Bye Bye Obamaconomy, Hello Trumpconomy!

Apr 2015
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2,240
Katmandu
The Atlanta Fed is predicting a solid fourth quarter, putting 2018 solidly above 3% annually.

Latest forecast: 2.7 percent — January 31, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.7 percent, on January 31, unchanged from January 22.
 
Likes: spyydrr
Apr 2015
13,165
2,240
Katmandu
The BEA numbers should be out soon.

Latest forecast: 2.7 percent — February 6, 2019


The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.7 percent on February 6, up from 2.5 percent on February 1.
 
Apr 2015
13,165
2,240
Katmandu
Woohoo, consumer confidence surged in February!

26 Feb. 2019




The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in February, following a decline in January. The Index now stands at 131.4 (1985=100), up from 121.7 in January. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – improved, from 170.2 to 173.5. The Expectations Index – based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions – increased from 89.4 last month to 103.4 this month.
 
Jan 2016
48,421
44,401
Colorado
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was implying in his Congressional testimony this morning that when the GDP figures for the 4th Quarter of 2018 are FINALLY released on Thursday, they will show that economic growth for 2018 as a whole will come in at LESS than 3.0%.

Gee. So much for all the BRAGGING we have seen here about 2018 being the first year of greater than 3% growth since 2005 (which was the maximal year of the housing bubble, anyway). And so much for Donald Trump's PROMISE to bring America back to 4% economic growth.

Donald Trump has FAILED to deliver on his KEY economic promises.
 
Apr 2015
13,165
2,240
Katmandu
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was implying in his Congressional testimony this morning that when the GDP figures for the 4th Quarter of 2018 are FINALLY released on Thursday, they will show that economic growth for 2018 as a whole will come in at LESS than 3.0%.

Gee. So much for all the BRAGGING we have seen here about 2018 being the first year of greater than 3% growth since 2005 (which was the maximal year of the housing bubble, anyway). And so much for Donald Trump's PROMISE to bring America back to 4% economic growth.

Donald Trump has FAILED to deliver on his KEY economic promises.
Nancy's shutdown is going to make it tight, if Q4 comes in at 2% or better we should make it. The Atlanta FED is calling it 1.9%.
 
Jan 2016
48,421
44,401
Colorado
Nancy's shutdown is going to make it tight, if Q4 comes in at 2% or better we should make it. The Atlanta FED is calling it 1.9%.
My calculations show that 4th Quarter GDP would have to come in at 2.4% or better to make 2018 come in at better than 3.0%.

2018 3rd Quarter GDP Growth was 3.4%
2018 2nd Quarter GDP Growth was 4.2%
2018 1st Quarter GDP Growth was 2.0%

Those sum up to 9.6. Call the currently unknown 4th Quarter GDP Growth rate x, and you have [9.6 + x]/4 = 3.0, or 9.6 + x = 12.0, so if x = 2.4, we would get a 2018 growth rate of exactly 3.0%.
 

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