Breaking news: Florida has decided to frontload

Jun 2011
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This is an important cross-post from:The 2012 Republican Primary/Caucus Calendar



Multiple sources are reporting that Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee for Florida has indeed decided on January 31st for the Florida primary, thus leapfrogging in front of of IA, NH, SC and NV.


The one report is here.
The other is here.
Another one is here.
Another one including a possible IA caucus date in 2012 is here.
Bob Schieffer from CBS talks about this here.

The GREEN PAPERS has it here.


This is the same thing that Florida did four years ago, and for it, it lost 1/2 of it's delegates.
This is big news as it will affect the primary calendar in many ways and cause lots of repercussions:


@Peter HambyCNN: Iowa GOP chair Matt Strawn blasts FL's "arrogance" & "petulant behavior," calls on RNC to strip all delegates to '12 convention


@Peter HambyCNN: NH Sec of State does not rule out holding New Hampshire primary this year. As in, 2011.


@chu cktodd: Per @Alex NBCNews, IA GOP Chair says he'll set the IA caucus date AFTER NH sets its primary date.


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Though not entirely unexpected, this is a big story for the primary season and could have repercussions including moving the IOWA caucuses into 2011!

Number of delegates as stake: 99. If Florida loses half of them, then only 50 or maybe even 49 delegates will end up at the convention.

UPDATE: The RNC has confirmed that Florida will lose half of it's delegates.

Rules of the Republican Party. Rule 15(b)(1) states

"No primary, caucus, or convention to elect, select, allocate, or bind delegates to the national convention shall occur prior to the first Tuesday in March in the year in which a national convention is held. Except Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada may begin their processes at any time on or after February 1 in the year in which a national convention is held ..."

Rule 16(a) indicates that Florida will forfeit 50% of their National Convention delegates.

"If any state or state Republican Party violates The Rules of the Republican Party relating to the timing ... the number of delegates to the national convention from that state shall be reduced by fifty percent (50%) ... "




This means that at this time, instead of 2,422 delegates, there will be 2,373 delegates. Magic number is now: 1,187 (but this can change again: if the three early states also move their primaries/caucuses to put them in front of Florida, then they will ALSO lose 50% of their delegates.
 
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Can someone explain to me a tangible benefit for doing this?
I see no tangible benefit, but...

Many states have made a stink about the early states and question why these states should always be allowed to go early. First it was IA and NH. Then SC came along and then NV. In a certain way, I think these four early states make sense: each one is a "relatively" small state, one from each region of the Union.

Florida and Michigan both made a big stink about this in 2008 and we saw the drama of it play out in the Democratic Primary contest between now President Obama and now Sec'y of State Clinton.

If you ask me, this is just one more good reason to hold a national constitutional convention and one of the additions to the new constitution would be the regulation of elections in the USA, including the primary process. Larry Sabato speaks very strongly about this in his book "Toward a more Perfect Union".
 

jackalope

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I bet Florida is betting on them not sticking with the sanction. I don't think either the Dems or the Reps did last time ... even tho they threatened to.

Whoa, scratch that. Just read an article that said the rules allow no waiver or reverse of sanction. And ALSO, that the other early states are ALSO going to lose half their delegates, b/c they're moving up out of turn, in response to Florida. Or something like that.



(snip ... )

But there is a catch. The officials confirmed that the rules imposing a 50% loss of delegates for states that go out of their allotted turn leave no discretion to the RNC, to either reverse or strengthen any penalty. Not only that, but they apply to all states that hold their binding contests too early — including New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina for moving into January. (Iowa will be exempted, because technically its caucus does not formally elect and pledge its delegates on the caucus date — this is done at a later state convention.)

more: RNC Officials: Florida Will Lose Half Of Delegates — And So Will Three Early States | Election 2012
 
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Whoa, scratch that. Just read an article that said the rules allow no waiver or reverse of sanction. And ALSO, that the other early states are ALSO going to lose half their delegates, b/c they're moving up out of turn, in response to Florida. Or something like that.
Correct: here is the exact rule:

Rules of the Republican Party. Rule 15(b)(1) states

"No primary, caucus, or convention to elect, select, allocate, or bind delegates to the national convention shall occur prior to the first Tuesday in March in the year in which a national convention is held. Except Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada may begin their processes at any time on or after February 1 in the year in which a national convention is held ..."

Rule 16(a) indicates that Florida will forfeit 50% of their National Convention delegates.

"If any state or state Republican Party violates The Rules of the Republican Party relating to the timing ... the number of delegates to the national convention from that state shall be reduced by fifty percent (50%) ... "

And as I wrote in this post on my ongoing 2012 GOP delegate thread, of course MI is waiting to see what happens with FL before it moves it's primary date.

The above quote is also now in the original posting.
 
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First response to Florida: Nevada is staying put.

Politico is reporting that NV is not moving it's caucuses (I am publishing this article almost entirely in it's entirety due to its brevity and due to the extreme importance of many details, and with thanks to POLITICO):

"Nevada Republicans will allow Florida to jump ahead of them on the presidential nominating calendar to preserve the state’s full slate of delegates to the Republican National Convention, state GOP chairwoman Amy Tarkanian said Friday.

Like South Carolina and New Hampshire, Nevada is in a quandary — forfeit coveted early status to Florida, which on Friday jumped its primary to Jan. 31, or face losing half its convention delegates.

“Because we have such a small amount of delegates, we’ll probably stay at the beginning of February,” Tarkanian told POLITICO. “The biggest concern we have is to make sure we’re first in the West. If we can do [the caucuses] in the beginning of February, that’s what we’ll do.”

Republican National Committee rules allowed only New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina to hold nominating contests before March 6, but they faced penalties if they scheduled their contests before Feb. 1. The RNC deadline for submitting primary or caucus dates is Saturday.

Republican National Committee rules allowed only New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina to hold nominating contests before March 6, but they faced penalties if they scheduled their contests before Feb. 1. The RNC deadline for submitting primary or caucus dates is Saturday.

The 11-member Nevada GOP executive board, which met Friday evening to discuss its options, will convene again Saturday night to formalize the decision. It will have to change the party’s legal bylaws, which were altered this summer to tether the caucuses to the Saturday after the New Hampshire primary.

The logical date for the Nevada caucus is Saturday, Feb. 4. That would come between Florida’s rogue primary and three days before non-binding caucuses in Colorado and Minnesota and Missouri’s non-binding primary...."


Originally, the GREEN PAPERS had the NV caucuses listed for 02/18. But Politico is right, because of the tethering rule, 02/04 would indeed be the logical date.

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As I read the article, the name "Tarkanian" jumped out at me.

Who is Amy Tarkanian?

She is the wife of former Republican Senatorial Candidate Danny Tarkanian (R-Tea Party Nation), who lost in the 2010 GOP NV Primary to Sharron Angle (R-Tea Party Express), who then in turn lost to Democratic incumbent Harry Reid. Amy Tarkanian's mother-in-law, Lois Tarkanian, switched sides after comments from Sharron Angle about women and began campaigning for Harry Reid. Her father-in-law, Jerry Tarkanian, is a well known and respected college basketball coach with an outstanding coaching record of 706-198.

My point is that when people talk about certain families being dynasty families in US politics, I think we are seeing one in the making here.
 
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Oh, and just a little humor from the GREEN PAPERS

This is part of their header banner at the top of their website:

"WE WERE BLOGGING BEFORE IT WAS COOL
"Established during the previous Millennium""

:) :) :)