Consumer Sentiment rises in September

May 2019
West Haven
This is a tricky market and the bottom is unknown, says Jurrien Timmer

Stocks fell sharply on Wednesday, adding to Wall Street’s poor start to the final quarter of 2019 as investors grapple with fears of an economic recession.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 540 points, or 2% to break below its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, two technical levels watched by traders. Visa was the worst-performing stock on the 30-stock index, sliding 2.8%.
The S&P 500 lost 1.9% to fall below its 100-day moving average as the industrials sector dropped 1.9%. Eaton Corp and Rockwell Automation were among the laggards in the sector. They both fell more than 3%.
The Nasdaq Composite slid 1.8% as large-cap tech companies followed the broader market lower. Amazon, Apple and Alphabet all dropped at least 0.9%.
Concern around the economy was sparked on Tuesday after the Institute for Supply Management said U.S. manufacturing activity fell last month to its lowest level in more than 10 years.
The weak data sent the major indexes tumbling on Tuesday, the first day of the fourth quarter. The Dow dropped more than 300 points while the S&P 500 slid 1.2%, their biggest one-day drops since Aug. 23.
“The market might be getting a little ahead of itself,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research. “We have to be reminded that manufacturing represents about 10% of our economy while services represents about 90%. The services side is strongly in expansionary mode.”
“You can’t just ignore this, but you have to take it with a grain of salt,” Stovall added.
Those losses were enough to wipe out the Dow and S&P 500′s gains for the entire third quarter. Both indexes gained 1.2% in the previous quarter.
Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, said the market will “want to see real progress” from the upcoming U.S.-China trade talks after the disappointing data. “Markets will be looking for positive commentary from both sides going into this meeting and tangible steps to an agreement immediately after,” he said in a note.
Chinese and U.S. officials are scheduled to meet in Washington next week. Both sides have been in a trade war since last year that has rattled investor sentiment and economic growth expectations.
Wall Street’s focus remained on the economic data as private payrolls growth slowed down in September, according to a report from ADP and Moody’s Analytics. Payrolls increased by 135,000 in September, a drop from 157,000 in August. The gains from August also reflected a downward revision of nearly 40,000 payrolls.
The data from ADP and Moody’s Analytics is seen by investors as a preview to the government’s monthly jobs report, which will be released Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
—CNBC’s Silvia Amaro contributed to this report.
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Former Staff
Jul 2014
I know that your are wishing for a recession just to spite Trump, but we aren't headed in that direction. Industrial production is still increasing and today the stock market is 36% higher than it was when Trump was elected.

Release Date: September 17, 2019

Industrial production rose 0.6 percent in August after declining 0.1 percent in July. Manufacturing production increased 0.5 percent, more than reversing its decrease in July. Factory output has increased 0.2 percent per month over the past four months after having decreased 0.5 percent per month during the first four months of the year. In August, the indexes for utilities and mining moved up 0.6 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively. At 109.9 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 0.4 percent higher in August than it was a year earlier.
Have never "wished" for a recession btw. And you can keep spinning it any way you want to, but certain sectors are taking a hit, again, largely due to the trade wars

Stocks slid on Wednesday, a second day of selling that has shattered a relatively calm period for Wall Street, as investors faced new evidence that global growth is threatened by the trade war. The S&P 500 was down about 2 percent and on track for its worst day since late August. The selling this week began after a key measure of manufacturing activity showed that factory output in the United States had slowed to levels last seen at the end of the financial crisis a decade ago. The data was the latest indication that the conflict between Washington and Beijing is chipping away at the industrial base in the United States, after having already dented Japan and Germany.

Although both the United States and China had taken measures to calm trade-war tensions, including delaying some expected tariffs, investors are worried that little progress has been made toward a long-term resolution of the conflict. Representatives from the two countries are expected to restart talks later this month.“This is the markets unequivocally insisting that there be verifiable, material progress in next week’s trade talks between the U.S. and China,” said Julian Emanuel, chief equity and derivatives strategist at brokerage firm BTIG.

Industrial companies and materials stocks — a category that includes chemical companies and fertilizer manufacturers — suffered the steepest drops by midday Wednesday. Airlines also fell sharply after Delta provided an updated forecast on third-quarter earnings that disappointed the market.