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Thread: Odds The World Will End By 2100 Now 5%

  1. #1
    Veteran Member Madeline's Avatar
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    Odds The World Will End By 2100 Now 5%



    Humanity could be destroyed by 'catastrophic' climate change within the next century.

    That's the shocking claim from US researchers who say there is a 1 in 20 change we'll be wiped out in the next 100 years as a result of 'low-probability high-impact' events.

    They say an increase greater than 3C could lead to 'catastrophic' effects.

    However an increase of more than 5C will 'unknown' consequences which could lead to the end of life as we know it.

    Veerabhadran Ramanathan, a professor of climate and atmospheric sciences at the University of California said: 'When we say five per cent-probability high-impact events, people may dismiss it as small but it is equivalent to a one-in-20 chance the plane you are about to board will crash.'

    Researchers at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego have used this analogy to try and illustrate the situation currently facing the planet.

    They performed calculations to work out what would happen if temperatures rose by varying degrees between now and 2100.
    'We would never get on that plane with a one-in-20 chance of it coming down but we are willing to send our children and grandchildren on that plane,' said Ramanathan.

    Their risk assessment stems from the objective stated in the 2015 Paris Agreement regarding climate change.

    It was agreed that society keep average global temperatures 'well below' a 2C (3.6F) increase from what they were before the Industrial Revolution.
    1-in-20 chance climate change will wipe out humanity | Daily Mail Online

    Things that make you go "humm".........

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    Established Member NeoVsMatrix's Avatar
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    Wipe out humanity... yes. Not as soon as 2100 though, imo.

    The world ending, as per the thread title... not for another 4+billion years, which is when the sun will run out of gas and blow up as a supernova.

    Humanity needs the world for survival... the world couldn't care less about the pimple of humanity in its finite existence.
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    Junior Member Idiocracat's Avatar
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    A good ol' fashioned plague may thin the herd.
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    Veteran Member Madeline's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NeoVsMatrix View Post
    Wipe out humanity... yes. Not as soon as 2100 though, imo.

    The world ending, as per the thread title... not for another 4+billion years, which is when the sun will run out of gas and blow up as a supernova.

    Humanity needs the world for survival... the world couldn't care less about the pimple of humanity in its finite existence.
    Very true.

    Thank you for correcting my sloppy posting.
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  5. #5
    Veteran Member Madeline's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Idiocracat View Post
    A good ol' fashioned plague may thin the herd.
    Da flu, baby.

    Stephen King's The Stand is probably a pretty accurate depiction of this.

    Day one: 9 billion humans

    Day 14: 9 humans
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    Quote Originally Posted by NeoVsMatrix View Post
    Wipe out humanity... yes. Not as soon as 2100 though, imo.

    The world ending, as per the thread title... not for another 4+billion years, which is when the sun will run out of gas and blow up as a supernova.
    "The planet is fine. People are fucked." - George Carlin

    Humanity needs the world for survival...
    Nah, we can just go stake out residence on Mars. (extreme sarcasm)
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    Quote Originally Posted by Madeline View Post
    One possibility that has always interested me is volcanism. VEI 6 and 7 eruptions are not really all that uncommon, there have been 25 or so in the last 2,000 years, and only a few of which have occurred since there were more than 1 billion people on Earth. Huaynaputina in 1600 caused cooling temperatures resulting in a Russan famine that killed millions, and that was VEI 6. Tambora was VEI 7 and caused a year without a summer. Lots of VEI 6 and 7 eruptions have occurred over the last several thousand years, and eruptions this large frequently emit enormous volumes of light-reflecting sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere causing immediate global cooling and disrupting agricultural productivity. And then of course there's always the doomsday possibility of a VEI 8. There have been about 7 of those in the last 2.5 million years.

    Consider the relative historical frequency of large eruptions relative to the anomalous human population growth over the same time period. Even the medium-height blue bars are gigantic eruptions in terms of volcanic sulfur dioxide emitted into the atmosphere. The previously mentioned 1600 Huaynaputina eruption that caused millions of deaths in Russia is one of the non-salient short bars near the end of the graph.


    How vulnerable is the human population to collapse as a result of, say, a modest 1-3 years of volcanic global cooling ruining a couple years of agricultural productivity after a not-so-uncommon large volcanic eruption?

    Last edited by Neomalthusian; 16th September 2017 at 12:02 AM.
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    Veteran Member Eve1's Avatar
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    Well that's 83 years away (2100) and everybody now reading this thread will be dust so......shrug. Taken to the point of P#4 which says it's more like 4+billion years everything including this thread will be dust so...double shrug.
    Last edited by Eve1; 16th September 2017 at 03:45 AM.

  9. #9
    Veteran Member PACE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Madeline View Post
    Something wrong with this, it's based on a theoretical of a 3.5 F increase in temp, however, the actual has been 1.53, for both water and air. so the empirical does not match the model, the model's factors are based on, something, but it's not clear what.


    These are the kind of articles that do not help the argument:

    RISK ASSESSMENT
    Their risk assessment stems from the objective stated in the 2015 Paris Agreement regarding climate change that society keep average global temperatures 'well below' a 2C (3.6F) increase from what they were before the Industrial Revolution.
    Even if that objective is met, a global temperature increase of 1.5C (2.7F) is still categorised as 'dangerous,' meaning it could create substantial damage to human and natural systems.
    A temperature increase greater than 3C (5.4F) could lead to what the researchers term 'catastrophic' effects.
    An increase greater than 5C (9F) could lead to 'unknown' consequences which they describe as beyond catastrophic including potentially existential threats.
    The spectre of existential threats is raised to reflect the grave risks to human health and species extinction from warming beyond 5 C, which has not been experienced for at least the past 20 million years.


    Read more: 1-in-20 chance climate change will wipe out humanity | Daily Mail Online
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
    This link to substantiate the claim was imbedded in your article:

    1-in-20 chance climate change will wipe out humanity | Daily Mail Online

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    Galactic Ruler Spookycolt's Avatar
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    I highly doubt this will wipe out humans, we are a bit more resilient than you think.

    You will notice how the link in the OP skips over the part of exactly what will happen.

    They just say it may end but don't tell us how.

    That right there is a sign they have no clue what they are talking about.

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