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Thread: Alarm rises as North Korea threatens attack

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    Alarm rises as North Korea threatens attack

    More deterioration in the North/South Korea situation. It appears that a conflict may be a near inevitability.

    Quote Originally Posted by Financial Times
    Link

    North Korea threatened to scrap all military assurance agreements with South Korea on Thursday and warned of an immediate attack should Seoul intrude on the disputed maritime border, further raising tensions on the peninsula.

    Pyongyang’s threat to abandon the agreements – designed to prevent accidental armed clashes and protect the safety of South Korean workers in a Northern factory enclave – came as Seoul elevated its alert level and began anti-submarine exercises off the west coast of the peninsula.

    .: Read the rest of this article :.

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    All too unlikely; military engagement is a near impossibility— regardless of whatever rhetoric the opposing sides use.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sinopec View Post
    All too unlikely; military engagement is a near impossibility— regardless of whatever rhetoric the opposing sides use.
    I would like to think that could be the case, but I don't hold out a lot of hope with Kim Jong Il running the show in North Korea.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BoogyMan View Post
    I would like to think that could be the case, but I don't hold out a lot of hope with Kim Jong Il running the show in North Korea.
    It is. No one, including North Korea, wants to go to total or sanctioned war by any means. When it comes to that decision, anyway, it's likely made by the generals who essentially hold more power than he. The same war-mongering pops up every time there is an international incident, and nothing has happened.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sinopec View Post
    It is. No one, including North Korea, wants to go to total or sanctioned war by any means. When it comes to that decision, anyway, it's likely made by the generals who essentially hold more power than he. The same war-mongering pops up every time there is an international incident, and nothing has happened.
    I haven't seen the complete withdrawal of diplomatic relations like we are seeing currently for quite some time between such antagonistic neighbors as North and South Korea. I hope you are right, I fear you are wrong.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BoogyMan View Post
    I haven't seen the complete withdrawal of diplomatic relations like we are seeing currently for quite some time between such antagonistic neighbors as North and South Korea. I hope you are right, I fear you are wrong.
    Yes, you have. You've seen it when Lee was elected; and before that with other ship incidents and failed assassination attempts, military drills, and the more recent nuclear actions; and so on. I'm not wrong. North Korea allegedly exploded a nuclear bomb, and then some, and nothing happened in return; why would war break over a ship? South Korea isn't exactly one to have its own "splendid little war".

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sinopec View Post
    Yes, you have. You've seen it when Lee was elected; and before that with other ship incidents and failed assassination attempts, military drills, and the more recent nuclear actions; and so on. I'm not wrong. North Korea allegedly exploded a nuclear bomb, and then some, and nothing happened in return; why would war break over a ship? South Korea isn't exactly one to have its own "splendid little war".
    That takes care of the South--and I agree. None of us can adequately understand NK's particular calculus (particularly if it doesn't get what it wants out of this incident), but it seems that war is far from likely at this point.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sinopec View Post
    Yes, you have. You've seen it when Lee was elected; and before that with other ship incidents and failed assassination attempts, military drills, and the more recent nuclear actions; and so on. I'm not wrong. North Korea allegedly exploded a nuclear bomb, and then some, and nothing happened in return; why would war break over a ship? South Korea isn't exactly one to have its own "splendid little war".
    Did the two sides declare an end to the observance of agreements that are actually designed to prevent a conflict over maritime incursions? I don't remember that if that happened during the claimed nuclear detonation by NK. I remember a great deal of fear in the region at the time though.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BoogyMan View Post
    Did the two sides declare an end to the observance of agreements that are actually designed to prevent a conflict over maritime incursions? I don't remember that if that happened during the claimed nuclear detonation by NK. I remember a great deal of fear in the region at the time though.
    In short, yes. A few examples:

    Jan 2009:
    Communist North Korea has said it is scrapping all military and political agreements signed with the South, accusing Seoul of hostile intent.
    BBC NEWS | Asia-Pacific | North Korea tears up agreements
    May 2009:
    Pyongyang –APA. Pyongyang announced that it will tear up the ceasefire agreement signed in 1953 and ending the Korean War, APA reports.
    APA - North Korea tears up ceasefire agreement

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    The question might be...would China permit NK to start a war with the south?

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