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Thread: Putin's next target: Belarus

  1. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by bajisima View Post
    That I think was over religion wasn't it? I think sometimes it goes back to the old saying that if "people are working, fed and happy" they get along, when they aren't they turn on each other.
    Religion played a role but it was second fiddle to the geopolitics of the nations in question. You have to get into over a 100 years of the history of the region, bearing in mind that you have to navigate a huge body of work falsifying history on all sides, identify proper historians and points of agreement on all sides. They do agree a lot but where it gets moronic is how most of "patriotic" histories on all sides justify the evil done in the name of their nation and trivialize the crimes, and how they create false narratives amplifying the crimes of other nations. Add some more spices to the mix, like US and Russian meddling, and you get a magic potion that would blow the lid off of any stable system.

    Those animosities are still being exploited to this day because they serve as a useful distraction from the ineptitude of politicians in power.
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  2. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Man View Post
    I am hearing from many sources in Russian media and online, military, intel, and political experts, that Putin will invade neighboring Belarus next year.

    Ties between Putin and the Belarusian dictator, Lukashenko, are getting very strained. Article from just today:



    Belarus' Top Experts Ordered to Withdraw from Russian-Led Customs Union

    Putin is said to be fucking sick of Lukashenko and his endless crap.

    Many highly competent and well informed people in Russia are hinting there may be an "operation" against Lukashenko next year.

    The way it couod go down, will be as follows. Pro-Russian "popular committees" will rise up in several Belarusian cities, where these folks are already secretly in place, including Brest, the home of the medieval fortress of same name where heroic Soviet troops in 1941 staged a legendary, immortalized, though doomed, of course, last stand against Nazi invaders. These popular committees will accuse Lukashenko of selling out to the West and betraying the ideals of the Slavic Orthodox Christian Russian World, and demand he step down. Lukashenko, being the despot that he is, will, naturally, order a crackdown on them. However, his military and secret police, KGB (yep, in Belarus, they kept the old name ), are highly infiltrated by the Russians, quite frankly, most if his generals, today, are loyal more to Moscow than to Minsk (their own capital). The actual Russian forces could sweep in, perhaps under pretext of defending their air base in Belarus. They and their local allies would crush any Belarusian forces who remain loyal to Lukashenko, and take down the man himself, arrest or even kill him. Then, a puppet government, perhaps a junta made up of those pro-Russian generals, is installed in Minsk. Or maybe even Belarus is annexed altogether, but I doubt that.

    Belarus, as is, is evenly split on Russia. Some support Putin, others - the West and democracy. In Donbass, there are notable volunteers from Belarus fighting for both the pro-Russian rebels and for Ukraine. Hundreds of Belarusians on each side. The pro-Western nationalists may take up arms against the Russians, especially if Ukraine and perhaps Poland help provide them those arms. But they would have to deal with not only Russian military, but their own army and KGB, again, loyal to Putin, most of them; and, perhaps, also with their own fellow citizens, including those guys now among the rebels in Donbass, who could, with the Russians blessing, form own armed militias to support the "popular committees" and the "Russian World" against these "traitors"... Against such odds, they won't, I fear, last very long.

    We shall see what transpires. I hope this doesn't actualky happen. But if, and when it does, what, I wonder, will Trump do? He has criticized Obama for being "weak" and allowing Putin take Crinea from Ukraine. What will he do, if Putin starts fucking up Belarus next year?
    Highly possible.

    It seems to be Putin's strategy to invade one country per American President. He probably believes that's what he can get away with. And so far he's been right.

    I suspect a President Trump would have a more vigorous response than President Obama, depending on the resistance of Belarus. But would he go to war with Russia over it? I doubt it.
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  3. #13
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    Did not Lukashenko himself wanted to become leader of Russia after collapse of Soviet union. I heard something like that.

    Anyway, who cares if Russia will take whiterussia. Belarus is anyway more russian than many oblasts inside Russia.

    Take it, why not. Nobody wont notice it or care.
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  4. #14
    Member tnbskts's Avatar
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    So is Putin going to install a puppet or just annex Belarus and turn it into part of Russia?

    If he does, I wonder what his dear good friend Donald Trump will do.
    Last edited by tnbskts; 17th March 2017 at 06:28 PM.

  5. #15
    The Un-Holy One The Man's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tnbskts View Post
    So is Putin going to install a puppet or just annex Belarus and turn it into part of Russia?

    If he does, I wonder what his dear good friend Donald Trump will do.
    Puppet military junta is most likely. But, we'll see what happens.
    Last edited by The Man; 17th March 2017 at 09:05 PM.

  6. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by bajisima View Post
    Agree but isn't that due to their economic problems?
    Or are their economic problems the result of people not getting along. All trade is based on trust.

  7. #17
    The Un-Holy One The Man's Avatar
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    Russia's leadership is angling to annex its closest western neighbor during upcoming military drills, according to the former leader of Georgia. Mikheil Saakashvili made the comments on the anniversary of his own country’s brief conflict with Moscow that resulted in Russian troops cordoning off Georgia’s two northern regions.

    Referring to the much anticipated joint Russian-Belarusian drill in the Baltic region, the former president said: “What we are seeing in Belarus, I think that Russia is planning to take and annex Belarus.” Saakashvili, who is a longtime critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin, spoke to told Baltic news agency BNS ahead of the drill, called Zapad and scheduled for September.

    Lithuania, a NATO ally that borders with Russia, has expressed concern that the drill indicates a wider threat to the alliance, constituting a “simulated” attack. NATO has demanded that Russia allows for more transparency in the drill, nominally set to involve around 12,000 troops. However, Russia has previously sparked much bigger exercises to go in tandem with drills such as Zapad, upping the number of troops from the promised levels.

    “During the drill, infrastructure will be brought in,” Saakashvili said. “In that sense the threat [from Russia] has not disappeared rather it only grows. It is just that until now Ukrainians have held it at its own borders [with Russia].”

    Saakashvili was president of Georgia until 2013, when he lost the election and left the country for Ukraine. He was made a Ukrainian citizen and appointed as governor of Ukraine’s Odessa region in 2015 by Petro Poroshenko after the revolution that brought the pro-Europe, pro-West government to power.

    His reputation as a hardline opponent of the Kremlin’s foreign policy and his imposing oratorical style made him popular quickly, and he was tipped to be the country’s next prime minister. But his often combative manner and vows to “clean up” corrupt Ukrainian institutions, put him at odds with established political figures. Ukraine stripped him of his citizenship in 2017 and he became a stateless person. He has dismissed it, and Georgia's previous decision to strip him of citizenship, as political decisions by governments that have fallen out with him.

    Despite enjoying Western support for his hawkish positions on Russia and for his campaigns against corruption, Saakashvili's leadership of Georgia was not without its critics. The European Union criticized his decision-making during a 2008 political crisis that sparked a five day war with Russia. Under Saakashvili's command, Georgian forces tried to restore control over two of its regions that have declared independence under Russian military sponsorship.

    Belarus’s President Alexander Lukashenko has dismissed concerns that Zapad is anything but a routine defense drill. “We traditionally carry out these drills with Russia,” he said in July. Although strongly reliant on Russia in most regards, the Belarusian government has shown some signs of disagreement with its bigger partner in what the two countries symbolically call “the Union State.”

    Despite a Kremlin push to deploy an airbase in Belarus, Minsk has resisted that initiative. The Union State relationship— a post-Soviet branding of Minsk and Moscow’s close relationship—looked in minor jeopardy earlier this year when Russia responded to Belarus’s looser visa-regime for Westerners by starting border checks between the two countries.
    Russia Plans to Annex Belarus in Military Drill, Says Georgia's Ex-President

    I don't put much credence in Saakashvili. But, who knows what will happen...

  8. #18
    Veteran Member Dr.Knuckles's Avatar
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    GMy own pet theory: immigration into North America and Europe will increase, and oppression and poverty will increase everywhere else. At an exponential rate.

    For the simple reason that anyone anywhere else with the slightest bit of skill, gumption, ingenuity, drive or industry will LEAVE - and go live in North America or Europe.

    What hope does Belarus have? Whose going to modernize their government? Anyone capable has already left. They're in Germany - their kids will be engineers and law clerks and nurses. Fuck the home country.

    I met a Japanese lady the other day whose company sent her to Vancouver for two months. She worked here two months in the local office. Then promptly quit her job in Japan and applied for Permanent Residence. She said she worked 6 days a week, 14 hours a day in Japan. Came here to the same companies office and worked a compressed week, 9 days every two weeks, 8 to 5.

    She said "I'd rather wash dishes here and enjoy my life than be a professional there and be miserable"

    And yet another educated, skilled worker of child-bearing age leaves Japan, never to contribute there again.
    Last edited by Dr.Knuckles; 9th August 2017 at 12:14 PM.

  9. #19
    Veteran Member Dr.Knuckles's Avatar
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    The Man is clever, articulate, worldly... what does Russia get from him?

    Nothing.

    He's in Ontario.
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  10. #20
    The Covfefe are Coming! BitterPill's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dr.Knuckles View Post
    The Man is clever, articulate, worldly... what does Russia get from him?

    Nothing.

    He's in Ontario.
    Yeah... he and I hit a rough patch to start, but my admiration of him has grown since.
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