Do You Think There is a Big Blue Wave Coming?

[John T Ford]

So, nows your chance to go on the record.

How many still believe there is some big blue wave coming?

I don't believe there is a big blue wave coming.

In fact, I don't think there was ever a big blue wave coming.

I have seen no evidence of such, except for maybe some polls, but we all know how reliable they can be.

I would argue just the opposite.

Nearly every election since 2010 has been a referendum on the Democrat Party and the fake news MSM and that referendum will continue well past 2020.

 

[Jets]

I agree that the Democratic party has the advantage going into the midterm elections. Not because of President Trump, but because history has demonstrated the party that has both Congress and the WH ( in this case the GOP) tends to lose seats. Not sure if it’s a wave...


Jmo

 

[bajisima]

Have no idea. Cant predict anything anymore. A blue wave should be a slam dunk but who knows? NBC news in particular, seems to now be saying there might not be a big blue wave.

Republicans outpacing Democrats in early voting in key states, NBC News finds

 

[bajisima]

I agree that the Democratic party has the advantage going into the midterm elections. Not because of President Trump, but because history has demonstrated the party that has both Congress and the WH ( in this case the GOP) tends to lose seats. Not sure if it’s a wave...


Jmo

I would think under normal circumstances 23 seats isnt hard to get. But these days? Completely unpredictable.

 

[trumptman]

I posted something similar back at the beginning of the summer and my prediction then as now is that Republicans would lose a handful of seats in the House and would pick up a seat in the Senate.

My reasoning on this is for a couple different reasons. Clearly some pollsters are doing the equivalent of push polling. You can clearly see in the RCP generic avaerage where the Democratic support fell by several points and for large drops quite quickly. That mysteriously and magically happened....right around actual primary dates where there was an actual election result that the “polls” now had to match.

Second, taking an average of the polls is problematic. An average would work if they were in some sort of close spread or had something resembling agreement. However the spread on the polls last I looked was from even aka plus zero to +12 for the Democratic Party. Adding in the margin of error and you are at from +3 Republicans to +15 Democratic. Averaging such a spread doesn’ fix bias. It simply shows whatever is being measured can’t be measured correctly by experts. An 18 point spread is predictive of exactly nothing.

The economy is doing reasonably well and Trump favorable are up for him. You wonder what percentage of people are willing to expressive positive sentiments to news agencies that are found to be engaged in 92% negative coverage but within that dynamic the percentage seeing Trump positively has risen by several percentage points.

In the Democrats favor they have really brought in the money this year and they are fielding more candidates in more races than they have done for the last several cycles.

 

[John T Ford]

I agree that the Democratic party has the advantage going into the midterm elections. Not because of President Trump, but because history has demonstrated the party that has both Congress and the WH ( in this case the GOP) tends to lose seats. Not sure if it’s a wave...


Jmo

There have been exceptions to that rule as well.

 

[John T Ford]

Have no idea. Cant predict anything anymore. A blue wave should be a slam dunk but who knows? NBC news in particular, seems to now be saying there might not be a big blue wave.

Republicans outpacing Democrats in early voting in key states, NBC News finds

The news stories and polls usually get a little more accurate the closer we get to election night.

 

[KnotaFrayed]

Not going to try to predict, as some might. Seems to jinx whatever one might want.

One might ask if Americans have learned anything in the last two years, what it is they learned and how 2018 might be an indication of what they learned.

Of course, it could be a referendum on how well he who controls the propaganda. controls the elections, especially now that blatant lying seems to be allowed and even promoted by some, foreign and domestic, to the United States.

Is the free press "the enemy of the American people" or are those who try to float that boat, really the enemies of America, it's people and one of the institutions that keep it free?

 

[TheWahoo]

I don't know if there is a big blue wave, time will tell. I agree with our founders, that the House is the unit of government that is the closest to the people. Accordingly, as such, I have always felt that it is best when the House is controlled by a party different then that controlling the Senate or sitting in the Oval Office. Such a scenario best serves our system of checks and balances.

 

[John T Ford]

I don't know if there is a big blue wave, time will tell. I agree with our founders, that the House is the unit of government that is the closest to the people. Accordingly, as such, I have always felt that it is best when the House is controlled by a party different then that controlling the Senate or sitting in the Oval Office. Such a scenario best serves our system of checks and balances.

There is no big blue wave.

The Democrats will lose a landslide, just as they have in nearly every election since 2010.