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Thread: Trump implodes

  1. #1
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    Trump implodes

    The latest PPP poll shows that Trump has taken a major hit, moving from 26% in GOP polling for the nomination down to 8%.

    You can read the report here. The .pdf data report is here.

    Text of the PPP posting:

    Trump collapses

    "Donald Trump has had one of the quickest rises and falls in the history of Presidential politics. Last month we found him leading the Republican field with 26%. In the space of just four weeks he's dropped all the way down to 8%, putting him in a tie for fifth place with Ron Paul.

    Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are at the top of the GOP race with 19% and 18% respectively. Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin are further back at 13% and 12%, followed by Trump and Paul at 8%, Michele Bachmann at 7%, and Tim Pawlenty at 5%.

    As Trump got more and more exposure over the last month Republicans didn't just decide they weren't interested in having him as their nominee- they also decided they flat don't like him. Only 34% of GOP voters now have a favorable opinion of Trump to 53% who view him in a negative light.

    Trump really made hay out of the 'birther' issue and as the resonance of that has declined, so has his standing. In February we found that 51% of Republican primary voters thought Barack Obama was not born in the United States. Now with the release of his birth certificate only 34% of GOP partisans fall into that camp, and Trump's only in fifth place with that now smaller group of the electorate at 9%.

    Beyond the Trump angle the other thing particularly notable in these numbers is that they confirm Romney and Huckabee starting to pull away from Gingrich and Palin. Most of our polling over the course of 2010 basically showed a four way tie at the top with that quartet of contenders but over the last few months a clearer divide has started to show up in both our state and national polling with Huckabee and Romney more consistently outpolling Gingrich and Palin.

    We also looked at a fair number of alternate Republican universes in which various candidates don't actually end up making the race. With Trump out Romney leads Huckabee 21-20 with Gingrich at 15% and Palin at 14%. With Trump and Huckabee out Romney is tops at 24% to 20% for Gingrich, 17% for Palin, and 12% for Paul. With Trump and Palin out Huckabee has the advantage with 24% to Romney's 22%, and Gingrich's 20%. And with none of Trump, Huckabee, and Palin running Romney gets 28% to 26% for Gingrich, 12% for Paul, and 11% for Bachmann.

    To put that in a simpler form if Huckabee runs it's between him and Romney right now, and if Huckabee doesn't run it's between Romney and Gingrich right now. And there's plenty of time for other folks to work their way into that mix."


    From the .pdf-Data (excerpt):

    Republicans to Trump: You’re fired

    "Raleigh, N.C. – If there were any question that President Obama’s release of his longform
    birth certificate two weeks ago effectively ended Donald Trump’s brief 15 minutes
    at the top of the Republican presidential heap, PPP’s latest national survey of Republican
    primary voters shows that Trump has fallen from first place by nine points in last month’s
    poll to a tie for fifth, barely ahead of the seventh-place candidate.
    In April, PPP found Trump with sole possession of the lead for Republican voters’
    preferences for the nomination. He topped Mike Huckabee 26-17. But now Huckabee is
    back in a narrow lead with 19% to Mitt Romney’s 18%, Newt Gingrich’s 13%, Sarah
    Palin’s 12%, Trump’s and Ron Paul’s 8%, Michele Bachmann’s 7%, and Tim Pawlenty’s
    5%. 34% of these voters still do not believe the president was born in this country. But that is
    down from 51% in the February poll. Trump’s advantage with the birthers has eroded
    even further. Last month, PPP asked a different question—whether Republicans would
    vote for a candidate who affirmed Obama’s citizenship. But while Trump led 37-13 over
    Huckabee and Palin with the 23% who then said they would not vote for an avowed nonbirther,
    he now gets no more support among the remaining birthers than he does among
    the 48% near-majority who believe Obama was born in the country. He pulls 9% with
    the former and 8% with the latter. In fact, it is now Palin and Bachmann who do almost
    twice as well with birthers as non-birthers. Romney’s candidacy also runs up against a
    wall with people who still refuse to acknowledge the president’s birthplace—he leads 22-
    19 over Huckabee with non-birthers but is in fourth at 13% with birthers.
    "


    Probably nothing to discuss here, unless someone can find a poll showing the opposite, but I suspect that all the next polling will show very similar results. Trump is out and will not declare, and if he does, it would be as an independent, which would be an absolute nightmare for the GOP.

    Trump is the only candidate polled with higher negatives than positives among GOP voters:

    34% favorable / 53% unfavorable.

    Palin has the highest favorables:

    61% favorable / 31% unfavorable.

    In most match-ups, Romney comes out on top. In one, Huckabee comes out on top.

  2. #2
    Miss Mock Out jackalope's Avatar
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    I was *just* over at PPP reading this. Poof! Yahr fiy-ahd!

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    Yes, but he can feel free to burn through a billion or so on an independent bid and take the right-wing crazy vote away from a less crazy GOP candidate, like Romney or Huckabee or Daniels.

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    Veteran Member angryamerican's Avatar
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    I hope a second Repubs runs, have 2 running at the same time after the Primaries. Obama 2012!!!!

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    Senior Member Feetie's Avatar
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    The GOP has nobody. It is 1964 all over again.

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    Veteran Member Telecaster's Avatar
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    Whatever interest Trump generated early on, it was mainly due to the help of a media that needed interest/viewership themselves. Trump has never been, nor will be, of serious consideration to the GOP and the majority of conservatives.

    Go Romney. ...or else Pawlenty, Gingrich, whoever...

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    Elitist Towski's Avatar
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    Any interest Trump was getting was an NBC promotional conspiracy surrounding ratings of The Apprentice.

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    I'd like Ron Paul, because he's the only one I could consider voting for.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Feetie View Post
    The GOP has nobody. It is 1964 all over again.
    Actually, I think it is more like 1968, but this time on the GOP side. Over this enormous tilt to the extreme right and the agressive purging of anyone who remotely smells moderate, the GOP is setting itself up for a major split.

    The GOP has declared open war / hunting season on:

    1.) Hispanics. Too bad for the GOP that the hispanic voter block is the fastest growing one in the USA.
    2.) Women, using the abortion issue as a major wedge.
    3.) Gays, gay, gays, they are just so terrible for us all, you know, they ruin our society, you know (Hey, Schoeck, stay in the closet Dude)....
    4.) Blacks, especially this one black president.
    5.) Poor people - only homeowners should be allowed to vote (no shit, conservatives have tried this meme as well).

    So, what's left:

    Old, white grumpy men, mostly. Yepp, sounds like an electoral majority to me.

    the fact that Palin is still polling some numbers worth looking at in many GOP primary polls tells me how much the GOP base has shrunk.

    On the other side, we have a black, northern, liberal democratic president who has actually acted more centrist, who has kept his word on enough promises to make even the most daft of voters note.

    Oh, and did I already mention that Obama killed Bin Laden?

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Morgan View Post
    I'd like Ron Paul, because he's the only one I could consider voting for.
    Then I encourage you to do a write in vote for Paul on November 6, 2012. It's your right, and I am all for it.

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