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Thread: Odds The World Will End By 2100 Now 5%

  1. #11
    Established Member NeoVsMatrix's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Neomalthusian View Post
    One possibility that has always interested me is volcanism. VEI 6 and 7 eruptions are not really all that uncommon, there have been 25 or so in the last 2,000 years, and only a few of which have occurred since there were more than 1 billion people on Earth. Huaynaputina in 1600 caused cooling temperatures resulting in a Russan famine that killed millions, and that was VEI 6. Tambora was VEI 7 and caused a year without a summer. Lots of VEI 6 and 7 eruptions have occurred over the last several thousand years, and eruptions this large frequently emit enormous volumes of light-reflecting sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere causing immediate global cooling and disrupting agricultural productivity. And then of course there's always the doomsday possibility of a VEI 8. There have been about 7 of those in the last 2.5 million years.

    Consider the relative historical frequency of large eruptions relative to the anomalous human population growth over the same time period. Even the medium-height blue bars are gigantic eruptions in terms of volcanic sulfur dioxide emitted into the atmosphere. The previously mentioned 1600 Huaynaputina eruption that caused millions of deaths in Russia is one of the non-salient short bars near the end of the graph.


    How vulnerable is the human population to collapse as a result of, say, a modest 1-3 years of volcanic global cooling ruining a couple years of agricultural productivity after a not-so-uncommon large volcanic eruption?

    your own post says that there were at least 7 such VEI 8 occurrences in the past 2+ million years.. which is quite in line with the development of the homo species tree.. starting back around that time too.
    Expecting that those were much more vulnerable back then, in their early years of evolutionary shaping, it's obvious that at least the direct ancestrial tree leading to the homo sapiens was withstanding these events ok.

    So i'd say chances that any 1-3 year climatic sudden event would bring down the species, is pretty slim.. but what do i know.

    When looking into the extinction of the dinosaurs, which followed a MUCH bigger climatic event after the asteroid collision.. scientist claim to have this been pretty much "instantly":.. whereas, further reading shows that this "instantly" mean 33, 000 years

    http://io9.gizmodo.com/5982775/dinos...steroid-strike

    So to be physically extinct, i think it'll take much longer than 100 years for the homo sapiens, no matter what climatic event would trigger the path.

    Yet we definitely have developed technology that allows us to destroy ourselves, fully and completely - within a day or 2, if we ever commit to it.

  2. #12
    Galactic Ruler Spookycolt's Avatar
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    I doubt even full on nuclear war would completely wipe us out.

    The survivors may look like zombies but I think there would still be plenty left.

    Unless its a global killer like a comet strike or something I think we will survive.

  3. #13
    quichierbichen
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spookycolt View Post
    I highly doubt this will wipe out humans, we are a bit more resilient than you think.
    Not compared to most animals. I highly doubt this will wipe out cockroaches. Humans are pretty delicate by the standards of most animals.
    Thanks from Madeline and NeoVsMatrix

  4. #14
    Veteran Member Madeline's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spookycolt View Post
    I highly doubt this will wipe out humans, we are a bit more resilient than you think.

    You will notice how the link in the OP skips over the part of exactly what will happen.

    They just say it may end but don't tell us how.

    That right there is a sign they have no clue what they are talking about.
    The article discussed various possibilities. It's a bit dense for a nonscientist like me, but I am a huge fan of medical disaster science and sci fi.

    Don't ask me why. I'm sure it's not a completely healthy hobby, lol.

    I love that tv show "Zoo". Completely original theory on how the world ends, for humanity.

  5. #15
    Veteran Member Madeline's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rasselas View Post
    Not compared to most animals. I highly doubt this will wipe out cockroaches. Humans are pretty delicate by the standards of most animals.
    Seems likely anything that made humans extinct would also kill all the other mammals.

  6. #16
    Official HayJenn fan boi knight's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spookycolt View Post
    I doubt even full on nuclear war would completely wipe us out.

    The survivors may look like zombies but I think there would still be plenty left.

    Unless its a global killer like a comet strike or something I think we will survive.
    Maybe mermaids are immune to stuff that kills us, and they will rise as mankinds successor.
    Thanks from Madeline

  7. #17
    Veteran Member Madeline's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by knight View Post
    Maybe mermaids are immune to stuff that kills us, and they will rise as mankinds successor.
    I like mermaids. That's not a bad outcome.

    Lol.

  8. #18
    Veteran Member ptif219's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Madeline View Post
    Problem is all of their predictions have failed.

  9. #19
    Veteran Member Madeline's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spookycolt View Post
    I doubt even full on nuclear war would completely wipe us out.

    The survivors may look like zombies but I think there would still be plenty left.

    Unless its a global killer like a comet strike or something I think we will survive.
    We're still just mammals. If our numbers fell such that we were endangered, it's not odds on that we'd survive.

    Might take another 100 years, but the last humans would fail to reproduce.

  10. #20
    Galactic Ruler Spookycolt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Madeline View Post
    The article discussed various possibilities. It's a bit dense for a nonscientist like me, but I am a huge fan of medical disaster science and sci fi.

    Don't ask me why. I'm sure it's not a completely healthy hobby, lol.

    I love that tv show "Zoo". Completely original theory on how the world ends, for humanity.
    Ha, I just started watching that.

    Couple episodes into it now, pretty good.

    Maybe I missed their possibilities, science outside of politics isn't really my strong suit.
    Thanks from Madeline

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