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Thread: Putin's next target: Belarus

  1. #1
    Fuck Trump The Man's Avatar
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    Putin's next target: Belarus

    I am hearing from many sources in Russian media and online, military, intel, and political experts, that Putin will invade neighboring Belarus next year.

    Ties between Putin and the Belarusian dictator, Lukashenko, are getting very strained. Article from just today:

    President Alexander Lukashenko has ordered the country's top customs experts to withdraw from their posts at the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).

    The move follows Lukashenko's refusal to sign the EAEU Customs Code in December 2016 in St. Petersburg. The Belarusian president refused to attend the meeting alongside the EAEU's other members: Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia

    “I did not sign the Customs Code because many things that should be there do not work. I also asked to recall our main specialists from its authorities,” Lukashenko announced on Wednesday. He also said that some elements of the new code "did not work."

    An ongoing dispute focused on the Russian-Belarusian border has placed increasing strain on Moscow-Minsk ties in recent months.

    Russian security services reintroduced customs and migrations checks along the border in the Bryansk, Smolensk and Pskov regions on Feb. 7, while Belarusian food exports have also come under scrutiny.

    Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has criticized the decisions as damaging to bilateral ties. The Kremlin has dismissed concerns, arguing that increased security checks are only intended for non-Belarusian nationals.
    Belarus' Top Experts Ordered to Withdraw from Russian-Led Customs Union

    Putin is said to be fucking sick of Lukashenko and his endless crap.

    Many highly competent and well informed people in Russia are hinting there may be an "operation" against Lukashenko next year.

    The way it couod go down, will be as follows. Pro-Russian "popular committees" will rise up in several Belarusian cities, where these folks are already secretly in place, including Brest, the home of the medieval fortress of same name where heroic Soviet troops in 1941 staged a legendary, immortalized, though doomed, of course, last stand against Nazi invaders. These popular committees will accuse Lukashenko of selling out to the West and betraying the ideals of the Slavic Orthodox Christian Russian World, and demand he step down. Lukashenko, being the despot that he is, will, naturally, order a crackdown on them. However, his military and secret police, KGB (yep, in Belarus, they kept the old name ), are highly infiltrated by the Russians, quite frankly, most if his generals, today, are loyal more to Moscow than to Minsk (their own capital). The actual Russian forces could sweep in, perhaps under pretext of defending their air base in Belarus. They and their local allies would crush any Belarusian forces who remain loyal to Lukashenko, and take down the man himself, arrest or even kill him. Then, a puppet government, perhaps a junta made up of those pro-Russian generals, is installed in Minsk. Or maybe even Belarus is annexed altogether, but I doubt that.

    Belarus, as is, is evenly split on Russia. Some support Putin, others - the West and democracy. In Donbass, there are notable volunteers from Belarus fighting for both the pro-Russian rebels and for Ukraine. Hundreds of Belarusians on each side. The pro-Western nationalists may take up arms against the Russians, especially if Ukraine and perhaps Poland help provide them those arms. But they would have to deal with not only Russian military, but their own army and KGB, again, loyal to Putin, most of them; and, perhaps, also with their own fellow citizens, including those guys now among the rebels in Donbass, who could, with the Russians blessing, form own armed militias to support the "popular committees" and the "Russian World" against these "traitors"... Against such odds, they won't, I fear, last very long.

    We shall see what transpires. I hope this doesn't actualky happen. But if, and when it does, what, I wonder, will Trump do? He has criticized Obama for being "weak" and allowing Putin take Crinea from Ukraine. What will he do, if Putin starts fucking up Belarus next year?
    Thanks from bajisima, Amelia and res

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    Veteran Member bajisima's Avatar
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    Met someone from Kazakhstan who moved here recently and we got talking about politics and such. He said that much of the old former Soviet Union do want to go back with Russia. He said he came here to the US because it was bad there. Said the same about Belarus, it wouldn't surprise him if they went to Russia as many of the people want to. Do you think that's true? Are many of those countries doing poorly economically and think Russia can make it better?
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    People spent a lot of time talking about North Korea or China or Iran, but my money has always been on Eastern Europe as the spark-- yet again --of the next totally out of control world war. There are just too many groups who all absolutely despise each other, all right on top of each other, and every time it seems one group has buried the hatchet with another, you turn the page and Bosnia is a cauldron of murder, torture and rape, Russia is bitch-slapping everybody...some asshole is going to rear up and chuck a bomb in the name of the Archduke any minute and the dominoes will fall.
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    Veteran Member bajisima's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by splansing View Post
    People spent a lot of time talking about North Korea or China or Iran, but my money has always been on Eastern Europe as the spark-- yet again --of the next totally out of control world war. There are just too many groups who all absolutely despise each other, all right on top of each other, and every time it seems one group has buried the hatchet with another, you turn the page and Bosnia is a cauldron of murder, torture and rape, Russia is bitch-slapping everybody...some asshole is going to rear up and chuck a bomb in the name of the Archduke any minute and the dominoes will fall.
    Agree but isn't that due to their economic problems?

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    Quote Originally Posted by bajisima View Post
    Agree but isn't that due to their economic problems?
    I don't know. Is that what sent Crotia/Serbia into unmitigated genocide? That's some seriously deep hatred.

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    Veteran Member bajisima's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by splansing View Post
    I don't know. Is that what sent Crotia/Serbia into unmitigated genocide? That's some seriously deep hatred.
    That I think was over religion wasn't it? I think sometimes it goes back to the old saying that if "people are working, fed and happy" they get along, when they aren't they turn on each other.
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    Thought Provocateur NightSwimmer's Avatar
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    Putin prolly just needs their tractors.
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    Quote Originally Posted by bajisima View Post
    Met someone from Kazakhstan who moved here recently and we got talking about politics and such. He said that much of the old former Soviet Union do want to go back with Russia. He said he came here to the US because it was bad there. Said the same about Belarus, it wouldn't surprise him if they went to Russia as many of the people want to. Do you think that's true? Are many of those countries doing poorly economically and think Russia can make it better?
    Quote Originally Posted by NightSwimmer View Post
    Putin prolly just needs their tractors.
    Well, there are two groups of people, in Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus, who support this shit.

    1. Communists/neo-Sovietists, people nostalgic for the old Union and who want it to rise again.
    2. Pan-Slavic nationalists, who believe that Russians, Ukrainians, and Belarusians are not only one country, but one nation, one single people, descended from the ancient Rus tribe (historically true, though questionably relevant couple thousand years later...); and that the modern political borders are fake, artificially drawn by Soviet Communists, and thus illegitimate. They want the three nations to reunite again, but not in a new Soviet Union, rather - a new Orthodox Christian Slavic empire, new Holy Rus.

    Putin, meanwhile, has own ambitions. Belarus has a strong agricultural sector, especially - dairy farming. Their dairy products not only feed their own people, but dominate the Russian market as well! Russia's own dairy farmers actually cannot compete with the Belarusians, in quantity or quality of output! Putin would love to directly control that.

    Demographically, Belarus is very close and compatible with Russia, I would even say much more than Ukraine. Ethnic Russians are 8.3% of population; Belarusians - 83.7%. However, only 11.9% of population speak the titular language, Belarusian; while 72% use only Russian, which is co-official in Belarus. Majority of Belarusians watch Russian TV and are exposed to as much Putinist propaganda as any Russian citizen in Russia.

    Since the 90s, they have been working on a Union State, but that's not really going anywhere, at this point: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_State

    Who is to say Putin won't want to speed things along, soon? Shit...
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  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by bajisima View Post
    That I think was over religion wasn't it? I think sometimes it goes back to the old saying that if "people are working, fed and happy" they get along, when they aren't they turn on each other.
    Orthodox (Serbs) vs. Catholic (Croats), yes. And Orthodox vs. Muslims, against Bosnians and Albanians...
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    Veteran Member Micro Machines Champion, Race Against Time Champion Tedminator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Man View Post
    2. Pan-Slavic nationalists, who believe that Russians, Ukrainians, and Belarusians are not only one country, but one nation, one single people, descended from the ancient Rus tribe (historically true, though questionably relevant couple thousand years later...); and that the modern political borders are fake, artificially drawn by Soviet Communists, and thus illegitimate. They want the three nations to reunite again, but not in a new Soviet Union, rather - a new Orthodox Christian Slavic empire, new Holy Rus.
    Those fucking swedes again


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rus'_(name)
    ..the name Rus' is derived from an Old Norse term for "the men who row" as rowing was the main method of navigating the rivers of Eastern Europe, and that it could be linked to the Swedish coastal area of Roslagen..


    Last edited by Tedminator; 15th March 2017 at 06:32 PM.

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