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Thread: Climate change is ‘not as bad as we thought’ say scientists

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    Climate change is ‘not as bad as we thought’ say scientists

    As we the so called deniers have been saying for years.

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/95...-bad-on-planet

    It predicted that the impact could be up to 45 per cent less intense than is widely accepted.

    But the study emerged as other scientists said winter waves pounding the Scottish and Irish coasts have grown grow by up to 5ft 6in (1.7metres) over the past 70 years.

    Rising sea levels and more intense storms are in line with global warming forecasts.

    The study questioning the future intensity of climate change was carried out by American climatologist Judith Curry and UK mathematician Nick Lewis.

    It is based on analysing the warming effect of greenhouse gases and other drivers of climate change, from the mid 19th century until 2016.

    It forecast that future warming will be between 30 per cent and 45 per cent lower than suggested by simulations carried out by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel one Climate Change.

    The study in the American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Climate predicts temperature rises of 1.66C compared to one IPCC forecast of 3.1C and 1.33C compared to another IPCC study predicting 1.9C.

    The 2015 Paris climate agreement sought to limit climate change to 2C above pre-industrial levels and no more than 1.5C if possible.

    Mr Lewis, said: “Our results imply that, for any future emissions scenario, future warming is likely to be substantially lower than the central computer model-simulated level projected by the IPCC, and highly unlikely to exceed that level.”

    Governments around the world base their preparation for tackling climate change on the IPCC models.

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    Southern Strategy Liberal OldGaffer's Avatar
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    From your link: “However, a separate study by Plymouth University and French colleagues says that average winter wave heights along the Atlantic coast of Western Europe have been rising for almost seven decades.

    The coastlines of Scotland and Ireland have seen the largest increases, with the average height of winter waves more than 2ft 4in (0.7metres) higher than in 1948.”
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    Quote Originally Posted by ptif219 View Post
    As we the so called deniers have been saying for years.

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/95...-bad-on-planet
    New studies come in regularly. Some indicate that things are worse than generally accepted. Some indicate they aren't as bad as generally accepted. What reasonable people do is look to the broader meta-analyses, like the IPCC reports, which involve teams of top experts reviewing all that scientific literature, across the whole range, and then summarizing the current state of the research, including probability ranges for various prospects. What partisans do, by comparison, is to cherry-pick individual studies that happen to say things they want to believe.

    For my own part, I haven't put in the 10,000 or so hours of serious work that would be needed for me to take a meaningful, independent view about whether to believe those who say the IPCC is being too conservative, or too alarmist. So, instead, I do the reasonable thing and go with a working assumption that they've got it about right. Those who cherry-pick individual studies that contradict that consensus opinion, without themselves having done the years of full-time work that would be needed to develop an informed opinion on the matter, should take a step back and ask themselves on what basis do they justify doing so.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OldGaffer View Post
    From your link: “However, a separate study by Plymouth University and French colleagues says that average winter wave heights along the Atlantic coast of Western Europe have been rising for almost seven decades.

    The coastlines of Scotland and Ireland have seen the largest increases, with the average height of winter waves more than 2ft 4in (0.7metres) higher than in 1948.”
    Good news for any budding surfing business.

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    Senior Member NeoVsMatrix's Avatar
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    either way.. they also confirm that global warming is happening... knowing that the worst case studies are drawing really bad scenarios, up to the point where they say it's already to o late to stop it.. and others say the impact is going to be much lower and less critical.. this study now is somewhere in the middle.

    if you make 100 studies, with different approaches, and different anticipations, you will get a range from "nearly no impact" all the way to "5 degrees C increase".. the truth lies somewhere in between , one would assume, and where exactly we will be landing, is also depending on who is fighting climate change, to what degree, and starting when.

    So I don't know how this quoted report in the OP can be seen in any way as " climate change is not true", or as a relief to the concerns of what will come with climate change.
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    Quote Originally Posted by NeoVsMatrix View Post
    either way.. they also confirm that global warming is happening... knowing that the worst case studies are drawing really bad scenarios, up to the point where they say it's already to o late to stop it.. and others say the impact is going to be much lower and less critical.. this study now is somewhere in the middle.

    if you make 100 studies, with different approaches, and different anticipations, you will get a range from "nearly no impact" all the way to "5 degrees C increase".. the truth lies somewhere in between , one would assume, and where exactly we will be landing, is also depending on who is fighting climate change, to what degree, and starting when.

    So I don't know how this quoted report in the OP can be seen in any way as " climate change is not true", or as a relief to the concerns of what will come with climate change.
    I'd go a step further and point out that in the old-fashioned sense of the word "conservative," the conservative approach here would be to err on the side of caution by assuming the truth falls somewhat to the more severe end of the spectrum, rather than run for luck hoping that the truth falls to the less severe end.

    Think of the consequences of being wrong in each direction.

    If climate change isn't as bad as we think, and thus efforts based on the consensus wind up being an overreaction, what is lost? We'll wind up with cleaner air and slower consumption of limited natural resources. There will be some short-term harm associated with slowing down the economy while we're focused on greenhouse gas reductions. But that will be almost entirely offset but a "relief rally" when we later realize we don't need to worry and take our foot off the brake. Thus, viewed over the longer term, even if we turn out to be overly cautious, we'll wind up in roughly the same place as if we hadn't been so cautious.

    By comparison, if climate change is worse than we think, and we do too little to combat it, what have we lost? Well, in a lot of cases, we will have bought ourselves the debt of paying a "pound of cure" where an "ounce of prevention" would have avoided it. It takes far more effort to mitigate an environmental harm after it's been incurred than simply to avoid it. And, in some cases, the harm we do will be effectively impossible to remedy, along human timescales or maybe ever. For example, species lost due to avoidable warming aren't coming back. Many of the harms we fail to avoid will effectively be permanent -- no amount of money is going to rebuild a shattered ecosystem. We could wind up with a less productive, less livable environment for countless generations.

    As between those two scenarios, I'd much rather be over-cautious and realize in a couple decades that we can take our foot off the brake than to be overly reckless and realize in a couple decades that we can't undo much of that harm we might easily have avoided had we acted sooner. The conservative approach would be to err on the side of caution.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slartibartfast View Post
    Good news for any budding surfing business.
    How much surfing is being done on the North Sea coast?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Arkady View Post
    New studies come in regularly. Some indicate that things are worse than generally accepted. Some indicate they aren't as bad as generally accepted. What reasonable people do is look to the broader meta-analyses, like the IPCC reports, which involve teams of top experts reviewing all that scientific literature, across the whole range, and then summarizing the current state of the research, including probability ranges for various prospects. What partisans do, by comparison, is to cherry-pick individual studies that happen to say things they want to believe.

    For my own part, I haven't put in the 10,000 or so hours of serious work that would be needed for me to take a meaningful, independent view about whether to believe those who say the IPCC is being too conservative, or too alarmist. So, instead, I do the reasonable thing and go with a working assumption that they've got it about right. Those who cherry-pick individual studies that contradict that consensus opinion, without themselves having done the years of full-time work that would be needed to develop an informed opinion on the matter, should take a step back and ask themselves on what basis do they justify doing so.
    What this shows is the models are exaggerated lies

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    Quote Originally Posted by OldGaffer View Post
    From your link: “However, a separate study by Plymouth University and French colleagues says that average winter wave heights along the Atlantic coast of Western Europe have been rising for almost seven decades.

    The coastlines of Scotland and Ireland have seen the largest increases, with the average height of winter waves more than 2ft 4in (0.7metres) higher than in 1948.”

    Waves are always high in winter. In Florida there are very few surfers that can surf in summer

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    Quote Originally Posted by NeoVsMatrix View Post
    either way.. they also confirm that global warming is happening... knowing that the worst case studies are drawing really bad scenarios, up to the point where they say it's already to o late to stop it.. and others say the impact is going to be much lower and less critical.. this study now is somewhere in the middle.

    if you make 100 studies, with different approaches, and different anticipations, you will get a range from "nearly no impact" all the way to "5 degrees C increase".. the truth lies somewhere in between , one would assume, and where exactly we will be landing, is also depending on who is fighting climate change, to what degree, and starting when.

    So I don't know how this quoted report in the OP can be seen in any way as " climate change is not true", or as a relief to the concerns of what will come with climate change.
    You mean we have natural climate change

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