Education and Trumpism

Sep 2017
3,705
4,636
Massachusetts
#1
A while back I pointed out the extremely high negative correlation, at the state level, between education and support for Trump. For example, the state with the highest education levels, Massachusetts, had one of the lowest Trump support percents in 2016, and the state with the lowest education levels, West Virginia, had the very highest vote Trump percent. This correlation also helped to explain the direction of political drift by states in recent years. Traditionally Republican states with high education levels, like Virginia and New Hampshire, have come to be reliable Democratic states, while traditional Democratic states with low education levels, like West Virginia, have come to be reliable for the Republicans. Viewed from that perspective, it's less surprising to see a state like Michigan falling to the Republicans.

Anyway, I was curious whether this held up at the county level, as well. I found the following:

What are the most educated counties in the US? - Decision Science News

Here are the top ten most educated counties (by percent with grad degree), followed by the ratio between Clinton votes and Trump votes in that county:

Arlington 4.6
Alexandria 4.3
Montgomery 3.9
D.C. 22.2 (no, that's not a typo)
Howard 2.2
Fairfax 2.3
Orange 3.2
New York 8.9
Tompkins 2.8
Washtenaw 2.5

As you can see, this isn't just a matter of Clinton having consistently won in all the best-educated counties.... it's a matter of Trump getting absolutely demolished, by margins over two-to-one. Even in red states, he wasn't remotely competitive in the highly educated counties.

I couldn't find a similar list of the least educated counties, but as a point of comparison, I did see that McDowell County is the least educated county in our least educated state. Trump got 3.2 votes there for every one Clinton got.
 
Feb 2010
32,513
22,304
between Moon and NYC
#3
A while back I pointed out the extremely high negative correlation, at the state level, between education and support for Trump. For example, the state with the highest education levels, Massachusetts, had one of the lowest Trump support percents in 2016, and the state with the lowest education levels, West Virginia, had the very highest vote Trump percent. This correlation also helped to explain the direction of political drift by states in recent years. Traditionally Republican states with high education levels, like Virginia and New Hampshire, have come to be reliable Democratic states, while traditional Democratic states with low education levels, like West Virginia, have come to be reliable for the Republicans. Viewed from that perspective, it's less surprising to see a state like Michigan falling to the Republicans.

Anyway, I was curious whether this held up at the county level, as well. I found the following:

What are the most educated counties in the US? - Decision Science News

Here are the top ten most educated counties (by percent with grad degree), followed by the ratio between Clinton votes and Trump votes in that county:

Arlington 4.6
Alexandria 4.3
Montgomery 3.9
D.C. 22.2 (no, that's not a typo)
Howard 2.2
Fairfax 2.3
Orange 3.2
New York 8.9
Tompkins 2.8
Washtenaw 2.5

As you can see, this isn't just a matter of Clinton having consistently won in all the best-educated counties.... it's a matter of Trump getting absolutely demolished, by margins over two-to-one. Even in red states, he wasn't remotely competitive in the highly educated counties.

I couldn't find a similar list of the least educated counties, but as a point of comparison, I did see that McDowell County is the least educated county in our least educated state. Trump got 3.2 votes there for every one Clinton got.

Have you done any correllations between race and education and voting patterns?

How about gender and education and voting patterns?

Religion and education and voting patterns?

(This may get delicate if we aren't careful.....)





..
 
Sep 2017
3,705
4,636
Massachusetts
#4
Are you trying to equate education with intelligence?
No. What would make you think that? The first mention of intelligence in this thread was yours.

I expect that natural intelligence is just about equally distributed throughout the country. There may be a slight tendency for IQs to be higher in some parts of the country than others, based on factors like childhood nutrition, pollution, and early development opportunities, but I expect that the differences are so small from one area to the next, in pure intelligence readings, as to produce little in the way of political tendencies.

Education levels, by comparison, vary very dramatically from one area to another.
 
Oct 2014
24,701
3,861
C-A-N-A-D-A-Eh
#5
I just wanted to be sure... most people that look to that analysis to try and say that republicans are stupid, that's why they are republican and if only they could be intelligent like democrats........

at least you recognize this would be incorrect.
 
Sep 2017
3,705
4,636
Massachusetts
#6
Have you done any correllations between race and education and voting patterns?

How about gender and education and voting patterns?

Religion and education and voting patterns?

(This may get delicate if we aren't careful.....)





..
I have not done those correlations -- I don't have data that breaks down education level by race and voting.
 
Nov 2015
2,598
799
UK
#9
Have you done any correllations between race and education and voting patterns?

How about gender and education and voting patterns?

Religion and education and voting patterns?

(This may get delicate if we aren't careful.....)





..
It's a bit obvious what agenda the OP is trying to fulfil despite all the flaws you've just pointed out.
 
Likes: THOR

StanStill

Former Staff
Dec 2013
11,393
12,245
Work
#10
It's a bit obvious what agenda the OP is trying to fulfil despite all the flaws you've just pointed out.
Sometimes the only way to get around facts is to insist that the person who said them had an "agenda". I think the agenda is pretty clear. To see if schooling makes people less likely to support Trump. Seems that it does.

Cue the legions of Trumpsters telling us that the school system is a hotbed of communist infiltrators inoculating people against the good word of Trump with all kinds of dangerous ideas like skepticism and logic and history.