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Thread: Odds The World Will End By 2100 Now 5%

  1. #21
    Galactic Ruler Spookycolt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Madeline View Post
    We're still just mammals. If our numbers fell such that we were endangered, it's not odds on that we'd survive.

    Might take another 100 years, but the last humans would fail to reproduce.
    I don't know.

    Some studies suggest we were down to 1000 people, one even suggests 40 after Toba the supervolcano went off.

    How Human Beings Almost Vanished From Earth In 70,000 B.C. : Krulwich Wonders... : NPR
    Thanks from Madeline

  2. #22
    Veteran Member Madeline's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spookycolt View Post
    I don't know.

    Some studies suggest we were down to 1000 people, one even suggests 40 after Toba the supervolcano went off.

    How Human Beings Almost Vanished From Earth In 70,000 B.C. : Krulwich Wonders... : NPR
    O, great link! Thanks.

  3. #23
    quichierbichen
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    Quote Originally Posted by Madeline View Post
    Seems likely anything that made humans extinct would also kill all the other mammals.
    I'm thinking mostly of our food supply. Our guts are very delicate. They require only certain sorts of food and that food has to be prepared (cooked or otherwise processed) before we can eat it. To return to hunter-gatherer status would reduce our numbers significantly, even after a disaster had killed most of us directly. And there would be a loss of technology (as happened in the past) that would challenge us as well. And our species was at one time in the past endangered, with only a few thousand members at one point--it's lucky we're even here now. Our species is almost uniquely lacking in diversity--a sharply different environment with very different evolutionary challenges would be tough to overcome.

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Madeline View Post
    Humans are tough. Some of us made it through the ice age with nothing but stone tools. Others have lived, with little in the way of technology, in the wastes of the Sahara, the Gobi, and the Austrlian outback. We've eked out a living high in the Himalayas, and on unproductive little islands in the Pacific. I'm not worried that humans will be wiped out, short of something happening on an astronomical level that we can't foresee. But, civilizations are a lot more fragile than human life as a whole. It's not hard to picture something like climate change leading to a cascade of self-reinforcing disasters that could bring down our current civilization at a similar pace as the fall of the Roman civilization in Western Europe, such that our great-grand-kids are living in a kind of dark age.

  5. #25
    Veteran Member bonehead's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Madeline View Post
    link attached for a list of times the world will end. we have heard this stuff before (and before, and before).
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...alyptic_events

  6. #26
    Established Member NeoVsMatrix's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rasselas View Post
    I'm thinking mostly of our food supply. Our guts are very delicate. They require only certain sorts of food and that food has to be prepared (cooked or otherwise processed) before we can eat it. To return to hunter-gatherer status would reduce our numbers significantly, even after a disaster had killed most of us directly. And there would be a loss of technology (as happened in the past) that would challenge us as well. And our species was at one time in the past endangered, with only a few thousand members at one point--it's lucky we're even here now. Our species is almost uniquely lacking in diversity--a sharply different environment with very different evolutionary challenges would be tough to overcome.
    I don't see it that doomy.

    I think if forced, mankind would adapt to a more primitive lifestyle again with a few years.

    As for processing food, we're coming from uncooked food, both meat and vegetables.. so i don't think it would take very long for our digestive system to align with that.. and then.. we'd still know about and would be able to make fire to cook our food.

    also, there are plenty of foods out there, that we today do not consider edible in our current 1st world society, but a look around the globe, you see that different regions eat different things, and they all live, and survive. If you're about to starve, you'll eat beetles, rats, whatever comes your way, and your body - most of the time - would be just fine with it.

    As for environmental challenges, before modern civilization, mankind has already explored the planet and has built habitat in pretty much every possible climate zone of the planet.. from the extreme colds, o the extreme hot spots.
    And they all very well adapted, and survived, within that zone.

    So i say as long as there would be an atmosphere be left, and no nuclear radiation to kill off every living thing.. humans would survive for quite a while. The critical mass needed for survival of the species, estimation are that we could lose 99.9% of the population on the planet, that would still not put us at risk of going extinct.
    If only every 1000th human would survive any such catastrophe, the world population would still be 7 million.. that's way above extinction rate, as long as the radiation and nuclear winter does not completely screw up our reproductive system.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by NeoVsMatrix View Post
    I don't see it that doomy.

    I think if forced, mankind would adapt to a more primitive lifestyle again with a few years.

    As for processing food, we're coming from uncooked food, both meat and vegetables.. so i don't think it would take very long for our digestive system to align with that.. and then.. we'd still know about and would be able to make fire to cook our food.
    Our ancestors had much larger jaws and teeth because the spent about half their time chewing. We've evolved larger brain pans and smaller jaws. How long would it take to evolve back? We might literally become another species in order to adapt.

    also, there are plenty of foods out there, that we today do not consider edible in our current 1st world society, but a look around the globe, you see that different regions eat different things, and they all live, and survive. If you're about to starve, you'll eat beetles, rats, whatever comes your way, and your body - most of the time - would be just fine with it.
    People die in the wilderness all the time.

    As for environmental challenges, before modern civilization, mankind has already explored the planet and has built habitat in pretty much every possible climate zone of the planet.. from the extreme colds, o the extreme hot spots.
    And they all very well adapted, and survived, within that zone.
    We would no longer be able to adapt our environment to ourselves--we wouldn't have the technology.

    So i say as long as there would be an atmosphere be left, and no nuclear radiation to kill off every living thing.. humans would survive for quite a while. The critical mass needed for survival of the species, estimation are that we could lose 99.9% of the population on the planet, that would still not put us at risk of going extinct.
    If only every 1000th human would survive any such catastrophe, the world population would still be 7 million.. that's way above extinction rate, as long as the radiation and nuclear winter does not completely screw up our reproductive system.
    That's in the first generation.

  8. #28
    Galactic Ruler Spookycolt's Avatar
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    You are assuming those surviving humans wouldn't quickly be able to recreate the technology, at least to some degree.

    I find it highly unlikely we would revert all the way back to the beginning.

    The new offspring would learn things from their parents our ancestors never knew.

    They would know math, language, farming skills right off the bat.

    Construction skills would still be there as well as basic medicine.

    As the parents die off the new generation would keep increasing their technology so I don't think it would be very long before we are pretty much back to where we are now.

    They would know about minerals, mining, things of that nature and would quickly figure out the other stuff.

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