope of defeating her is Barack Obama. However, both are likely to lose the Primary.

    Hillary Rodham Clinton, former first lady to one of the most popular American Presidents to ever hold the office, and current junior Senator from New York, is the cash leader as well as the front runner for the Democratic Nomination in all national polls. But does that mean she can win her party’s nomination? No.

    A Clinton nomination is the dream of the Republican-right, and for several reasons.

    With the unpopularity of the Bush administration and Bush policies, most of America is ready for a change. As a result, among the biggest problem that Republicans will have in 2008 is getting conservatives to the polls. With an attitude that a democratic victory is a foregone conclusion compounded by the fact that GOP frontrunners like Mitt Romney and Rudolph Giuliani are anything but inspiring to the Republican base, conservatives may very well stay at home come election night.

    A Hillary Clinton candidacy in the General Election changes all of that. As the single most polarizing figure in politics, the mere mention of her name will send her opposition to the polls in droves, not to vote for their man, but to vote against her. With this notion in mind, it is self-evident why Hillary’s name is mentioned two-dozen or more times in GOP debates and countless times in Republican stump speeches.

    As badly as many Republicans want to see Clinton get the win, many Democrats are looking for someone who is anyone but her.

    Democratic leaders recognize Hillary’s polarization factor as a negative for their party as well.

    Democrats won a majority in the House of Representatives in 2006, but in many districts the margin of victory was slim, such as in the Arizona 5th, where Harry Mitchell defeated the popular Republican JD Hayworth by a margin of only 5%, the Connecticut 2nd where Democrat Joe Courtney defeated incumbent Republican Rob Simmons by only 0.04%, just 92 votes. All 435 seats in the House are up for reelection in 2008.

    In silent opposition to Hillary’s candidacy, Democratic leaders fear that her name on a ballot would be enough to cause with winds of fortune to blow just slightly enough in the other direction, and result with a loss of Democratic seats in Congress.

    “She’ll certainly get Republican riled up. They will not only go out and vote against her, they’ll stop off at their neighbors’ houses along the way and drag them to the polls,” an anonymous House Democrat told TIME Magazine.

    Certainly Democrats have a lot to fear from a Hillary Clinton nomination and Republicans have everything to gain.

    If not Hillary, then Barack Obama, right?

    Some logic might suggest that the Illinois Senator Barack Obama is second in line to win if Democratic voters decide against Clinton. He is second in most state and national polls, and he has consistently placed second in fundraising ability. However, that doesn’t make him a shoe-in either.

    The reason for Obama’s high polling numbers isn’t because of his youth, looks, or the appeal of his message, but because he is the candidate, out of both parties, to receive the least amount of negative news coverage. In fact, coverage of Obama in the media is overwhelmingly positive according to a recent study by the Project of Excellence in Journalism.

    Out of all of the media’s coverage of Barack Obama, 46.7% is overwhelmingly positive, while only 15.8% is negative. These numbers are stunning considering that Hillary Clinton’s coverage is 26.9% positive vs. 37.8% negative and GOP frontrunner Rudolph Giuliani’s coverage is 27.8% positive vs. 37% negative.

    When examining Obama’s positives, they are more stunning when each media market is examined individually. With newspapers, 70% of stories about Obama are positive and with network evening news the number is 55%. The only place in the media were Obama receives a greater amount of negative coverage than positive is in conservative talk radio.

    Fears of racist allegations may be driving the media to hold off on criticisms that may be more forthcoming with other candidates. When presidential candidate and Democratic Senator from Delaware Joe Biden paid Obama a compliment saying that he was “clean-cut” and “articulate,” he was attacked for making supposedly racist remarks. It is understandable why the media might be more than a little bit shy about running negative Obama stories.

    As a result, Barack Obama’s highly unscrutinized position in the media has led to overinflated numbers in public polls. Consequently, it is far from inevitable (even unlikely) that his poll numbers will translate into votes when the caucuses and primaries kick off in January.

    If not Hillary or Obama, then who?

    Democrats have yet to truly consider the person who they’ll nominate. In poll conducted in Iowa on January 8th 2004 by KCCI, Howard Dean was polling at 29% to John Kerry’s 18%. Only a few weeks earlier Kerry’s poll numbers had been in the single-digits. Just eleven days later on January 19th John Kerry would win the Iowa caucuses and gained the momentum needed to win the nomination.

    Hillary Clinton is only in the lead in Iowa by a net of 3.6% according analysis by RealClearPolitics. In a state like Iowa where anything can happen, anything will.

    Traditionally, Iowans look for and vote for electability. There is a choice between kinds of candidates; those who will take strong leadership on social issues, and those who will lead the way out of Iraq.

    John Edwards, the former Senator from North Carolina and former VP candidate, is one potential contender who can out on top. Unlike Clinton, Edwards’ message is clear, consistent and concise. He is a populist who has real solutions for social issues such as healthcare, social security, and poverty, and unlike Clinton, none of his plans are secret.

    Edwards is likeable among women, (thanks to no small contribution from his wife), liberals, and independents, and has experience in running a national campaign; enough to inspire confidence behind a vote.

    Joe Biden, on the other hand, is not as “cutting edge” in the realm of reforming healthcare, but he is the only candidate in either party with a plan that can end the war in Iraq by dividing the country into three autonomous regions; one Sunni, one Shia, and one Kurdish, and giving all three self-determined rule, and establishing a federal government for national defense and the distribution of oil revenues. His plan has the backing of 75 US Senators and elements of the Iraqi government.

    As Chairman of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Biden has more experience in international relations than any other candidate. In regards to the current situation in Pakistan, both President Pervez Musharraf and opposition leader Benazir Bhutto called Joe Biden before calling President Bush to discuss the crisis.

    Given the uncertain times that we live in where an international calamity can cost the lives of any number of American citizens, at home and elsewhere in the world, voters in Iowa and other early primary states just might get behind Biden as the best – and most electable – man for the job.

    Still don’t believe me? Still think that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are too far ahead in the polls for anyone to come from behind? Just ask President Howard Dean.
    If Biden were to run, he'd get my vote as a pissed of Repub. He's a bit of a D-Bag at times, but understands that both parties need to work together. That, and he's not that lying bitch...that too.




    Unless of course Ron Paul is ANYWHERE on the ticket, then Who in the world could vote against Freedom?

  7. #7
    Rev. Rob

    Re: Clinton, Obama will not win the democratic nomination; Edwards, Biden poised to w

    Ya, Biden does seem to command the respect of both Republicans and Democrats. I doubt there's a Republican in the Senate who doesn't trust Biden's judgement.

  8. #8
    Migi e!

    Re: Clinton, Obama will not win the democratic nomination; Edwards, Biden poised to w

    I'm not counting the Clintons out, they have more dirty tricks up their sleeve that a baboon has fleas. I hope she doesn't win the WH because I don't think she's capable of leading nor respecting a democracy, she's too Saul Alinsky like.

  9. #9
    michaelr

    Re: Clinton, Obama will not win the democratic nomination; Edwards, Biden poised to w

    As badly as many Republicans want to see Clinton get the win, many Democrats are looking for someone who is anyone but her.
    Have you stopped to ask yourself why the GOP would want Billary to win. It is a true statement and leaves a real bad taste in my mouth, now I must wash it out with a nice cold beer, thanks Rev. Rob!

  10. #10
    shintao

    Re: Clinton, Obama will not win the democratic nomination; Edwards, Biden poised to w

    Quote Originally Posted by Pragmatist View Post
    I think you may very well be right and I hope you are. The only problem is, the democrats are typically rather stupid and I would not put it past them to nominate Hillary or Obama.

    I am looking forward to a Clinton Team 08' victory and so should this nation. There is nothing stupid about the Clinton goals, the replug live in fear everyday the Clintons are alive. Mr. Bill is the only candidate that can quickly repair our image in the world and re-establish deplomatic broken ties with our allies, and turn the economy around from the borrow & spend practices of the right, and bring fiscal responsibility once again to America to stablize our currency as the main trading dollar of the World. After 16 years of inactive government for the people, there is no candidate that can correct the domestic side of America like the Clinton Team 08', establish National Health Care and strengthen Social Security to insure it's stability for baby boomers.

    The Clinton Team 08' is well versed in terrorism, and Hillary was the first one to state she will secure American borders, and improve the failing Homeland Security, which were original ideas of Bill Clintons camp that Bush tried to capitalize on and failed. ie. Airports security you can fly a 707 through the gates.

    So show me more dedicated people than the Clintons that can do more for this country.

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